Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:58 PM
Rates have calmed down after some unfortunate and unexpected volatility at the beginning of the week. The average lender is offering just slightly hi...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 2:51 PM
Small But Surprising Reaction to Data. Cruise Control Remain Intact
This morning's stronger-than-forecast GD...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 12:46 PM
It's unfortunate that we're now more than 40 years away from Alec Guinness's "these aren't the droids you're looking for" line in Star Wars. It makes...
Thu, Dec 22 2022, 9:58 AM
When I see lover’s names carved into the wood on a tree, I don’t think it’s sweet. I just think how surprising it is how many people bring a knife on ...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:36 PM
The headline could be read two ways. To be clear, the "recent rise" refers to Monday and Tuesday of this week. Before that, mortgage rates spent the...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 4:32 PM
Sideways to Slightly Weaker After Early Gains
It ended up being an uneventful day for bonds despite a handfu...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 1:08 PM
"No one" is a relative term when it comes to economic data. There are actually about 4 million people per year buying existing homes based on the ann...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds proved they were capable of rallying this week with respectable gains early this morning following two days of relatively sharp losses. Unfortun...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 11:05 AM
As Wells Fargo was smacked upside the head with a $3.7 billion fine by the CFPB, sports news included Mat Ishbia and the Phoenix Suns, and the Senate ...
Wed, Dec 21 2022, 8:33 AM
Continuing declines in interest rates contributed to a substantial increase in applications for refinancing heading into the holiday season. This push...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 4:26 PM
What a difference a few days have made for mortgage rates, and in this case, not a good difference. The average lender was offering the lowest rates ...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 4:14 PM
Housing Starts, the jargon word used to refer to the inception of new residential construction, have a fairly logical relationship with building permi...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 3:46 PM
Does Japan's New Rate Policy Change Anything For Us?
Today's dominant market mover occurred in Japan early i...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 11:30 AM
Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of Japan's central bank (BOJ), surprised the market with an earlier-than-expected shift to the BOJ's policy of yield curve c...
Tue, Dec 20 2022, 9:29 AM
Takeover and M&A rumors continue to swirl, and smarter companies are merely hiring production staff away from lenders rather than pay the baggage that...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 4:56 PM
Very Flat Day After Opening Losses
MBS and Treasuries began the day in moderately-to-sharply weaker territor...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 3:52 PM
As much as it may seem that financial markets are driven by machines and code, human beings are still critical to day to day functioning. This is esp...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 2:31 PM
The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)--typically referred to simply as "builder confidence"--is argued t...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 11:57 AM
The ratio of market movement to justification is off the charts this morning (i.e. lots of movement, but not a lot of apparent justification). This i...
Mon, Dec 19 2022, 10:37 AM
Happy Hanukkah (or Chanukah), which began yesterday. Others are looking ahead to Christmas, with some companies closed Friday the 23rd and some closed...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:13 PM
Bonds Recover Somewhat After Weaker Start
Position squaring and ongoing weakness in EU bond markets got US b...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 5:12 PM
It was a critical week for financial markets and especially for rates as investors digested the latest inflation data and the Fed's smaller rate hike....
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 11:51 AM
Around Thanksgiving and then again after the December meeting, you'll see us increasingly reference "holiday trading mode." This term is a bit of a c...
Fri, Dec 16 2022, 10:09 AM
This morning I Head East to Chicago for a handful of days. If you’ve wondered what a pilot sees when landing at O’Hare, here’s a mesmerizing video. (W...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the bond market (specifically, mortgage-backed securities or MBS). When MBS improve, lenders are creating loans...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 3:33 PM
Bonds Stay Resilient as Traders Begin Punching Out For The Holidays
After starting flat, bonds were under pr...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 12:28 PM
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and then followed European bonds into weaker territory after the European Central Bank (ECB) upped its inflation...
Thu, Dec 15 2022, 9:36 AM
Anyone who has ever gone swimming in the ocean knows that, in a violent surf, the swimmer can’t spend time and energy in the waves near the shore bein...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:48 PM
It's often said here, but bears repeating: by the time the Fed officially announces a rate hike, that rate hike is old news and of no further conseque...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:20 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Unfriendly Dots Balanced by Peaceful Powell
As expected, the market's initial focus ...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 12:17 PM
It's Fed day and a 0.50% hike is a foregone conclusion. Markets have fully priced that in and multiple Fed speeches--including Powell 2 weeks ago--ha...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 10:13 AM
Here in Southern California for the California MBA’s Legal Issues and Regulatory Compliance Conference, the topics include RESPA, marketing services a...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 9:01 AM
The mortgage market disregarded a slight increase in interest rates last week. Refinance applications posted a second weekly gain, and the Purchase M...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 4:49 PM
There aren't many scheduled economic reports that are as hotly anticipated as was today's Consumer Price Index (CPI). The market's reaction more than...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 4:28 PM
CPI Reaction Lives Up To The Hype. Fed on Deck
On most any other day, if MBS are going out the door with a 5...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 10:01 AM
You can go back and research decades of Consumer Price Index reports to compare the size of the market movement relative to the size of the beat/miss ...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 8:58 AM
The Buffalo Springfield sang, “There's something happening here… But what it is ain't exactly clear.” Those were historical times, and a reminder that...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 3:59 PM
The week began in fairly uneventful fashion for mortgage rates, at least in the bigger picture. In the smaller picture, there was a modicum of drama ...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 3:51 PM
Bonds Give up Gains After Bumpy Auctions
Amid and absence of any relevant economic data, bonds were forced t...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 12:17 PM
It's been more than a month since the last CPI report sent mortgage rates lower at the fastest single-day pace on record. Since then, apart from one ...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 10:00 AM
My cat Myrtle has toys and games, namely the end of a shoelace, a ping pong ball, and an occasional bout with the light from a laser pointer. Humans h...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 7:07 PM
Tuesday December 13th is the day many people have been waiting for ever since Thursday November 10th. What do those two days have in common? They each...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 5:15 PM
Retreat Into Recent Rate Range Continues
The opening commentary is surprisingly similar to the closing comme...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 11:29 AM
We came into Friday expecting the Producer Price Index data to carry more market movement potential than normal. Two reasons for this: A) inflation d...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 10:09 AM
Stage presence during the holidays? Here’s an example . Christmas, and 2023, is roaring our way… What are you telling your bosses? If you’re working ...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates have been remarkably well behaved since the November 10th release of the last Consumer Price Index (CPI), the monthly inflation report ...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 3:59 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Moderate Weakness
Today had the feel of a holiday trading day in the bond mar...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 12:14 PM
As we watched yesterday's rally continue to extend into the afternoon without any compelling motivation, it began to seem slightly overdone--especiall...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 9:36 AM
Yesterday I spent some time in Northern California with two groups, one of which was CAMP, and while morale is good and everyone is in the holiday spi...
