Fri, Feb 9 2024, 11:35 AM
Sometimes there is no shortcut when you want to make a lot of money. Speaking of making money, and creating wealth for clients, owning real estate con...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 3:30 PM
Bonds Increasingly Look Like They're Waiting For CPI
It wouldn't be the first time and probably won't be the...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 1:22 PM
Mortgage rates were technically a hair higher today when compared with yesterday's latest offerings, but it's just as fair to say they've been unchang...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 12:55 PM
It's an interesting little interlude in the story of the bond market as yields wait to find out what's next after (probably) confirming long-term high...
Thu, Feb 8 2024, 11:17 AM
Economists have their favorite indices to measure the health of the economy. GDP, if men are buying underwear, CPI, RV shipments, GDP, plastic surgery...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 5:09 PM
Mortgage rates are based on trading in the bond market. As we saw last week, trading in the bond market can often be very exciting, even if that exci...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 5:04 PM
Fed Speakers on Repeat as Bonds Hit Snooze
After several days of heavy volatility, the bond market is drifti...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 11:11 AM
When this commentary gig gets old, I think I’ll take up… throwing needles? But so far so good, putting this out six days a week. Yesterday I glanced a...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 9:35 AM
After rising roughly 2bps yesterday afternoon, bond yields dropped just over 2bps right at the start of the overnight session with buzz surrounding Mo...
Wed, Feb 7 2024, 8:44 AM
Mortgage application volume rose modestly during the week as mortgage rates marked time. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Comp...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:09 PM
The past two business days (Friday and Monday) accounted for the 3rd largest increase in mortgage rates since March 2020. Friday, specifically, was t...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 4:02 PM
Magical Mystery Rally
Whereas the bond market had obvious, individual motivations for all phases of the shar...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 12:59 PM
When bond yields began spiking abruptly after last Friday's jobs report, one of the immediate saving graces was the fact that the late January highs w...
Tue, Feb 6 2024, 10:45 AM
Every month we receive statistics showing how prices are going up, or down, and our Federal Reserve is continually mentioning controlling inflation wh...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:40 PM
Last Friday was the worst day for mortgage rates in over a year in terms of day-over-day movement (October 19th, 2023 remains the worst day in decades...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:23 PM
Big Losses Get Bigger After ISM Data
Bonds sold off again today, but this time in several distinct waves. T...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 10:39 AM
“If I had a dollar for every girl that found me unattractive, they would eventually find me attractive.” New York Community Bancorp, buyer of Flagstar...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 9:55 AM
The bond market continues providing a great example big movement in the "little picture." Right out of the gate, if we examine just a slightly bigger...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Was The Jobs Report Real and What Are The Lasting Implications?
Is Friday's NFP number of 353k versus a 180k...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates were crushed by today's jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls (the main component of the report), came in significantly higher than expected...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 12:43 PM
It's not really an exaggeration to say "no one saw it coming" with respect to this morning's jobs report. NFP hit 353k versus a forecast of 180k. 10...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 10:54 AM
Although he is correct less than half the time, groundhog Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow this morning, meaning an early spring is likely. At ...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:10 PM
"Long-term" is a subjective measurement, but in this case, it refers to the the past 7 or 8 months. Today's mortgage rates dropped to levels that--un...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:08 PM
Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report
At one point this morning, 10yr yields were close to b...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 12:03 PM
It is undoubtedly ironic that the Fed just removed a sentence that had been in the statement since March 2023 regarding the banking system being sound...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 11:07 AM
Ahead of Groundhog Day tomorrow, one realizes that our industry certainly has its share of unexpected ups and downs. The latest example of a “down” is...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 5:24 PM
This is a challenging day to attempt to understand the relationship between events and rate movement. At the most superficial level, rates are much l...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 5:18 PM
Lots of Volatility But Not Much to Do With The Fed
Today was indeed a Fed day and bonds definitely have a tr...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. been expanding at a solid pace. ...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 12:09 PM
In an interesting turn of events this morning, the Treasury refunding announcement has taken a back seat to econ data which has, in turn, taken a back...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 10:56 AM
I could tell that my cat Myrtle was miffed. Not only had the work on her “2024 Vision Board Statement” languished, but either there was no line-caught...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates inched gently lower yet again today. That's the 4th day in a row without moving higher, but it's just as fair to say rates have been b...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:17 PM
Nice bounce back after AM Weakness
Job openings came in higher than expected this morning and immediately pu...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 12:39 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) didn't used to matter to the bond market. That changed rather abruptly in the past 2 years as mark...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 10:57 AM
“What do hospital gowns and insurance policies have in common? You’re never covered as much as you think you are.” Although loan officers are not insu...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates are in the midst of a bit of a winning streak, but it's about as small and as neutral as winning streaks get. Today was the third day ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:37 PM
Solid Start But Data Dependent
Bonds started the day in slightly stronger territory with gains in both Asia ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 12:16 PM
Monday is the only day of the present week without any major scheduled economic data. After that, it's game on with the increasingly meaningful JOLTS...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 10:57 AM
“Sometimes it takes me all day to get nothing done.” But things are always changing. When I was a kid I “got a drink of water.” Now kids “hydrate.” Re...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 4:12 PM
Over the past 2 months, speculation ramped up quickly regarding the pace and magnitude of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Next week brings the first Fed meetin...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 3:00 PM
Uneventful Week. How About The Next One?
Sure... rates moved a bit higher this week as the bond market cont...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 12:54 PM
Pending home sales surged last month, far exceeding analysts’ expectations. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales In...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 11:34 AM
Once upon a time, the bond market looked to the PCE inflation data as the definitive measurement of the Fed's success regarding the 2% target. One ...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 10:30 AM
Life is a matter of perspective, and LOs and vendors don’t need some momentous weekly or monthly numbers to garner a piece of the $1.5-$2 trillion res...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 3:27 PM
What's Up With Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger GDP?
We're not huge fans of the GDP report as a consistent ma...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:48 PM
Who doesn’t think swearing parrots are funny? Although you wouldn’t want your parrot talking about the clap when Aunt Beatrice comes over for Sunday d...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:45 PM
The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate hit its highest level in exactly 6 weeks yesterday. Today's movement was in the opposite direction....
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:43 PM
New home sales finished 2023 on a positive note , posting seasonally adjusted numbers higher than in both November and the prior December. The U.S. Ce...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 11:26 AM
Today's slate of economic data was/is the biggest of the week, by far. Results were mixed at 8:30am with higher jobless claims and weaker durable goo...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:20 PM
Today's mortgage rate recap is remarkably similar to yesterday's. Rates rose modestly from levels that were already near recent highs, thus technical...
