Fri, Jan 27 2023, 12:06 PM
The two reports most capable of surprising the market this week were Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE. While it's always good to maintain some respect...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 10:01 AM
Every lender or investor with an “a” in their name seems to be subject to rumors and news in recent months. (More on Flagstar and American Pacific bel...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 4:28 PM
No Major Reaction to Data Means More Focus on Next Week
Thursday morning's economic data provided one of onl...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 3:33 PM
Scheduled economic reports are one of the first places the market looks to get a read on interest rate momentum. Of all the days this week, Thursday ...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 2:50 PM
The Census Bureau's regularly scheduled monthly report on New Home Sales was released this morning. The annual pace of 616k was right in line with th...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 10:53 AM
Thursday's opening commentary could very well end up being the closing commentary. We came into the day entertaining the possibility that economic da...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 9:26 AM
The most dangerous statement in the English language is, “But we’ve always done it this way.” Referral business has always been a mainstay in our biz,...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily determined by the bond market, and it's been an uneventful week for bonds! That means we haven't seen much of a change i...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 3:55 PM
Uneventful Week Continues
Next time bond traders have a hard time getting to sleep, they could just read a r...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 11:52 AM
If you'd like to skip right to the end, the week is shaping up to be every bit as inconsequential as anticipated with bonds holding in a fairly narrow...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 9:00 AM
There are a lot of topics being covered here at the MBA’s IMB conference. One of them is hedging, and if you want a primer on how lenders are protecti...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 8:10 AM
Mortgage loan activity posted a third straight gain during the week ended January 20 . The Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) said its Market Composi...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 4:31 PM
Mortgage rates began the day at higher levels than yesterday for the average lender, but the movement was fairly small. Most lenders were still able ...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 3:53 PM
Small Scale Volatility Against Bigger-Picture Holding Pattern
Bonds took several opportunities to react to e...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 11:03 AM
After having a case of the Mondays yesterday (unclear motivations and range-bound weakness amid low volume and light liquidity) bonds are back in the ...
Tue, Jan 24 2023, 9:54 AM
Conference attendance in 2023 may be down, given layoffs and budget cuts, but here’s a handy dandy list of events this year and state organizations. (...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 4:15 PM
After hitting the lowest levels in 4 months at times over the past week, rates have drifted up a bit. There hasn't been much rhyme or reason behind t...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 4:07 PM
Bonds Have a Case of The Mondays
Unlike the past 3 Mondays, which have seen fairly healthy participation and...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 11:34 AM
Reduced to the most simplistic of considerations, bond market price movement is all about supply and demand. The same is true of just about anything ...
Mon, Jan 23 2023, 9:53 AM
Do you know what “splooting” is? Here’s a hint: 4-legged animals do it. (Hey, I don’t make these things up.) Quite the word. Words are very interestin...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 5:03 PM
Bonds Retreat a Bit. No Compelling Reasons or Implications
Bonds rallied to the best levels in months ear...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 1:01 PM
Since coming off the highest rates in more than a decade in November, bonds ran into resistance just before the end of the year. That resistance coin...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 12:20 PM
Existing home sales fell back for the 11th straight month in December according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) The month’s sales of ...
Fri, Jan 20 2023, 10:17 AM
What would this opening paragraph be without some fun, non-mortgage stuff? Watch a rare livestream of bald eagles nesting on eggs in California. 32 tr...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 4:04 PM
If you cross paths with the average mortgage rate article (or tweet/post/etc) today, chances are you'll see some mention of "rates moving lower." Tha...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 3:51 PM
Here's What's Up With These Big Swings in MBS Prices
Thursday ended up being a boring, uneventful trading da...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 1:21 PM
In a single moment, the fees for a vast majority of new mortgages in the US have changed. In some cases, the changes are drastic, both for better and...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 11:41 AM
So much illiquidity this week... But what does that really mean? Let's break it down...
There are buyers and sellers in the MBS market submitting "...
Thu, Jan 19 2023, 9:37 AM
“Wet” January is going well for me. Wait… did I get that wrong? If food news is more to your liking, Krispy Kreme has rolled out donuts covered in Bis...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates moved down at a fairly quick pace today following a slew of rate-friendly headlines. Technically, the headlines were good for the bond...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 4:20 PM
Big Rally Challenges Range Floor. What Next?
Bonds started strong in the overnight session thanks to an unch...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 4:16 PM
A friend out in California asked me how much, on average, I spend on a bottle of wine. I replied, “About half an hour.” Plenty of wine is being consum...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 11:55 AM
There was a fair amount of anticipation over the most recent policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) which came out early in the overnight se...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 11:02 AM
On top of the solid report on mortgage volume earlier today, comes another hopeful report from the construction industry. The National Association of ...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 9:49 AM
A friend out in California asked me how much, on average, I spend on a bottle of wine. I replied, “About half an hour.” Plenty of wine is being consum...
Wed, Jan 18 2023, 9:41 AM
loan application volume, increased 27.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis The Refinance Index rose 34 percent week-over-week but remains 81 p...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 3:59 PM
Limited Market Motivations as Traders Wait to Fill in Blanks
There was a palpable absence of relevant source...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 3:39 PM
The holiday-shortened week sees mortgage rates starting out slightly higher when compared to the end of last week. Versus any other day in the past 4...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 12:15 PM
By the middle of December, bond yields made a convincing move down from decades-long highs and settled in a sideways range on CPI/Fed week. We re-ent...
Tue, Jan 17 2023, 9:19 AM
Carol K. writes, “Back in my day there was so much cheap toilet paper and eggs that we would throw them at the houses of our enemies.” And then there’...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest levels in 4 months after this week's inflation data. Despite the recent progress, Fed officials continue to...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 3:30 PM
Incidental Weakness Today, But Let's Focus on The Bigger Picture
Bonds tried to stage a mid-day rally, but e...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 12:26 PM
Recently, the bond market's job description seems to be almost entirely focused on reacting to CPI and then waiting for the next one. Perhaps we can ...
Fri, Jan 13 2023, 9:15 AM
“When cannibals ate a missionary, they got a taste of religion.” In late 2022 vendors and lenders had a taste of the first part of 2023, and it isn’t ...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:46 PM
Today brought the scheduled monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Of all the monthly economic reports, this one has had the biggest impa...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 4:15 PM
Bonds Finally Decide They Liked Today's Inflation Numbers
You won't see too many days with a 10+ bp rally in...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 10:30 AM
CPI came out very much in line with forecasts. We'd discussed the possibility of threading the needle in terms of financial markets not moving much i...
Thu, Jan 12 2023, 9:09 AM
“Thirty years ago, we had Bob Hope, Johnny Cash, and Steve Jobs. Today we have no hope, no cash, and no jobs. We are all praying nothing happens to Ke...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on the prices and yields of bonds. Bonds take cues from several places, but always from inflation and the economy-...
Wed, Jan 11 2023, 3:19 PM
Consolidation Takes Friendly Turn Ahead of CPI
Our focus this week has been on the notion of consolidation a...
