Wed, Oct 25 2017, 9:49 AM
We'll get to the good news in a moment. Bad news is obviously the order of the day as bonds are starting out with a big break through important tec...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 7:17 PM
Yesterday's recap suggested the week had yet to officially begin and that Monday's trading session had been more of an unofficial 3rd day of the weeke...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates jumped abruptly higher today for many lenders after reports of an informal show of hands in favor of John Taylor as Trump's potential F...
Tue, Oct 24 2017, 9:44 AM
We talked about yesterday being an unofficial 3rd day of the weekend in that trading volumes were light and the trading activity lacked conviction. T...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 5:42 PM
I refer to some Mondays as unofficial 3rd days of the weekend, and today's example qualifies. There were no significant economic reports, no substant...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today despite slight improvements in underlying bond markets. As of last Friday, the average lender was quotin...
Mon, Oct 23 2017, 8:56 AM
While there are certainly some weeks with far fewer economic reports on tap, the week ahead is still on the light side when it comes to the data that ...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 6:53 PM
There's a good video in the news stream with Austan Goolsbee going on a bit of rant about how the Senate's procedural vote on a budget resolution late...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 6:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as financial markets grew more optimistic about the potential for tax reform. Late last night, the Senate passed a r...
Fri, Oct 20 2017, 9:38 AM
It's a crappy day.
Sorry to use such an esoteric analytical term, but it's the most accurate way to describe the outlook. So what changed?
Lo...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 5:11 PM
It was a pretty interesting session for how narrow the range continues to be in bond markets--interesting both for bonds themselves and for the analys...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today. Political drama in Europe pushed stocks lower overnight and sent investors toward safer haven a...
Thu, Oct 19 2017, 8:34 AM
The past 3 days were disconcerting for bond markets--especially yesterday, which saw yields move higher at their quickest pace in two weeks. This thr...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 4:58 PM
Everything seemed so simple last Friday when bonds were surging past technical barriers in strong volume--ostensibly ringing the dinner bell for mor...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher today despite bigger movement in underlying bond markets. In part, this is a byproduct of the way rates behaved a...
Wed, Oct 18 2017, 9:43 AM
Ah mid-October... All too often in the 2009-2014 time frame, we'd seen abrupt reversals of trends at this time of month. We haven't really been on ...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 4:52 PM
Treasuries and MBS have spent the past 2 days trading well inside the range set by last Friday's volatility (big rally following CPI data). Unfortuna...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates were at their best levels in roughly a month last Friday afternoon. Since then, they've risen modestly on each of the past two business...
Tue, Oct 17 2017, 9:18 AM
As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds br...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. Underlying bond markets suggested a bit more movement, and that will l...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 5:01 PM
If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got fairly inte...
Mon, Oct 16 2017, 9:27 AM
It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 4:30 PM
There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to ...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 2:47 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today. For many lenders, it was the biggest drop in more than a month and it also brings them to the best levels in roughly...
Fri, Oct 13 2017, 8:18 AM
My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have been deliberat...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 8:04 PM
Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the curr...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 7:19 PM
Mortgage rate data collection is tricky business . Some sources rely on survey data that can have a limited collection window and a significant lag. O...
Thu, Oct 12 2017, 9:04 AM
CPI, CPI, CPI...
The "Consumer Price Index" is the one thing on this week's economic calendar that stood out as a top tier potential market mover. ...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 5:34 PM
"Well? Get on with it!"
That about sums up what the average bond market watcher was thinking at the end of September--and possibly again after t...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates haven't done much over the past few days, with the average lender offering substantially similar quotes every day in October. Depending...
Wed, Oct 11 2017, 8:50 AM
On both MBS Live and Mortgage News Daily, there's a video in the news stream titled "Key things to watch in the Fed minutes." The commentator rather ...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 4:49 PM
Bonds struggled to find a theme in their first trading day back from a 3-day weekend. Much of the international focus was on Catalonia's quest for in...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates were marginally lower today compared to last week, but only when factoring in upfront finance charges. Actual quoted interest rates hav...
Tue, Oct 10 2017, 9:00 AM
After having waited a day to begin trading this week due to yesterday's Columbus Day holiday, bond markets will spend today waiting for the week's mor...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 6:22 PM
The Employment Situation (aka the jobs report, or simply, "NFP") is the granddaddy of all economic reports. Through the years, no other piece of da...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 5:40 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, following a much weaker-than-expected jobs report. These are two things that essentially never go together. What ma...
Fri, Oct 6 2017, 8:22 AM
NFP, or "nonfarm payrolls" (the principle component of the big jobs report officially known as the "Employment Situation") are a bond market instituti...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 4:58 PM
Generally higher yields and tepid intraday performances are nothing new for bond markets over the past week and a half. In some ways, today marked a ...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 3:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, bringing the average lender back near 4% in terms of conventional 30yr fixed quotes for top tier scenarios. Most le...
Thu, Oct 5 2017, 8:49 AM
Yet again, bond markets have managed to string together 4 days doing something other than selling off abjectly. Without a firmer push toward lower ...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 5:19 PM
Bond markets saw a decent amount of strength in the afternoon. It ultimately allowed 10yr yields and MBS to return to positive territory by the end o...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 2:19 PM
Mortgage rates were very slightly lower today, but not by enough to have an impact on the actual interest rates being quoted. Specifically, the "effec...
Wed, Oct 4 2017, 9:11 AM
In 2011-2016, Europe was the dark horse market mover that ended up winning the race. Far too few domestic market participants appreciated the impact ...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 4:36 PM
Both yesterday and today have been the sort of days that just haven't mattered in the slightest for bond markets. Yesterday was spent consolidating ...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged today, on average, marking the second straight day with minimal change near the highest levels in more than 2 months. Fo...
Tue, Oct 3 2017, 9:05 AM
Bond markets are in the throes of their worst uptrend in yields since the November presidential election. Granted, trading levels are still roughly...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 5:30 PM
You never know... Sometimes the end of any given month will be skewed in one direction in terms of trading momentum only for the following month to s...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 4:57 PM
Mortgage rates were lower today for a few lenders, but higher for most others, dragging the average 0.01% higher in terms of effective rates. Note rat...
Mon, Oct 2 2017, 9:11 AM
The current trend in bond markets is not your friend. While it may sound trite, there's a reason we say "the trend is not your friend until it's your...
Fri, Sep 29 2017, 3:49 PM
The music is currently playing for the role of Fed Chair next year. When the music stops, Yellen may or may not still have a seat. News came out t...
