Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:18 PM
Weak Data, Weak Auction, Weak Bonds
The simplest way to view today's moderate bond market weakness is as a p...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:43 AM
For the first time this week, the economic calendar is not completely empty. Granted, the S&P Global PMI data is not the heaviest of hitters, but it ...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:10 AM
As attendees head home from the MBA’s IMB in New Orleans, plenty will be eating airplane chow. Maybe you should buy vittles on the ground instead. Giv...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 8:31 AM
Mortgage application activity has increased in each of the three weeks of the New Year, even though two of those weeks were impacted by federal holida...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:49 PM
Remarkably little happened in the bond market today. That means that mortgage lenders shouldn't have any obvious motivations to make big changes to t...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:48 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
Monday saw the lowest volume and lightest volatility of the year so far, but Tuesday turne...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 11:06 AM
As the market waits for next Wednesday's Fed announcement, there are a few other central bank updates to digest. This week's examples include the Eur...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 10:48 AM
Yesterday’s Commentary had a note about Atlantic Bay’s “LinkedIn traffic picking up.” I have been assured by Atlantic Bay’s CEO that the company conti...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 5:13 PM
The bond market (which dictates interest rates) hasn't had too many Mondays so far in January due to the holiday calendar. Today's example might have...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 4:58 PM
Modest Gains. No Particular Reason
The week got off to a slow start as far as the bond market was concerned....
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 12:17 PM
While bonds are starting the domestic session in slightly stronger territory and holding sideways so far, the broader trend is still toward higher yie...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 10:49 AM
Attention in the hallways in the early going at the IMB Conference in New Orleans is varied. LinkedIn traffic seems to have picked up for IMB companie...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 4:55 PM
So far, 2024 has been distinctly different from the end of 2023. November and December saw rates move lower at one of the fastest paces in decades. In...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 4:54 PM
Negative Trend Intact For Now
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and F...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 1:33 PM
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and Friday provides the latest evidence. While we're content to view most of...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 11:02 AM
If you’re in Chicago, the newest attraction is “the rat hole.” Here in Denver, besides the cat I saw in the airport yesterday being walked on a leash,...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Simple, Logical Cause and Effect
Things have been fairly boring for the bond market recently. We're in a ho...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 3:20 PM
It's Thursday during an era of interest rate volatility. As such, there's a decent chance that we'll find a discrepancy between Freddie Mac's weekly ...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 12:39 PM
December’s housing starts failed to sustain their November growth but permit activity as well as positive news out of the National Association of Home...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 12:23 PM
It's a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. In a time when day to day movement is highly data dependent, we continue to see logical reac...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 10:21 AM
Then VP Al Gore supposedly said, "It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it." Here...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:58 PM
Rates have been gradually rising across the board in the past few weeks and mortgage rates are no exception. Yesterday, it was the market responding ...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:53 PM
Bonds Reacting to Data. Is It Justified?
Retail Sales came out at 0.6 vs a median forecast of 0.4 and rates...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 12:32 PM
This week's only major economic report arrived this morning and it wasn't good for bonds. December's retail sales came out at 0.6% versus a median fo...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 11:20 AM
Today I am in San Diego for the SD CAMP event. At the same latitude, a poll was taken by Texas Governor Greg Abbott's office which asked whether peopl...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 8:32 AM
Mortgage application activity continued its strong post-holiday performance during the week ended January 12. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:36 PM
The last few weeks have seen mortgage rates move in a far narrower range compared to the month and a half leading up to December 14th. That said, the...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:35 PM
Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher
The most hotly anticipated calendar event at the start of this ho...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 11:34 AM
While last week saw a generally narrow range, bonds managed to reverse two weeks of losses with 10yr yields moving down from 4.05 to 3.95. The gains ...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 9:50 AM
“I’m supposed to respect my elders, but now it’s getting harder and harder for me to find one.” Gradually it’s becoming harder and harder to find a ba...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's targe...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
Good Week For Bonds. Next One Could be Interesting
The bond market traded about as well as anyone could have...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 11:01 AM
I received this call yesterday from an LO friend. “Rob, I was talking to my ‘hair-apist’ last night, and I was telling her about how our industry has ...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 10:33 AM
PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level. It is not known or respected as being a reliable or significant market mover, b...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds. Bonds react more to two monthly economic reports than any others. One of these is the jobs report which came out ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:33 PM
What's Up With Wild Reaction to CPI?
For the level of anticipation heading into it, today's CPI release was ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 12:20 PM
The initial reaction to this morning's CPI data has been mixed with weakness initially and now some resilience. Treasuries are underperforming, partl...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 10:26 AM
Our Federal Reserve doesn’t control events around the world, like a ship being stuck in the Suez Canal, or the current Red Sea geopolitical aggression...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:42 PM
The first thing to understand about mortgage rates over the past 3-4 weeks is that they haven't been moving nearly as quickly as the preceding months....
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:41 PM
At Least We Won't Be Waiting For CPI Anymore
The present week has been a bit boring, for lack of a gentler t...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 12:34 PM
Last Friday's data (jobs report and ISM) marked the last significant calendar event until this week's CPI, due out tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The interve...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 10:51 AM
I’m so tired of the mainstream press talking about the 2024 election, 10 months out. Given that the median age of U.S. citizens is about 38 years, one...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 8:36 AM
Mortgage activity rose significantly during the week ended January 5, but it faced a pretty low bar. Loan application numbers were adjusted to account...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:36 PM
While the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate is still more than 1% below the long-term highs seen in October, it has been rising slowly and steadily in ...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:28 PM
Even Narrower Sideways Grind; No Reaction to Auction
Friday's trading session set a reasonably wide range re...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 11:12 AM
An uneventful overnight session has given way to roughly unchanged levels at the start of another day without CPI. The first 3 days of this week are ...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 8:37 AM
Is it just my imagination or do restaurants no longer have salt and pepper shakers on the tables after COVID? Is it just my imagination or do organiza...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:16 PM
Range Finding Ahead of Auctions and CPI
The start of the new week saw bonds start at unchanged levels, rally...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:04 PM
Last week saw several key economic events attempt to exert some influence on interest rate momentum without any obvious winner. Rates ended the week ...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 1:33 PM
Even as consumer sentiment about housing remained generally pessimistic, a change in perceptions about the future of mortgage interest rates did a lot...
