Mon, Aug 14 2017, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates rose moderately today as weekend news headlines suggested some measure of de-escalation of nuclear tensions between the US and North Ko...
Mon, Aug 14 2017, 10:32 AM
If you haven't seen/read my primers on various technical analysis topics, they're linked at certain points in the text below, and will be helpful in m...
Fri, Aug 11 2017, 5:59 PM
Bond markets ultimately rallied modestly following today's much-anticipated CPI data. This is a departure from recent norms as the last 3 reports...
Fri, Aug 11 2017, 5:40 PM
Mortgage rates held near the lowest levels since November 2016 today, after a key economic report showed subdued inflation. The Consumer Price Index (...
Fri, Aug 11 2017, 8:28 AM
After a longstanding reign as one of the most meaningful market movers, inflation data became an outcast for most of the recovery from the financial c...
Thu, Aug 10 2017, 4:29 PM
It's hard to appreciate just how different the trading session was for stocks compared to bonds. To be sure, a near 5bp drop in 10yr yields is "nice,...
Thu, Aug 10 2017, 3:39 PM
Mortgage rates remained in line with 2017's lows today, despite noticeable improvement in underlying bond markets. Under normal circumstances, bond ma...
Thu, Aug 10 2017, 10:02 AM
In terms of 10yr yields, bond markets have been locked in the same narrow range for a week and half. Even when the range was only 2 days old last wee...
Wed, Aug 9 2017, 6:10 PM
Bonds had already begun the process of rallying in response to geopolitical risk yesterday afternoon. Notably, the headlines hit after the 3pm CME ...
Wed, Aug 9 2017, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates fell to new lows for the year today, following the North Korea nuclear threat headlines. In truth, the preceding sentence gives too muc...
Wed, Aug 9 2017, 10:05 AM
There are several definitions of "pain trade" floating around on the web, and I'm not a huge fan of any of them. The top google hit is particularly b...
Tue, Aug 8 2017, 7:15 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory and continued to lose ground through the early afternoon. After consolidating in extreme fashion...
Tue, Aug 8 2017, 6:50 PM
Mortgage rates moved microscopically lower today, keeping them in line with the best levels in more than a month. The caveat is that there really hasn...
Tue, Aug 8 2017, 10:05 AM
The extent to which inflation-related metrics have come into focus is uncanny relative to just how unimportant they'd been to markets for most of th...
Mon, Aug 7 2017, 5:55 PM
Bond markets began the week in underwhelming fashion, with both MBS and Treasuries ending the day very close to unchanged compared to Friday's latest ...
Mon, Aug 7 2017, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, compared to Friday afternoon's latest levels. Only a handful of lenders responded to strength in bond m...
Mon, Aug 7 2017, 10:08 AM
Last week's NFP was eerily predictable. Either that, or I got lucky.
My thought was that the market had been fairly range-bound and especially d...
Fri, Aug 4 2017, 5:55 PM
The week began on Tuesday, for all intents and purposes. July's "month-end" trading generally took place by last Friday and Monday was left as a mere...
Fri, Aug 4 2017, 5:26 PM
While it was far from a dramatic move mortgage rates ticked slightly higher after today's Employment Situation data, otherwise known simply as "the jo...
Fri, Aug 4 2017, 9:13 AM
My commentary took a bearish turn , essentially saying that bond markets had done what they could to price-in a poor NFP number and that anything out...
Thu, Aug 3 2017, 7:20 PM
I hate to say anything bad about bond market gains. Bond market gains are among a few of my favorite things, after all! I also hope I'm wrong in thi...
Thu, Aug 3 2017, 3:28 PM
Mortgage rates moved just slightly lower today, bringing them to the best levels in over a month for the 2nd time this week. While that sounds somewha...
Thu, Aug 3 2017, 9:05 AM
The longer the post-election trade plays out (in 3 months, it will have been a year!), the flatter it looks. There have essentially been two similar...
Wed, Aug 2 2017, 5:14 PM
The chart in this morning's Day Ahead showed consolidation patterns (lower highs and higher lows) in both German Bunds and US Treasuries. For the l...
