Wed, Aug 31 2022, 10:11 AM
The volume of mortgage applications fell again last week, dragged lower by refinancing which had its largest week-over-week decline since mid-May. The...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, and bond traders have a lot on their minds these days. After trading rates up to the highest levels in ...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 4:30 PM
Sideways Afternoon After Volatile Morning
"Hypervigilant volatility." Get used to seeing that new phrase as...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 2:30 PM
Today brings the release of June's home price indices from both the FHFA (the regulator that oversees Fannie and Freddie, the entities that guarantee ...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 10:57 AM
Hypervigilant volatility in response to data and policy comments is the order of the day/week/month as traders assume central bankers are more impress...
Tue, Aug 30 2022, 9:54 AM
Nature “always bats last.” Terrible flooding in Pakistan, flooding in Mississippi impacting its drinking water supplies. Severe temperatures in China,...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates managed to breathe a decent sigh of relief last Friday as the bond market remained fairly calm despite stock market weakness following ...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 4:12 PM
Jackson Hole Follow-Through or Something Else?
Last Friday's Jackson Hole speech was the subject of a fair a...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 12:52 PM
While there certainly wasn't anything surprising in last Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, much of the market seems to have been sur...
Mon, Aug 29 2022, 10:43 AM
Remember a few years ago when lender’s IT departments were thinking that blockchain was the answer to… whatever problem they thought it would answer? ...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 5:04 PM
How Did Powell Bring The Pain With As-Expected Remarks?
This morning, we said the bond market appropriately ...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 4:34 PM
While it was never likely to contain too many surprises, this week's much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell served as an important...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 11:04 AM
Powell's Jackson Hole speech may as well have been written in advance by anyone who's done a remotely good job of paying attention to recent Fed comme...
Fri, Aug 26 2022, 10:03 AM
Abraham Lincoln famously stated, “Don’t believe everything you read on the internet.” There are always rumors out there. The latest to cross my desk, ...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 4:37 PM
It Doesn't Matter if Powell's Speech Matters
Some things will be yearned for, anticipated, and sought after ...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 4:08 PM
Tomorrow morning brings a much anticipated appearance from Fed Chair Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. As is often the case leading up to ...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 11:46 AM
Bonds were already trading fairly sideways in the overnight session and only experienced modest volatility after this morning's economic data. Unless...
Thu, Aug 25 2022, 10:14 AM
Nothing is simple or easy in this world. Take pine nuts. Simple, easy, right? Nope. A staple of pesto, and some salads and desserts, those in the Unit...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 5:11 PM
Right off the bat, it's worth mentioning that many mortgage quotes are already over 6% for a variety of reasons. But when it comes to the "going rate...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 4:24 PM
More Weakness. Is This All About The Fed?
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger shape but began to sell ...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 11:20 AM
In last Thursday's Existing Home Sales press release, the NAR's chief economist said "we're witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home ...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 10:46 AM
The unfriendly trend remains firmly intact this morning with 10yr yields up several more bps and MBS down another quarter point despite mixed economic...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Lenders continue to adapt, and LOs are adding value by being subject matter experts and marketing accordingly. (For example, today’s podcast features ...
Wed, Aug 24 2022, 10:27 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association, (MBA) says its Weekly Mortgage Application Survey for the week ended August 19 shows the volume of mortgage applicat...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 4:29 PM
Fun While it Lasted: Bonds Give Up Data-Inspired Gains
Bonds started out weaker early this morning but were ...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 3:32 PM
Today's mortgage rates are roughly in line with yesterday's for the average lender. Some are in better shape while others are slightly worse off depe...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 12:29 PM
The headline conveys the thesis quite well when it comes to the New Residential Sales data just released by the Census Bureau. July's total fell to a ...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 11:34 AM
Be still, our beating hearts! This morning's economic data came out weaker and bonds instantly engaged in a logical and sensibly-sized rally. Tradin...
Tue, Aug 23 2022, 10:33 AM
Mortgage rates dropped after mid-June. Momentarily switching gears, given their role in cakes, breakfasts, custards, and breads, if eggs didn’t exist,...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 4:30 PM
Unfriendly Trend as Fed Fear Sets In
Without any obvious, individual motivations in the news or on the econ ...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 4:01 PM
At the end of July, the prevailing concern in the mortgage industry was that rates were falling at an unhealthy pace. The good news is that as we app...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 12:07 PM
Bonds don't have too much so stress about this week in terms of calendar events. The notable exception is Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech on F...
Mon, Aug 22 2022, 10:35 AM
John Kenneth Galbraith said, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” How about forecasts of how dramatic th...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 5:15 PM
Bonds Tank After EU Inflation Data
For those who caught this morning's commentary on European inflation data...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 4:45 PM
The average mortgage rate headline among major news networks suggests things improved this week. The average headline is wrong . Don't blame the new...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 12:55 PM
Yesterday ended with yields grinding into an ever narrower consolidation pattern with 2.91% serving as the ceiling in the 10yr. That's exactly where ...
Fri, Aug 19 2022, 10:37 AM
“The officer said, ‘You drinking?’ I said, ‘You buying?’ We just laughed and laughed.... It’s Friday morning and I need bail money.” No one ever struc...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 4:36 PM
It was a very boring day for mortgage rates. There was no meaningful change versus yesterday's latest levels and there were almost no instances of mi...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 4:02 PM
Consolidation Continues as Yields Avoid Both Floors and Ceilings
Whereas 10yr yields were willing to tempora...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 3:16 PM
Homes are still selling in record time, but affordability and low inventories are driving sales lower. The National Association of Realtor® (NAR) says...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 11:53 AM
The 2.91% technical level in 10yr yields held firm as a ceiling overnight and domestic traders began pushing a lower-yield agenda in the 7am hour. At...
Thu, Aug 18 2022, 10:45 AM
Today is World Breast Cancer Research Day, a global recognition of the life-changing research (past, present, and future) to end breast cancer. That w...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 4:34 PM
Citing "surprising reasons" in a headline is only a few steps above "one weird trick" on the click-bait scale, but in today's case, it's warranted. ...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 4:19 PM
UK Inflation Data Steals Show From Domestic Market Movers
Today's Retail Sales report and Fed Minutes were s...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 11:03 AM
This morning's Retail Sales data is already out and it was close enough to forecast to avoid having a big impact on bonds. Unfortunately, overnight t...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 10:09 AM
In Florida there are approximately 3,000 lakes, not enough to make it onto the leader board of states with the most named lakes (Minnesota, Wisconsin,...
Wed, Aug 17 2022, 8:57 AM
Mortgage application volume declined again last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 4:22 PM
Saying "ahead of Fed Minutes" in a headline about rates is a fairly cheap trick for a few reasons, or at least it can be. In today's case, it probabl...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 3:57 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker and Increasingly Range-Bound
The word "range" appears in both the opening and closi...
Tue, Aug 16 2022, 12:10 PM
Residential construction numbers fell again in July, giving credence to Monday’s National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB’s) report detailing a ne...
