Wed, Feb 8 2023, 9:57 AM
One of the biggest uncertainties of the week was resolved on Tuesday with Fed Chair Powell answering questions about the policy outlook without any re...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 9:56 AM
“Where can you always find money? In the dictionary.” Plenty of lenders and finding the money to buy other companies while smaller ones are looking fo...
Wed, Feb 8 2023, 8:25 AM
Refinancing pushed the volume of mortgage loan applications to one of its biggest week-over-week increases in ten months, during the period that ended...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 4:35 PM
The majority of January was characterized by sharp decline in mortgage rate volatility and the lowest rates in several months, the first week of Febru...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 3:19 PM
Bonds Tried (And Failed) to Sustain Post-Powell Rally
After much anticipation and defensive positioning, the...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 2:08 PM
The FHFA and S&P Case Shiller published home price index data last week for the month of November. Both showed moderate month-over-month declines off...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:44 AM
“Ain’t I rough enough? Ain’t I tough enough?” Ain't I rich enough? In love enough?” So Mick Jagger sang. This can apply to many parts of life, but in ...
Tue, Feb 7 2023, 9:11 AM
In the wake of last week's strong economic data on Friday and follow-through weakness in overseas markets, traders are gearing up for additional Fed r...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates were already under quite a bit of pressure on Friday following the stunningly strong jobs report in the morning. Strong economic data ...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 3:23 PM
Suddenly Scared About Powell and Supply
Most of today's market movement was in the books within the first ha...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 1:36 PM
Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor for December highlights a continuation of recent home price declines, an overview of current loan performances, rate l...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:50 AM
I travel a fair amount via commercial airplane. (Greetings today from Ft. Lauderdale; this afternoon it’ll be Chicago.) But forget traveling in heavie...
Mon, Feb 6 2023, 9:47 AM
Friday's strong jobs report and ISM data caused obvious, immediate problems for rates, but bonds held their ground fairly well all things considered. ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:34 PM
Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more grow...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow ...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 12:34 PM
While we may not have a great explanation or even the capacity to believe it, nonfarm payrolls came in at 517,000 this morning versus a median forecas...
Fri, Feb 3 2023, 9:31 AM
Fun with numbers! 1: the number of Chinese surveillance balloons over Montana. (That we know of.) Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? (Y...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates responded favorably to yesterday's press conference with Fed Chair Powell. We discussed that move in detail in yesterday's commentary:...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 3:52 PM
Bonds Talked Into Modest Gains by Europe
US bond traders didn't necessarily come into work with the intentio...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 11:21 AM
Today's big story is the European bond market's reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The hike was as-expected, but the ECB also ...
Thu, Feb 2 2023, 9:54 AM
Happy Groundhog Day, where the rodent saw its shadow this morning, so plan on six more weeks of winter. There’s an old Yiddish proverb “We plan, God l...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:48 PM
For some, this will be old hat. For others, there's a mystifying dynamic that demands explanation. The confusion stems from years of being condition...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 4:08 PM
Markets Surprisingly Surprised by Unsurprising Powell Comments
We were pretty sure we knew what Powell would...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 11:44 AM
Long gone are the days where the market waits to find out he size of a rate hike/cut. The current regime clearly communicates these things ahead of t...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 9:48 AM
I’ve never seen my cat Myrtle fly commercial. That aside, time “flies” by, Tom Brady retired again, and here’s a trivia question for your friends and ...
Wed, Feb 1 2023, 9:41 AM
Mortgage activity slowed significantly last week, pulling the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) Market Composite lower after three weeks of gains...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have been roughly in line with last week's latest levels at the beginning of the current week. That means they're fairly close to the ...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:48 PM
As rates spiked and sales contracted at the fastest pace in decades last year, we knew the post-pandemic surge in home prices was set to reverse. By ...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 3:19 PM
What to Expect From Fed Day
Markets can see the changes in inflation data and traders are eager to refine th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 9:14 AM
Does technology always trump personal skills? Sometimes. But not all the time. Good LOs use the technology that best suits them in combination with th...
Tue, Jan 31 2023, 8:54 AM
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is an economic report that was never on our radar as a top tier market mover in the past. Then in early 2022, Fed Cha...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 4:40 PM
Skittish Over Data and Central Bankers
With no relevant market movers on the US calendar today, it was notab...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 10:38 AM
Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key e...
Mon, Jan 30 2023, 10:07 AM
Want to really let someone know that you’re no longer interested in them? For $10 the San Antonio Zoo is offering a special Valentine’s Day greeting f...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:57 PM
5 for 5 on Uneventful Trading Days; Next Week Should be Different
Heading into this week, if we had to guess...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 4:43 PM
There are those who always try to portray the glass as being half full when it comes to the housing market. Then there are those who love a full glass...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 2:51 PM
For those in the housing and mortgage market, there's certainly been a shift in the tone over the past few weeks. I can't speak for everyone in that ...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 12:06 PM
The two reports most capable of surprising the market this week were Thursday's GDP and Friday's PCE. While it's always good to maintain some respect...
Fri, Jan 27 2023, 10:01 AM
Every lender or investor with an “a” in their name seems to be subject to rumors and news in recent months. (More on Flagstar and American Pacific bel...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 4:28 PM
No Major Reaction to Data Means More Focus on Next Week
Thursday morning's economic data provided one of onl...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 3:33 PM
Scheduled economic reports are one of the first places the market looks to get a read on interest rate momentum. Of all the days this week, Thursday ...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 2:50 PM
The Census Bureau's regularly scheduled monthly report on New Home Sales was released this morning. The annual pace of 616k was right in line with th...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 10:53 AM
Thursday's opening commentary could very well end up being the closing commentary. We came into the day entertaining the possibility that economic da...
Thu, Jan 26 2023, 9:26 AM
The most dangerous statement in the English language is, “But we’ve always done it this way.” Referral business has always been a mainstay in our biz,...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 4:26 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily determined by the bond market, and it's been an uneventful week for bonds! That means we haven't seen much of a change i...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 3:55 PM
Uneventful Week Continues
Next time bond traders have a hard time getting to sleep, they could just read a r...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 11:52 AM
If you'd like to skip right to the end, the week is shaping up to be every bit as inconsequential as anticipated with bonds holding in a fairly narrow...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 9:00 AM
There are a lot of topics being covered here at the MBA’s IMB conference. One of them is hedging, and if you want a primer on how lenders are protecti...
Wed, Jan 25 2023, 8:10 AM
Mortgage loan activity posted a third straight gain during the week ended January 20 . The Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) said its Market Composi...
