Thu, Jun 15 2023, 3:26 PM
Not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report (the one that includes a count of "nonfarm payrolls" as well as the official unemployment rate in ...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 11:08 AM
Here’s a couple informal reads on the economy. When I have a few extra ducats in my pocket, sometimes I’ll spring for the more expensive Shrimp Alfred...
Thu, Jun 15 2023, 9:55 AM
Last week's biggest bond rally occurred on Thursday, immediately following the release of the highest Jobless Claims number since late 2021. Exactly ...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:55 PM
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady today. Mortgage rates were also generally steady, but the two have little to do with on...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 4:42 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Forecasts That Are Not Really Forecasts
Four times a year, the Fed updates its SEP (...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 2:00 PM
The following is a comparison of today's Fed statement to the previous statement from May 3rd. Deletions are struck through and in red. Additions ar...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 12:44 PM
Today's Fed events are both straightforward, mostly predictable, and potentially highly consequential. The Fed's line of thinking will likely prove t...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 10:49 AM
Don’t forget to put your flag out today for Flag Day. To warehouse banks, a “red flag” is a client who loses money for months on end, or for several q...
Wed, Jun 14 2023, 9:50 AM
The volume of mortgage applications posted the first gain since May 5, aided by lower interest rates and the usual post-holiday week bounce. The Mortg...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 4:10 PM
Tuesday brought an unfriendly paradoxical reaction for rates. Don't worry. We can shift gears to words that make more sense now. Rates began the ...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 3:41 PM
Frustrating Snowball Selling Despite Decent CPI
Even though CPI came in right in line with forecasts today (...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 11:12 AM
Today brought the first of the week's two major events with core CPI coming in right in line with the 0.4% forecast. Headline inflation fell even mor...
Tue, Jun 13 2023, 10:38 AM
Sad?: “Invitations to the Unabomber's funeral were mailed out, but no one wants to open them.” Hopefully not sad: for anyone wanting to know about com...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates drifted slightly higher this morning with the average lender moving up to the highest levels in nearly 2 weeks. Top tier 30yr fixed sc...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 3:45 PM
MBS Outperform Amid Treasury Supply Pressure
Bonds made it through the overnight session without any major d...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 11:06 AM
The week's much anticipated headliners are clearly the CPI/Fed combo on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. While those events still account for a va...
Mon, Jun 12 2023, 10:09 AM
People ask why I have a problem with sensationalist headlines. Who you gonna believe, Realtor.com who tells us that foreclosures are spiking, or CoreL...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 4:20 PM
In a surprising turn of events, this week's biggest market mover for interest rates was a policy announcement by the Bank of Canada (BOC). The event w...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 3:57 PM
Canada Doesn't Really Matter. Bring on CPI and The Fed
The day began with a hunt for the mystery market move...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 10:30 AM
Imagine my surprise at finding tag (like on the playground) is an organized sport. Imagine my surprise at finding two gas stations at the same interse...
Fri, Jun 9 2023, 9:46 AM
This otherwise sleepy Friday began with the sort of clearly defined spike in volume and yield that often accompanies big ticket economic data. With t...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:19 PM
Economic data is one of the most basic and reliable inputs for the bond market. The bond market, in turn, dictates day to day interest rate movement....
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 4:17 PM
Claims Data Completely Erases At Least One Day of Higher Rate Expectations
There have been been several days...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 12:04 PM
If you like low rates, you are often unfortunately rooting for negative economic data. You're not a bad person. Bonds are simply a hedge against eco...
Thu, Jun 8 2023, 11:09 AM
There’s a lot going on, and not only jawboning about a potential Fed rate increase next week. We have the smoke drifting down from Canada and slowing ...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates continue to operate in a fairly narrow range but we've been mostly moving in one direction inside that range so far this month. Late l...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 3:48 PM
BOC Warns US Rate Market Against Complacency
US rate traders are pretty sure they have the Fed figured out a...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 1:15 PM
Yesterday, it was the Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) with it's first rate hike after "skipping" a few meetings. Today it was the Bank of Canada (BOC)....
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 10:50 AM
Mortgage news temporarily aside, how about the government contemplating a law that would require cars to have AM radio?! AM radio goes farther than FM...
Wed, Jun 7 2023, 10:07 AM
The four-day business week accompanying the Memorial Day Holiday contributed to a further slowdown in mortgage applications. The Mortgage Bankers Asso...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:42 PM
By Friday, there's a distinct possibility that you'll be tired of hearing different versions of the same story. The plot: last Friday's jobs report p...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Nothing to See Here
It would be hard to make a case for any other day in the past month being more boring th...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 10:45 AM
Well, what should we start with today? How about how California and Texas ranked highest on the United States Postal Service’s annual list of states w...
Tue, Jun 6 2023, 10:37 AM
With the week's only top tier economic release hitting on Monday morning, the path of least resistance for the rest of the week is a choppy, sideways ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates held fairly steady over the weekend. That wasn't necessarily destined to be the case as the underlying bond market suggested another m...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 4:43 PM
Weaker Data Helps Bonds Hold Ground
Bonds remained in selling mode after Friday's jobs report. 10yr yields ...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 12:29 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but quickly found their footing after softer PMI data. In particular, ISM Services (50.3 vs 52.2) helped 10yr...
Mon, Jun 5 2023, 10:42 AM
It isn’t as if building or lending products, or ways of doing business, were handed down by Trappist monks. Change is always afoot, for better or wors...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 6:40 PM
After dominating the news cycle for weeks, the debt ceiling issue is suddenly resolved and the bond market doesn't seem to care. The jobs report prove...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 4:13 PM
What Debt Ceiling? Yields Follow NFP Higher
After being utterly bombarded for weeks, newswire feeds at tradi...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 2:00 PM
Nonfarm payrolls were up 339k, well above the 190k forecast. At the same time, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, well above the 3.5% forecast. Ho...
Fri, Jun 2 2023, 9:53 AM
While lenders are grappling with steadily increasing Agency repurchase requests, it’s National Donut Day! Someone had better offer those folks at Stat...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Data-Driven Rally, But There's Bigger Data Ahead
Yesterday's economic data made for a bit of back and forth ...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 1:13 PM
Bonds had been hoping for econ data to reinforce a ceiling after a recent run to the highest yields in months and the past few days have delivered. T...
Thu, Jun 1 2023, 9:54 AM
The United States has about 336 million people. Did you know that 1/3 of them live within a 500-mile radius of Nashville? This is a cool site for anyo...
Wed, May 31 2023, 4:43 PM
After hitting the highest levels in several months last Friday, mortgage rates have fallen fairly quickly in the new week. As bond markets improved t...
Wed, May 31 2023, 3:58 PM
Domestic Events Mostly Overshadowed by European Influence
While we can trace some of this morning's back and...
Wed, May 31 2023, 1:26 PM
The big news so far this week is the absence of any concrete conclusion to the debt ceiling debate (delivered in box labelled "debt ceiling debate sol...
Wed, May 31 2023, 9:09 AM
A biologist, a chemist, and a statistician are out hunting. The biologist shoots at a deer and misses five feet to the left. The chemist takes a shot ...
Wed, May 31 2023, 8:33 AM
Rising rates and sparse inventories continue to hamper the mortgage market. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a...
