Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:59 PM
Modest Losses But Uneventful in The Bigger Picture
'Tis the season for the bond market to enter holiday trad...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:37 PM
There's no question that last week was an exciting one for rates. On Wednesday, the average 30yr fixed was fairly close to the highest levels since 20...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 11:58 AM
The state of the housing market in 2022 is well known by now. The sharpest rate spike in 40 years to the highest rates in 20 years combined with the ...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 11:37 AM
One unfortunate side effect of the general hyperfocus on inflation as the biggest issue facing markets is that bonds have been able to bounce from one...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 9:52 AM
Few base their company or family’s savings on the inherent risk in a prediction. But… On a big scale, and we’ve been hearing forecasts of a recession ...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 5:18 PM
If you'd like to get the quick scoop and be on your way, here you go: the big move in rates happened last Thursday when the average 30yr fixed dropped...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 4:10 PM
Weaker Today, But Still in Solid Territory Despite Fed Push-Back
Bonds lost a bit of ground overnight and th...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 3:47 PM
There aren't many ways to make the Census Bureau's New Residential Construction report exciting, and there are zero ways to frame it in a positive lig...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 10:15 AM
After spending the first 3 days of the week attempting to moderately extend the gains, bonds are finding some resistance today. Comments from St. Lou...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 9:47 AM
The release yesterday of FHFA’s report on Agency Guarantee Fees prompted some of the discussion here in Kansas City among mortgage folks about how cha...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 3:43 PM
Decent Rally Despite Strong Retail Sales and Hawkish Fed Speakers
It was an interesting day for the bond mar...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 3:09 PM
The mortgage landscape is very interesting at the moment. On any given day, some lenders are moving higher, others are moving lower, and the rest are...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 12:28 PM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell another 5 points in November. NAHB said this measure of b...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 11:43 AM
The day is getting off to an interesting start as stronger Retail Sales data initially pushed yields higher. That weakness lasted for less than half ...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 9:52 AM
This morning I head to Kansas City to spend some time with the MBAKC. KC is a mere 500 miles from Oak Park, Illinois, east of Chicago and childhood ho...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 9:12 AM
Mortgage application volume increased on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended November 11 but declined sharply before adjustment. The Mor...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:57 PM
1 Step Back and 1 Step Forward So Far This Week
Bonds made solid gains overnight, largely following a rally ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:31 PM
Let's talk about the current state of mortgage rates. Before we do, some housekeeping: the following pertains to averages across multiple lenders. T...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:22 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) collects data on borrower eligibility (FICO, loan type, LTV, etc) and combines that with underwriting guideline...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 11:06 AM
Today kicks off with the Producer Price Index painting a similar picture to last week's CPI data. Specifically, monthly wholesale inflation dropped 0...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 10:29 AM
The other day I walked in on Myrtle who was looking at the litter cleaning robot on the screen as if to ask, “What’ll they think of next?” Businesses ...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:56 PM
If you're just getting caught up, last Thursday was one for the record books--at least when it comes to the daily records that exist going back to 200...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:14 PM
The Best Half Point MBS Sell-Off
On probably any other day, a half point sell-off in MBS would be bad new...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 12:02 PM
In case you missed Thursday's trading session last week, it was epic--one of the biggest single-day rallies on record and the biggest drop in mortgage...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 9:31 AM
For some reason, companies laying off large numbers of people (most recently Better, Freedom, Mr. Cooper) make headlines, whereas shouldn’t the unusua...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:19 PM
Biggest Rally in Over a Decade After CPI Overdelivers
You may have been tired of hearing just how important ...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:11 PM
Heading into this week, we knew that Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be critically important. It did not disappoint. CPI is one of two ke...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 10:58 AM
This morning's trading action offers resounding validation of the market's hyperfocus on this particular CPI report. In a month where the average pri...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 9:14 AM
Okay, tomorrow is a holiday for many, but let’s not forget those veterans during the rest of the year. (Warning: tissues required.) Switching gears 18...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates experienced one of their calmest days of the past few weeks with the average lender roughly unchanged from yesterday. Rates are based ...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 11:41 AM
Heading into the week, the absence of tradable data on 3 out of the 4 days was readily apparent. Bonds were left at the mercy of tradeflows (all the ...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 10:11 AM
As Brian B. reminds me, “In the New England you can tell the changing of the seasons by the changing color of the leaves. In Florida you can tell the ...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 8:49 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports yet another decline in overall mortgage application volume during the week ending November 4. Applicati...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:37 PM
We're in the middle of a 4 day week culminating in one of the most important events of the year for interest rates. Thursday morning brings the relea...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:19 PM
Super Sideways After Solid Gains, But Nothing Matters Until Thursday
Today's news cycle was dominated by pol...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 12:10 PM
To be sure, the bond market absolutely CAN experience significant volatility in response to election outcomes, but the extent of that volatility depen...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 9:01 AM
This morning I head from Chicago to Atlanta, with a corresponding change in temperatures (20 degrees) and snow readiness (even the Chicago garbage tru...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates are directly linked to trading levels in the bond market. When bonds have a bad day, rates tend to rise. While that was true for the ...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:52 PM
Roughly 2 weeks ago, home price indices (HPIs) from Case Shiller and the FHFA came out for the month of August. Both were in agreement that prices de...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance
As Thursday's CPI looms on the horizon as this week's defini...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 11:47 AM
With essentially nothing on the economic calendar on Monday, the most notable headline for the bond market has been the announcement of at least 13 ne...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 9:35 AM
Do whatever you want to your clock, it doesn’t change the feeding time of your pets! Friday’s a holiday… Want to help out your vet (veteran, not veter...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 4:13 PM
Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75
After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 11:28 AM
This morning's centerpiece was the nonfarm payrolls number coming in at 260 versus a median forecast of 200k. Additionally, the previous month was re...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 10:04 AM
I was walking down North Wabash in Chicago yesterday and a beggar (is that politically correct?) yelled out at me, “You’re the reason this country has...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 4:30 PM
Post Fed Weakness Keeping Markets on Edge
Wednesday's Fed reaction reverberated through overseas markets ove...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 3:49 PM
If you missed yesterday's explanation of the Fed's impact on mortgage rates, it's worth a read (assuming you'd like to understand the Fed's impact on ...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 12:33 PM
Powell did as was expected yesterday by acknowledging an eventual conversation about slowing the pace of rate hikes while at the same time reminding m...
Thu, Nov 3 2022, 9:10 AM
Here at the Wisconsin MBA conference in The Dells, a portion of the talk is about buydowns and adjustable-rate programs. Certainly, they are legitimat...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 6:43 PM
The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 0.75% today and 30yr fixed mortgage rates moved moderately higher. Interestingly enough, those two things are fair...
