Wed, Nov 2 2022, 5:34 PM
Powell Sticks To Same Script (The One That Bonds Don't Really Like)
Today's much-anticipated Fed announcemen...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 11:57 AM
The Fed has 8 scheduled meetings per year. 4 of them include a dot plot with each member's rate hike outlook. Those announcement days tend to produc...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 9:15 AM
“Why did New Jersey get all the toxic waste and California get all the lawyers? New Jersey got to pick first.” (Hey, I don’t write ‘em.) Quips aside, ...
Wed, Nov 2 2022, 8:42 AM
A bit of easing in mortgage rates prompted a tiny uptick in refinancing during the week ended October 28, but overall mortgage application volume con...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today after spending the past two trading days moving higher. The average lender remains in the low 7% range for ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 4:52 PM
Both Sides of The Market Eagerly Trading Fed Cues
Stocks and bonds both began the day in stronger territory ...
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 12:43 PM
November kicked off with a strong showing from buyers after October's month-end session saw a fair amount of selling. But the gains didn't last long....
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 12:39 PM
Annual home price growth remained in double digits in September even as home sales and purchase mortgage volume continued their months’ long declines....
Tue, Nov 1 2022, 9:20 AM
Forget about layoffs, salary cuts, revenue problems. There’s extra leftover candy in the lunchroom! Uh… do we still have lunchrooms? I hope so. And Th...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates are fresh off their best week since at least July and their best winning streak (in terms of consecutive days moving lower) in well ove...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 4:29 PM
Late Day Volatility Surrounding Month-End and Corporate Issuance
The day got off to a slow start with bonds ...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 11:24 AM
Bonds are contending with a modest amount of weakness overnight, but not enough to derail our conclusion that bonds have leveled off after an overdone...
Mon, Oct 31 2022, 9:49 AM
For me, the next ten days includes time in Chicago, the Wisconsin Dells, and Atlanta. It isn’t a scary agenda. At the ready for tonight’s Halloween fu...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 4:10 PM
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Heading into the current week, it wasn't...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 11:37 AM
Inflation and the resulting increase in interest rates continued to dent home sales activity into the fall. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 10:03 AM
Throughout the week, we've been of the mind that last week's losses were overdone and this week's gains represented a correction to that unjustified w...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 9:50 AM
I could tell that my cat Myrtle was incensed. I think that it may have had something to do with an email regarding artic krill oil, and her clicking o...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 5:00 PM
As of yesterday, mortgage rates were already on their best winning streak since late July in terms of consecutive days spent moving lower. With today...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 3:34 PM
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Bonds may have moved into stronger territory tod...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 11:37 AM
Today began with bonds in moderately weaker territory after token defensive positioning following a solid rally and ahead of the week's more consequen...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 9:40 AM
The financial press seems enthralled with the business cycle. Expansion, contraction, rates and stocks up, rates and stocks down. Right now they’re al...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower for an impressive 4th straight day. That hasn't happened since late July, but there are a few caveats. First off, while t...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:06 PM
Another Solid Day; Detailed Discussion on 5.0 Coupons vs 7% Rates
Bonds are trading better than they have at...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 12:31 PM
A bit of housekeeping before we get to the UMBS question...
Bonds have have been rallying very well since yesterday morning. At the same time, the ...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 9:57 AM
As the MBA’s conference in Nashville wraps up, lenders and vendors are in an interesting mindset. Optimists are saying, “There’s a lot of opportunity ...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 9:41 AM
There was a slight increase in refinancing during the week ended October 21, but overall mortgage applications fell for the fifth straight week. The M...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 5:18 PM
Yesterday, we noted that the 2nd consecutive day of improvement for mortgage rates was a rare accomplishment in the context of the past few months. N...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 4:34 PM
Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed?
Bonds rallied overnight of their own volition and in conce...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 3:36 PM
Home prices fell sharply again in August according to the two leading home price indices, both released this morning. The Federal Housing Finance Age...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 12:13 PM
Bonds rallied at a solid pace overnight with gains in both Asian and European sessions. More impressive, however, have been the domestic session gain...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 9:24 AM
In the press, here’s some information on the hit the Fed’s balance sheet has taken give the bond market selloff. And here at the MBA’s annual, some of...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 5:15 PM
Now here's a rare thing! Mortgage rates managed to move lower, on average, for the 2nd consecutive business day on Monday. That hasn't happened for r...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 4:50 PM
US Bonds Try (And Fail) To Follow The EU Rally
The average day over the past few weeks/months has seen a hig...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 12:00 PM
The end of last week was a wild little emotional roller coaster for the bond market. Thursday brought a sharp sell-off that spilled into the overnigh...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 9:52 AM
There’s a lot of good-natured competition here in Nashville. Around the world, there’s a competition for everything. Eat the most hot dogs, win the Wo...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 8:18 PM
There's no way to sugarcoat the situation in the bond market and, by extension, the mortgage and housing markets. Rates have risen at a nearly unprece...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 4:47 PM
Crazy, Scary Morning Gives Way to Moderate Gains
The bond market gamed the Fed today, and won (i.e. the long...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 12:34 PM
The bond market began the day by doing its best impression of lover scorned, threatening self harm unless it gets some sort of validation from its for...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 9:47 AM
Denver’s airport has the longest runway in the U.S. at 16,000 feet (3 miles). As thousands of vendors, with some lenders thrown in for good measure, a...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 5:27 PM
Important Day For Bonds and an Important Conversation About MBS Coupons
The important conversation about MBS...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 4:42 PM
Let's talk about exactly what it means to see a mortgage rate headline in the news, or even from some seemingly official index or survey. In fact, l...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 4:08 PM
If anything, today's Existing Home Sales data is a bit of a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy housing market. Sure, the annual pace of sales is as l...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 11:59 AM
Everyone is tired of the persistent sell-off in the bond market, but weariness is no match for the negative momentum. We've long since run out of ways...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 9:08 AM
While we had news today of the British Prime Minister resigning, yesterday my doctor asked if anyone in my family suffers from mental illness. I repli...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 5:10 PM
There's no sense in beating a dead horse or wading through another "same story, different day" assessment of rates. They were already at 20 year highs...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 4:59 PM
Another Move to Long Term Lows 'Just Because'
Today began with more upward pressure on yields, apparently du...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 1:49 PM
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported a small improvement in the number of permits issued in September a...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 11:08 AM
Today begins with bond yields at new 14 year highs with the ostensible culprit being the inflation reading in the UK overnight. While there's no ques...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 9:24 AM
Here in Orange County, the mortgage talk runs the gamut. Sure, a recession would cause rates to drop, but before that happens, are residential lenders...
