Thu, Jul 14 2022, 3:21 PM
The biggest issue with the two most widely followed home price indices (FHFA and Case Shiller) is that the underlying data is almost 2 months old by t...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 12:27 PM
In the bigger picture, longer-term yields are trading a narrow, sideways range this week with today's yields well inside yesterday's range and yesterd...
Thu, Jul 14 2022, 10:27 AM
Real estate agents love it when loan officers give them referrals. That’s not always easy. Is giving a real estate agent a book on becoming a producti...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 3:40 PM
Ask anyone who knows a thing or two about how interest rates work and they'll tell you: inflation is the enemy! What caused the record high rates b...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 3:25 PM
Did Rates Just Realize They're Invincible?
Want to see an interest rate that isn't worried about going much ...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 11:59 AM
We knew CPI was the biggest potential market mover this week and it hasn't disappointed in that regard. It has also provided bonus entertainment in t...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 11:34 AM
Sue W. writes, “After I say, ‘That’s crazy’ twice, please wrap up your story.” There are a lot of stories out there now as residential lenders tighten...
Wed, Jul 13 2022, 11:25 AM
Mortgage application activity declined last week, again due, partially at least, to a holiday shortened business week. The Mortgage Bankers Associatio...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 4:00 PM
Bonds Retreat After Auction. Here Comes CPI
Bonds began the day in a surprisingly strong stance and it didn'...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 2:43 PM
The first two days of the week have been fairly boring for mortgage rates relative to recent volatility. There's been a bit of friendly movement on b...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 10:39 AM
I mentioned yesterday that 4 out of 3 people have trouble with math, but it doesn’t take a genius to do subtraction. 6 - .2 = 5.8, right? Wouldn’t you...
Tue, Jul 12 2022, 10:30 AM
Bonds are starting the day in much stronger territory, and this raises a few interesting points and questions. First off, it's interesting to see a 2...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 5:25 PM
Mortgage rates moved sharply higher last week relative to where they ended the previous week. In the 3 weeks before that, rates fell at one of the fa...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Open to Suggestion Ahead of Inflation Data
After selling off fairly swiftly for most of last week, bon...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 12:27 PM
Heading into the new week early this morning, Treasuries refused to move any higher than Friday's highs and ultimately moved lower as they followed an...
Mon, Jul 11 2022, 11:13 AM
Did you know that 4 out of 3 people have trouble with math? I do too, as suggested by my capital markets background, but I know enough to understand t...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 5:01 PM
Rates Defeated by Data. Another Big Fight Next Week
This week's recap is fairly straightforward. Rates were...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 4:43 PM
Most of the following is an updated version of the same coverage from yesterday. Little changed today apart from the big jobs report pushing rates hi...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 12:54 PM
This morning's nonfarm payroll count came in at 372k versus a 268k consensus. Unemployment and wages held steady (with a small +0.1% revision to last...
Fri, Jul 8 2022, 11:08 AM
Dang, is there any good news out there? Japanese ex-Prime Minister Abe was tragically assassinated. Rates stink, especially compare to 2020 and 2021, ...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 4:35 PM
Bond Bounce Continues Ahead of Jobs Report and Next Week's CPI
Apart from a brief breakout in mid-June, rate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 3:46 PM
Without a shadow of a doubt, mortgage rates are noticeably higher today than they were yesterday. They were also noticeably higher yesterday compared...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 11:18 AM
Momentum indicators are staples of technical analysis for a reason. While the exact timing and magnitude of market movement will always defy accurate...
Thu, Jul 7 2022, 10:42 AM
Many youngsters don’t know the “Shave and a haircut? Two bits!” knock, or musical notes. Some things are timeless, like British Prime Ministers coming...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving lower for the past 3 weeks after hitting the highest levels since 2008 in the middle of June. This was a larger-scale...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 4:31 PM
Sharp Losses Offer a Reminder About The Range
We first began to discuss the prevailing rate narrative on May...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 11:52 AM
The two-year explosion in home prices appears to be cooling a bit. Black Knight says annual appreciation was down in May for the second straight month...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:55 AM
“I'm a multitasker. I can listen, ignore, and forget all at the same time!” We won’t, however, soon forget this part of the business cycle. “Rob, than...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:48 AM
Mortgage application activities declined during the week ended July 1 after three straight weeks of improvement. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA...
Wed, Jul 6 2022, 10:41 AM
The 2nd half of the last 2 months has been good for the bond market, as long as you're willing to overlook the fact that both multi-week rallies requi...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates hit 5.5% last Friday for the top tier conforming 30yr fixed scenario at the average lender. That was the lowest since June 8th, just...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 3:36 PM
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance
Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading ...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 11:34 AM
“What do you get when you cross the Atlantic Ocean with the Titanic? Halfway.” We’ve crossed the halfway point of 2022, and where’s everyone’s attenti...
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM
Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns... that is the headline at the moment--not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates have been volatile in 2022. Most of that volatility has played out in the form of higher rates. The past 2 weeks have been a notable ex...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM
Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings
Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM
Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi...
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 9:58 AM
This morning, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2022, I learned about this morsel: The most common national holiday around the world is indepen...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:45 PM
Inflation is the enemy of low interest rates. As such, the mortgage market was waiting patiently for this week's key inflation report released this m...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:33 PM
Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data
This week's data focus was all about today...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 11:54 AM
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June). So far this morni...
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 10:49 AM
“Looking out at the road rushing under my wheels… Looking back at the years gone by like so many summer fields.” Yes, at the end of today we’re halfwa...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds have been under tremendous pressure due to inflation. As such, when a major inflation report c...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 4:41 PM
Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations
US bonds found several sources of inspirati...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 12:13 PM
Sometimes bonds head into a trading day knowing that some key event(s) will hold the potential to push rates decisively higher or lower depending on t...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 10:41 AM
The volume of mortgage applications rose fractionally last week as rates edged down and applications for refinancing staged a small comeback. The Mort...
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 10:39 AM
We’re all trying to save a few pennies. We have the increase in postal rates coming soon and perhaps pick up a roll, or ten, of Forever Stamps. It’s n...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 5:02 PM
After moving up sharply on Friday, mortgage rates weren't significantly higher yesterday. That represented a bit of a disconnect with underlying bond...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:50 PM
Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but qui...
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:26 PM
It's one of the perennial "yeah buts" of the two largest and most widely-cited home price indices: there data is always about 2 months old by the time...
