Thu, Sep 7 2017, 8:17 AM
Ask me two months (or even a month ago) and I would have placed today above almost any other in terms of importance to the overall outlook. The rea...
Wed, Sep 6 2017, 4:56 PM
Bond markets began the day holding impressively sideways. Why impressive? Because there was a small laundry list of potential reasons for weakness...
Wed, Sep 6 2017, 4:55 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower this morning, more by way of catching up with yesterday's market movement than anything. Specifically, bond markets (which ...
Wed, Sep 6 2017, 9:16 AM
Until the onset of brinksmanship with North Korea and the appearance of big, back-to-back Hurricanes, financial markets were more focused on long-term...
Tue, Sep 5 2017, 5:01 PM
Bonds rallied significantly today on a confluence of news. Disparate events and headlines hit markets at just the right time and in just the right ...
Tue, Sep 5 2017, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today on a combination of factors. Chief among these were headlines over the weekend concerning more North Korean weapons t...
Tue, Sep 5 2017, 9:05 AM
Global financial markets moved away from risk to start the holiday-shortened week as more North Korean missile drama made the news over the weekend....
Fri, Sep 1 2017, 6:06 PM
We talk a lot about participation among traders dropping off at mid-day when European markets close, but today's version turned bond markets into a ve...
Fri, Sep 1 2017, 2:24 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today despite a weak reading of the Employment Situation (aka "the jobs report"). This is traditionall...
Fri, Sep 1 2017, 8:30 AM
I wish Who Wants to be a Millionaire was still a popular show. Its catchphrases and terminology work really well with bond market psychology. Often ...
Thu, Aug 31 2017, 5:32 PM
Without month-end trading needs and in the absence of one of the most relevant inflation reports, today may well have been a typically slow summerti...
Thu, Aug 31 2017, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today--something they've been more likely to do in general since early July. The gradual downtrend brought them to their be...
Thu, Aug 31 2017, 8:34 AM
This week has admittedly been the same sort of summertime trading week that we've seen for most of July and August--perhaps even more so . By that I...
Wed, Aug 30 2017, 5:50 PM
Bond markets had a reasonably good day, all things considered. The caveat is that we shouldn't read much of anything into today's trading because i...
Wed, Aug 30 2017, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates were technically higher today vs yesterday, but unless you've been following day-to-day movements under a microscope, you probably won'...
Wed, Aug 30 2017, 10:09 AM
We've seen it before and we'll likely see it again. Bond markets (and most other markets, for that matter) respond quickly to some unexpected headlin...
Tue, Aug 29 2017, 6:28 PM
It's all well and good to highlight North Korea's missile launch as the dominant market mover for the day. It absolutely was. But it takes a little ...
Tue, Aug 29 2017, 6:00 PM
It's one thing for the highly competitive environment of "rate table" advertising (where lenders compete and you get confused) to be reporting mortgag...
Tue, Aug 29 2017, 9:48 AM
Amid the recent slow summertime trading, there are only a few things that stand a chance of catching the market's collective eye. Somewhere near the ...
Mon, Aug 28 2017, 7:25 PM
It's not normal for a 5yr Treasury auction to cause the biggest move in any given day for bond markets. That's an honor typically reserved for 10yr...
Mon, Aug 28 2017, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, as the news cycle was dominated by Hurricane Harvey. That's not to say that natural disasters prevent movement in mo...
Mon, Aug 28 2017, 9:35 AM
Sometimes, events are such that the typical summertime trading patterns aren't easily seen in terms of trading ranges and volatility. For instance, i...
Fri, Aug 25 2017, 5:54 PM
Today's Jackson Hole symposium couldn't have been any more anticlimactic even if this year's topic were "How to Deliver Anticlimactic Speeches on Mone...
Fri, Aug 25 2017, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged today, on average. Some lenders were slightly better, others were slightly worse, but none were very far from yesterday'...
Fri, Aug 25 2017, 9:58 AM
I've waited until the day itself to abbreviate the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium with the beloved "J-Hole." Pretty impressive considering how much fun...
Thu, Aug 24 2017, 4:50 PM
Bond markets have been generally rallying since early July. The apparent inspiration for that rally was the sell-off that preceded it. That weakne...
