Wed, Mar 13 2024, 11:25 AM
To the best of my knowledge my cat Myrtle, despite being at the top of the food chain, has never hunted eagle… But who can resist a good live bald eag...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 8:54 AM
A surge in refinance applications drove mortgage application volume higher for the second straight time last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association sa...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 4:03 PM
Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness
Heading into the 4pm hour, MBS are only down 6 ticks (.19) ...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 3:50 PM
Today brought the release of one of the most consequential economic reports that comes out on any given month: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI me...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 11:17 AM
“I heard that 80 percent of car accidents occur within one mile of a person's residence, so I moved.” But it turns out that moving doesn't improve you...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 9:51 AM
It's been a weird morning so far with core CPI coming in at 0.4 vs 0.3 forecast--something that should have certainly sent bonds scrambling into weake...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:18 PM
Super High Potential Energy Surrounding Tuesday's Data
Monday proved to be the quintessential placeholder tr...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates hit their best levels in more than a month by the end of last week after moving lower for 4 straight days. If you could only know one ...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 10:56 AM
When I was a teen, I worked a variety of jobs but never at a fast-food joint. No one made much money working at Mickey D’s or Dairy Queen. Now, in Cal...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 10:06 AM
February wasn't a fun month for rates, largely thanks to a surprise uptick in core inflation. On that point, both CPI and PCE agreed, but many analys...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:26 PM
All in All a Pretty Logical Week
It seems weird to consider, but Friday's trading--and indeed, the week's tr...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:08 PM
It was a hotly anticipated week for interest rates due to the arrival of the first batch of big ticket economic data since the Inflation report that c...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 1:34 PM
Today's jobs report has proven to be one of the most extreme examples of competing narratives in the past year or so. The headline number wasn't too ...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 10:40 AM
“Horses have lower divorce rates. It's because they are in stable relationships.” Here on the Central Coast of California, there are plenty of horses ...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:53 PM
Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge
10yr yields are now decisively below the levels seen BEFORE the...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:21 PM
Since hitting 2 month highs last Tuesday, mortgage rates have mostly moved lower. The past 3 days have all seen solid improvements in response to eco...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 12:29 PM
Apart from Monday, which had no meaningful econ data, today was the best candidate for an uneventful day on what is otherwise an important data week. ...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 11:39 AM
“I saw a woman at Walmart with March Madness teeth... She was down to the final four.” No one is talking about 30-year mortgage interest rates heading...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:51 PM
Uneventful Gains Despite Apparent Market Movers
It was an interesting day for the bond market. Yields drop...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:37 PM
Conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates in the high 6 percent range have been available months now, and that didn't change in the past few weeks when r...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 11:35 AM
Here in Southern California, there are plenty of swimming pools and tennis courts, but none of them belong to me. Under the header of, “Why didn’t I t...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 9:18 AM
It's understandably nerve-wracking for fans of low rates to see a congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell on the calendar. Granted, some of tho...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 8:59 AM
Whether prompted by a tiny improvement in mortgage rates or the first stirrings of a spring market, mortgage activity reversed course last week. The M...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 4:32 PM
Gains Before and After Data
Today's big to-do was the ISM Non-Manufacturing data at 10am ET. Of the two ISM...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market. Bonds can move for several reasons at any given moment, but a key consideration these days ...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 10:55 AM
Conference season is cranking back up, and some believe that apple orchards are in danger of extinction give the amount of “applewood smoked” bacon in...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 10:39 AM
Yields spiked in the first half of February as the jobs report and CPI both suggested a stubbornly resilient economy and inflation outlook. That was ...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates were at the best levels in 2 weeks as of last Friday and today's offerings are only modestly higher. One counterpoint is that it didn'...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:27 PM
Sleepy Start to What May Be an Exciting Week
Every now and then the bond market makes a case for a 4 day wor...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 11:09 AM
We've been looking forward to the first week of March since the Feb 13th CPI report because this is the first time since then that we'll see a top tie...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 10:58 AM
Last year I mentioned that today is the only day that is also a command. A few folks corrected me, saying that “March first” fits that bill as well. L...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 4:56 PM
Bonds Leading Off in a Friendly Direction
With ISM Manufacturing, Friday brought the only other reasonably i...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 3:51 PM
Sometimes you'll see coverage of economic data that conforms to certain template with a predictable details and word counts. Rarely, the word count w...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 3:24 PM
The average lender was offering slightly higher rates this morning when compared to yesterdays latest levels, but things began to change after 10am ET...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 12:46 PM
We haven't talked enough about ISM Manufacturing this week because Thursday's PCE data was the first report in more than 2 weeks that mattered. Thus,...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 11:09 AM
As I watch it snow here in the Sierra, hey, if you’re going to watch one video this week, watch this 15-second classic (with sound) on how our banking...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:50 PM
It Took a Village (Of Econ Data)
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied after the 8:30am econ d...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:05 PM
In the bigger picture, mortgage rates would still be best described as "trending gently higher," but in the shorter term, today was a victory. The av...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 11:33 AM
Welcome to February 29; The 366th day is added to keep the calendar year synchronized with the astronomical year or seasonal year. What do astronomers...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 10:44 AM
Today's most hotly anticipated data was undoubtedly PCE inflation for January. In fact, this is the report that became the subject of our focus and a...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 4:05 PM
Small Scale Volatility But Very Sideways Overall
There were a few instances of volatility in the bond market...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 3:50 PM
Despite the release of economic data that sounds like it should matter to markets (mainly "GDP"), the bonds that drive interest rates had a remarkably...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 12:05 PM
The bond market may be data dependent (it totally is!), but not just any data will do. You'd be forgiven for thinking that things like "GDP" and "Cor...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 11:09 AM
At the TMBA’s Secondary Conference in Houston a topic is obviously interest rates and the economy… And the fact that the nation’s interest payment exp...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 8:37 AM
The week ending February 23 produced the third consecutive period of declining mortgage activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Mark...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 4:03 PM
Weird Reaction to Durable Goods, But Generally Slow and Sideways
The economic data drought finally began to ...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 2:50 PM
One of the downsides of rates being very close to the highest levels in months is that it doesn't take much of nudge to hit new highs. That was ALMOS...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 12:28 PM
With apologies to those who follow closely enough to know how frequently this notion has been recycled recently, bonds continue grinding sideways as i...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 11:55 AM
Despite the upward path of interest rates, both the CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices and the Housing Price Index (HPI) published by the Federal Housing ...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 11:01 AM
A correction to yesterday’s Commentary regarding the next holiday (Memorial Day) being two months out. Several emailed that Memorial Day is actually t...
