Fri, May 12 2023, 3:36 PM
Bonds Bounce Data Confirms Range Resistance
Yesterday's bounce at 3.35% suggested that the bond market's wil...
Fri, May 12 2023, 10:02 AM
If I had a dollar for every time someone called me a boring nerd, I'd have a mean daily income of $5.64 with a standard deviation of $1.25. Turning “b...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates inched lower again on Thursday as economic reports came out slightly weaker and bank sector concerns remain in the spotlight. Such thi...
Thu, May 11 2023, 4:50 PM
Rally or Resistance?
The bond market rallied on Thursday with 10yr yields dropping about 5bps to just under ...
Thu, May 11 2023, 11:51 AM
The market is definitely in an on-again, off-again romance with bank drama. Today was already shaping up to be an "on-again" day before the open as P...
Thu, May 11 2023, 10:51 AM
In Boston, “wicked pissa smart” is a compliment. I’ll argue that success in lending isn’t based on trying to predict where interest rates are going, s...
Wed, May 10 2023, 5:02 PM
Today marked the release of the most recent monthly installment of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most closely followed inflation report and one ...
Wed, May 10 2023, 4:57 PM
Does Today's Data Change The Outlook?
There were a few rate friendly tidbits buried in the CPI data, but for...
Wed, May 10 2023, 12:25 PM
The long awaited CPI data is out and the results could scarcely be less eventful. Core monthly inflation (the most important number for markets today...
Wed, May 10 2023, 10:20 AM
“We are going to have a sales contest this month. The winners will get to enter next month’s contest.” Hardy har har, right? (Note: watch Glengarry Gl...
Wed, May 10 2023, 8:24 AM
The volume of mortgage applications increased last week for both home purchases and refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Marke...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates rose at their fastest pace in decades in 2022 and if only one thing could take the blame, it would be inflation. There are several way...
Tue, May 9 2023, 4:16 PM
MBS Recover Some Losses Thanks to 3yr Auction
The day began with a strong bond auction in Germany setting th...
Tue, May 9 2023, 12:53 PM
A strong bond auction in Germany set the stage for US bond yields to start the day slightly lower, but sellers have been pushing yields higher steadil...
Tue, May 9 2023, 8:50 AM
Wanna track your credit score minute by minute, regardless of whether you speak English, Spanish, whatever? I have no idea why any sane person would w...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates moved noticeably higher to start the new week--high enough that you'd have to go back to last Monday to see anything higher. That's th...
Mon, May 8 2023, 3:16 PM
Rising Rates Reiterate Relevance of The Range
Bonds were in weaker shape right from the start. Holiday clos...
Mon, May 8 2023, 12:08 PM
The bond market isn't trying on any new hats recently. Yields have been mostly deadlocked between 3.4 and 3.6%.
Econ data has been mixed. Bank...
Mon, May 8 2023, 9:28 AM
Amidst the seemingly week mass shootings and violence, individual deaths stand out. Heartfelt condolences go out to Jennifer and Dan Gilbert, of Rocke...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:39 PM
The first week of any given month tends to have the highest concentration of economic data with the power to influence the bond market, and thus inter...
Fri, May 5 2023, 4:37 PM
Logical NFP Reaction Leaves Range Intact. Bring on CPI
The jobs report has come and gone without offering an...
Fri, May 5 2023, 12:35 PM
ADP, Consumer Confidence labor differential, ISM Manufacturing. Challenger job cuts, Philly Fed, Empire State, Continuing Jobless Claims... These are...
Fri, May 5 2023, 10:46 AM
Airbnb rolled out some changes in an effort to take business away from hotels. Mexico has about 400,000 Airbnb listings, and I mention this because to...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:52 PM
There's likely no getting around that fact that mortgage rates will be moving noticeably--possibly substantially--in the coming days. This is due to ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 4:40 PM
Asymmetric Risk Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds spent time on both sides of 'unchanged' today with much of it in ...
Thu, May 4 2023, 11:39 AM
After yesterday's Fed announcement and press conference, longer-term bond yields moved quickly into a position to challenge the prevailing range floor...
Thu, May 4 2023, 9:55 AM
Inflation? Yes, inflation! Yesterday I flew from San Francisco to Cody, Wyoming for the WMLA Conference, and indulged in a breakfast at SFO of a slice...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:27 PM
The implication of "Fed rate hikes" is a constant source of confusion in the housing market. The general belief is that the Fed controls rates and if...
Wed, May 3 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Like Fed's Dovish Hike
There was really only one option for the Fed today: hike rates by 25bps but sig...
Wed, May 3 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to Economic activity expanded at a modest growth pace in spending and production. the first quarter. Job gains have p...
Wed, May 3 2023, 1:32 PM
While home prices continue to fall on an annual basis, new data from Black Knight indicates that the trend may not continue beyond the short term. The...
Wed, May 3 2023, 10:45 AM
If I tried to carry my cat Myrtle around like in this short video, there would be conflict. We all continue to hear conflicting information about home...
Wed, May 3 2023, 10:42 AM
There were two big potential market movers on the calendar today: ISM non-manufacturing and the Fed announcement. ISM data is out and it is boring (r...
Wed, May 3 2023, 9:04 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) noted a slight decrease in mortgage applications during the week ended April 28. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President...
Tue, May 2 2023, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates began the week with a moderately big jump to what were essentially the highest levels in more than a month. Less than 24 hours later a...
Tue, May 2 2023, 4:09 PM
What a Difference a Day Makes
Bonds completely erased yesterday's snowball sell-off with an even bigger snow...
Tue, May 2 2023, 10:38 AM
After a sharp sell-off to start the week, bonds are back in action this morning, enjoying the carnage and chaos in the economy every bit as much as th...
Tue, May 2 2023, 10:07 AM
If you’re really happy when a scheduled conference or Zoom call is cancelled, does that mean you’re in the wrong line of work? (Asking for a friend.) ...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:46 PM
Snowball Sell-Off to Start The Month
Sometimes headlines reference the beginning or end of any given day/wee...
Mon, May 1 2023, 4:42 PM
Whether we call it a bailout, a failure, or a fire sale, First Republic Bank was formally absorbed by JP Morgan Chase early this morning. Interest rat...
Mon, May 1 2023, 12:13 PM
The bond market is in a trifecta of trouble so far this morning. Just before the open, JPM announced that it was assuming the loans and deposits of F...
Mon, May 1 2023, 9:25 AM
Did you know that cows snooze laying down for the four hours of sleep they need a day? Did you know that horses sleep standing up? These tidbits may c...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:40 PM
Stronger Today, Sideways in General
Bonds improved overnight on a combination of friendly central bank news ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates fell nicely to start the week but only after rising rather abruptly in the previous two weeks. That said, short term ups and downs are ...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:54 AM
Bonds were ushered into the domestic session in moderately stronger territory thanks to a friendly policy announcement from the Bank of Japan and soft...
Fri, Apr 28 2023, 10:08 AM
“Rob, earlier this week you posted some ‘units funded’ information from the MBA showing a dramatic decline from a few years ago... Dollar-wise, certai...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:38 PM
Bonds Reposition For "Higher For Longer" After GDP
Today's GDP number came in lower than expected at 1.1 vs ...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 4:12 PM
Interest rates are determined by the price/yield of bonds. Bonds can take cues from several places, but inflation always matters. Inflation had been...
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 3:41 PM
Thu, Apr 27 2023, 12:30 PM
The bond market is standing in front of the whack-a-mole game with only 2 holes. On one side is the mini banking crisis. On the other side is inflat...