Thu, Aug 24 2017, 2:35 PM
Mortgage rates haven't moved much at all recently. While that leaves us little to talk about if we're examining rate changes on a daily basis, it's a ...
Thu, Aug 24 2017, 9:22 AM
Most of my analysis in July and August focused on the positive technical boundary (aka "floor") at 2.21-2.22. As of yesterday, that floor is increasi...
Wed, Aug 23 2017, 5:26 PM
If there were a magical ratio comparing the overall movement in bond markets to the relevance of the factors motivating the movement, it would be off...
Wed, Aug 23 2017, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates reversed yesterday's move today, falling back in line with recent lows--also the lowest levels since November 2016. At this time of yea...
Wed, Aug 23 2017, 9:25 AM
Coincidentally, yesterday's Day Ahead talked about "pivot points." Now today, we see a prime example of a pivot point in action. Although I labele...
Tue, Aug 22 2017, 4:23 PM
I'm not shy about dismissing the conventional wisdom of bond yields and stock prices following each other. We're talking about some iteration of th...
Tue, Aug 22 2017, 2:56 PM
Mortgage rates rose today, but by a small enough amount that it shouldn't crush too many hopes and dreams. For all intents and purposes, rates remain ...
Tue, Aug 22 2017, 10:32 AM
We have a dedicated primer on pivot points here . But let's look at a timely example with the pivot points we've been tracking in recent weeks. Act...
Mon, Aug 21 2017, 4:47 PM
It's a good thing financial media outlets aren't too shy about covering topics outside the financial sphere because without the eclipse, there would h...
Mon, Aug 21 2017, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates held steady to start the new week. This keeps them in line with the best levels since November 2016. There were no interesting developm...
Mon, Aug 21 2017, 9:56 AM
Welcome! Here is a safe haven from all of the eclipse talk. It won't be mentioned at all in this article. Never mind that it's in the title and the...
Fri, Aug 18 2017, 8:20 PM
In the Day Ahead, we discussed bond traders' probable goals regarding keeping things as calm as possible. This depended on unexpected headlines and m...
Fri, Aug 18 2017, 7:54 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower again. Drama surrounding the Trump administration was also present. But this time around, the political theater wasn't resp...
Fri, Aug 18 2017, 7:34 AM
A maritime analogy for bond trading in the Summertime...
In the summer months especially, there's a boat-friendly baseline weather pattern offshore...
Thu, Aug 17 2017, 6:01 PM
What do you get when bond markets embark on a snowball rally due to headlines concerning Trump's Economic Advisor Gary Cohn? A delicious "Snow Cohn,"...
Thu, Aug 17 2017, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates fell yesterday in response to a tweet about Trump disbanding his councils of CEOs. Twitter was in play again today . This time around i...
Thu, Aug 17 2017, 10:22 AM
With this morning's econ data already out and having no effect on bond markets, the only other report for the week is tomorrow morning's Consumer Sent...
Wed, Aug 16 2017, 5:28 PM
Today looked like it would be all about waiting for the Fed Minutes to see if there were any surprises. That plan began in fairly good shape, with on...
Wed, Aug 16 2017, 5:05 PM
Mortgage rates dropped today after news broke (first rumors, then confirmation via Twitter) that President Trump was disbanding his councils of CEOs. ...
Wed, Aug 16 2017, 9:32 AM
Today's biggest calendar item is the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. The Minutes provide synopsis of the meeting that took place in the 2 days le...
Tue, Aug 15 2017, 4:15 PM
Today was mostly about North Korean de-escalation, and somewhat about stronger economic data. If you haven't heard 43 times already, North Korea grac...
Tue, Aug 15 2017, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today as markets reacted to news that North Korea would tactically abstain from launching nuclear weapons at Guam beca...
Tue, Aug 15 2017, 9:08 AM
Geopolitical risk is one of the most intuitive market movers for bonds. Threats of nuclear attacks from North Korea (as well as the rhetorical respon...
Mon, Aug 14 2017, 5:16 PM
Bond markets lost ground today, with all of the weakness arriving during the overnight session. The weakness was driven by a general "risk-on" move...
