Fri, Jul 22 2016, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates didn't budge , compared to yesterday's, which leaves them in line with their highest levels since late June. A small majority lende...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 8:49 AM
With slight weakness overnight, bonds begin the domestic trading session with their backs against the wall, yet again. The "wall" in this case could ...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 5:51 PM
Any time we watch a sideways range rates with fairly clear technical boundaries, it's only natural to hope that the upper boundary will hold up in the...
Thu, Jul 21 2016, 4:59 PM
For most lenders, you'd have to go back to late June in order to see mortgage rates any higher than they were today, although several lenders d...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 9:25 AM
Bond yields hit all time lows. Then they bounced higher. Widespread discussion ensued on the next "key levels" to watch. The goal, of course, is ...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 4:30 PM
Over the past two days there has been a relative explosion of analyst interviews (from big firms like JP Morgan , etc.) calling for big, inevitable...
Wed, Jul 20 2016, 2:24 PM
Mortgage rates held perfectly steady today, with most lenders offering the exact same quotes as yesterday. The most prevalent conventional 30yr fix...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 8:49 AM
The concept of "the gap" is one of the most basic when it comes to analyzing charts of financial market movement. Under the most common definition of...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 5:15 PM
In the magical sharing circle that is global financial markets, the "talking stick" was passed to bonds, as it is every day. But rather than share a ...
Tue, Jul 19 2016, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways in some cases today, and very slightly lower in others, making for one of their better performances over the past few w...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 9:33 AM
Have you noticed a few more email auto-responses starting late last week? Summer travel season is in full swing and this week is an especially good "...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 6:18 PM
Friday afternoon was a complicated thing to think about when it comes to markets and their motivations for movement. Given the time of day that the T...
Mon, Jul 18 2016, 5:23 PM
Mortgage rates remain under pressure over the past few weeks after hitting near-all-time lows in early July. With one exception, rates have been ei...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 8:31 AM
Granted, economic data in the US is far from the only game in town at the moment. In fact, it's probably one of the least important games there is, ...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 6:34 PM
Except for the very end of the trading session, today was all about domestic economic data and all about the logical bond market weakness that followe...
Fri, Jul 15 2016, 5:39 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving higher, in general, this week. That upward momentum tends to coincide with weakness in broader bond markets. For i...
Thu, Jul 14 2016, 8:30 AM
Bonds are back on the ropes again to start the day as the Bank of England (BOE) surprised markets by holding rates steady. This was their way of fl...
Thu, Jul 14 2016, 5:20 PM
Bond markets weakened overnight as Yen/USD surged higher (meaning Yen is weakening versus the dollar). This has to do with the potential for new stim...
Thu, Jul 14 2016, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher again today, and this time, it's personal! OK, so it's not really "personal," but it is now more of a concern f...
Wed, Jul 13 2016, 9:06 AM
Have you ever wondered why technical analysts and other seemingly savvy market commentators tend to reference moving averages that are nice, round nu...
Wed, Jul 13 2016, 6:04 PM
US bond markets were completely done moving by the time the domestic session began. Case in point, 10yr yields ended the day at 1.473, exactly the sa...
Wed, Jul 13 2016, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates moved just slightly lower today, following a fairly abrupt spike over the first two days of the week. This the sort of movement that...
Tue, Jul 12 2016, 9:21 AM
Back in the good old days during the infancy of the financial crisis, much was made of Bernanke's study of Japan's massive, long term , secular defla...
Tue, Jul 12 2016, 6:42 PM
The very next day after Brexit headlines sunk 10yr yields to long-term lows in late June, we began talking about "1.53%" in 10yr Treasury yields. Thi...
Tue, Jul 12 2016, 5:01 PM
Mortgage rates are on the move, heading noticeably higher after a more subtle increase yesterday. With that, this week now stands as the first majo...
Mon, Jul 11 2016, 9:04 AM
To whatever extent economic data matters, the week ahead will gradually crescendo by Friday, which boasts the two most important reports: CPI and Ret...
Mon, Jul 11 2016, 5:41 PM
If I didn't know any better, I'd say it looked like MBS were simply "tired of moving" in relative proportion to Treasuries as the latter undergo some ...
Mon, Jul 11 2016, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today, but not by very much, considering the amount of movement seen in other corners of financial markets. For instanc...
Fri, Jul 8 2016, 8:20 AM
Perhaps as long ago as April 2014, when the first major talk of the European Central Bank's impending QE plan began circulating, domestic economic dat...
Fri, Jul 8 2016, 5:36 PM
I wouldn't go so far as to say "the impossible happened today," but at the very least, we could call it "the improbable." A lot was at stake headin...
Fri, Jul 8 2016, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates held surprisingly steady despite a strong employment headline. The big jobs report came out today, and it showed payroll creation at...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 9:00 AM
After an epic run to all-time Treasury lows (and nearly all-time mortgage rate lows) bond markets are flashing warning signs about a bounce. This sor...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 4:51 PM
Bonds slightly weaker overnight; no major drama
AM employment data (ADP and Jobless Claims) prompted more selling
Stock prices and bond yields b...
Thu, Jul 7 2016, 2:02 PM
Mortgage rates finally ended an impressive winning streak today, rising for the first time in 9 days. Rates began that streak with a massive move l...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 8:42 AM
Bond markets enter domestic session at new all-time low yields
Yet again, there are no stand-out, individual motivations
All about he big pictu...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 5:25 PM
Treasury yields hit new intraday all-time lows overnight
Traders were lined up to sell at the open (profit-taking)
Weakness continued after stro...
Wed, Jul 6 2016, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today, extending an already-uncanny winning streak to its 8th straight day. The most recent improvements bring the averag...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 9:36 AM
Global yields begin week at new all-time lows
Underlying reasons haven't changed
What ends this?
If you only look at the US as a represent...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 4:00 PM
10yr yields traded well into the 1.3's, surpassing previous low of 1.381
No specific motivation at home or abroad, though there are several support...
Tue, Jul 5 2016, 3:05 PM
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably today, bringing quite a few lenders down to 3.25% in terms of conventional 30yr fixed quotes on top tier scenarios...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 9:58 AM
10yr yield hit 1.382 overnight
All-time low was 1.381 in July 2012
Welcome to the New Normal
We had a great discussion in the live chat on...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 3:50 PM
Strong overnight pop in Treasuries, ECB headlines cited
Record low 30yr bond yield and near-record low in 10yr yield
Bonds lost ground after Eur...
Fri, Jul 1 2016, 1:39 PM
Mortgage rates fell moderately today, adding a 6th day to a winning streak that began with last week's Brexit news and bringing rates right to the b...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 9:09 AM
Bonds remain generally strong despite yesterday's losses
There continues to be a good line in the sand that can warn against a bigger shift
Furt...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 6:41 PM
Bonds bounced back as month-end buying hit its stride
Second wind came from Bank of England comments on likely stimulus
Yields bounced higher...
Thu, Jun 30 2016, 2:26 PM
Mortgage rates trickled slightly lower today, technically taking them to another in a string of 3-year lows over the past 2 weeks. The most recent,...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 9:32 AM
Woops! I gave away the formula for 99% of any market analysis over the past week, but I have ...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 4:45 PM
Bonds continued holding ultra-narrow post-Brexit range until 3pm
At that point, Treasuries spiked aggressively and MBS eventually followed
Initi...
Wed, Jun 29 2016, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today, on average, with some lenders showing slight improvements while others moved just a bit higher. Even o...
Tue, Jun 28 2016, 9:09 AM
Bond rallies don't last forever
2 ways for rates to move higher: temporary, nominal corrections, and full-scale reversals
Here's one easy way to...