Wed, Aug 2 2017, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, keeping them in line with the best levels in just over a month. That means the best-qualified borrowers putting more...
Wed, Aug 2 2017, 9:25 AM
With this morning's ADP data and Treasury Refunding Announcement (lays out the slate of auction sizes for the upcoming fiscal quarter ending on Octobe...
Tue, Aug 1 2017, 4:28 PM
Was it "new month" trading? Or was it a reaction to abysmal sales data from GM? Does it matter if the net effect was a nice move lower for rates? ...
Tue, Aug 1 2017, 3:27 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today, matching the best levels in just over a month. Prospective borrowers are increasingly seeing conventional 30yr f...
Tue, Aug 1 2017, 9:53 AM
"Impending breakout" sounds a bit more dramatic than reality may prove to be, but one never can be sure what the future will hold for bond markets. W...
Mon, Jul 31 2017, 5:19 PM
Today's economic data consisted only of Chicago PMI (sometimes a decent market mover) and Pending Home Sales (rarely a noticeable market mover). It a...
Mon, Jul 31 2017, 4:43 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower today, despite an absence of improvement in underlying bond markets. Rates typically rise in this scenario, but th...
Mon, Jul 31 2017, 9:09 AM
Last Friday's AM commentary had a detailed write-up on the significance of " month-end bond buying ." Here's a link to that, and here's a link to our ...
Fri, Jul 28 2017, 6:30 PM
Overnight weakness almost ruined it, but 10yr yields just barely held inside the necessary levels to claim their third straight "inside day." In ot...
Fri, Jul 28 2017, 5:16 PM
Mortgage rates were generally flat today, despite improvements in underlying bond markets. Although several lenders did offer price improvements throu...
Fri, Jul 28 2017, 10:05 AM
We often talk about the month-end trading environment as relatively more supportive for bond markets--all other things being equal. Reason for this a...
Thu, Jul 27 2017, 4:41 PM
This week continues to be all about Tuesday for bond markets. That was the day with the rather violent, inexplicable sell-off that took yields from...
Thu, Jul 27 2017, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender, but generally held fairly close to yesterday's levels. All this in spite of bond market weak...
Thu, Jul 27 2017, 9:40 AM
What is a tradeflow? We have a primer that attempts to answer that question on MBS Live (this one), but even after reading that multiple times, you ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 6:44 PM
Today's focus was understandably on the Fed Announcement, and indeed, most of the movement followed it. But interestingly enough, the biggest volume ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, despite fairly substantial movement in underlying bond markets. Bond prices ultimately do more to ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 2:02 PM
(Additions underlined, deletions struck through)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May June indicates that the ...
Wed, Jul 26 2017, 9:43 AM
Remember 2015? The Fed spent the whole year talking about hiking rates for the first after spending years at 0% and ultimately didn't get around to i...
Tue, Jul 25 2017, 4:24 PM
Bonds sold off aggressively today, for a combination of reasons that are tremendously unsatisfying in a traditional market-watching sense. For exam...
Tue, Jul 25 2017, 3:18 PM
Mortgage rates moved abruptly higher today, erasing the improvement seen last week. An entire week's worth of movement may or may not be worth stressi...
Tue, Jul 25 2017, 9:21 AM
After enjoying a nice rally since July 10th, bond markets are taking the 2 days leading up to tomorrow's Fed announcement to book some profits and get...
Mon, Jul 24 2017, 5:18 PM
How's that for an exciting headline? At least it's an " extreme ," technically--just not the sort of extreme that would pique our interest (but still...
Mon, Jul 24 2017, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today, which leaves them in line with the lowest levels in July. In underlying bond markets (bond movement directly impacts...
Mon, Jul 24 2017, 10:03 AM
In March 2011, the Fed announced it would change things up with respect to its policy announcements. Although there would still be 8 of them each yea...
Fri, Jul 21 2017, 6:09 PM
As expected, today could be better characterized as a highly-regulated narcotic sleep aid than an interesting trading day for bond markets. The dream...
Fri, Jul 21 2017, 5:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today, setting yet another new low for the month of July. For the past 2 weeks, rates have been pushing back against a fair...
