Mon, Jun 6 2016, 9:36 AM
Very light economic calendar this week
Fed Announcement next week
Yellen speaks later today (jobs data will invariably come up)
bond yields a...
Mon, Jun 6 2016, 5:17 PM
Bonds slightly weaker for no overt reasons
Yellen speech hotly anticipated and quickly overlooked
Taken together with Friday's gains, today mean...
Mon, Jun 6 2016, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, erasing only some of the massive improvements seen after last Friday's jobs report. In general, most le...
Fri, Jun 3 2016, 8:17 AM
Strong, stable payroll growth is old news. Yet another NFP reading north of 150k or another 5%-ish unemployment reading are just a few more bricks in...
Fri, Jun 3 2016, 4:35 PM
Jobs reports generally don't move markets any more
But they do when they're this far from the forecast
NFP came in at 38k vs 164k
This adds t...
Fri, Jun 3 2016, 2:29 PM
Mortgage rates plummeted today, relatively speaking, fully erasing the damage done 2 weeks ago after the Fed Minutes sent rates higher at the fastes...
Thu, Jun 2 2016, 8:19 AM
ADP data rescheduled for today
ECB Press Conference on tap
Not much else by way of data
Slow trickle of gains makes for potential momentum sh...
Thu, Jun 2 2016, 4:30 PM
Bonds rallied on rate-friendly press conference from European Central Bank
Gains subsided as Europe closed
Bounce in oil and stocks may have con...
Thu, Jun 2 2016, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates rose modestly today, despite improvements in underlying bond markets. This was in line with our discussion about "the catch" associa...
Wed, Jun 1 2016, 8:20 AM
Yesterday was tense at moments, with several attempts made to break the range
Not only did the range hold, but we quickly moved back to the other s...
Wed, Jun 1 2016, 4:44 PM
Bond markets stronger overnight
New 2-week lows in 10yr yields, but weaker bounce after ISM
Biggest issue with ISM was Prices Paid (63.5 vs 59.8...
Wed, Jun 1 2016, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels in roughly two weeks this morning. That's a seemingly positive statement, but while it's true, there are...
Tue, May 31 2016, 8:29 AM
Last week's moderate resilience could have been temporary due to 'month-end'
This could also help today, to some extent
If it doesn't, it's the ...
Tue, May 31 2016, 5:05 PM
Bonds opened weaker as Yellen's Friday comments reverberated
data was largely ignored
Bonds rallied after Brexit poll and technical ceiling in 1...
Tue, May 31 2016, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged to begin the short work-week for financial markets, though that wasn't the case at first. Earlier this morn...
Fri, May 27 2016, 12:48 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. Financial markets closed early for Memorial Day weekend, and will be...
Fri, May 27 2016, 8:27 AM
GDP at 8:30am won't matter
Consumer Sentiment at 10am won't matter
Yellen at 10:30am (and 1:15pm) won't matter
All of the above--but especial...
Fri, May 27 2016, 2:05 PM
GDP was +0.8 vs +0.9 forecast this morning
Consumer Sentiment was 94.7 vs 95.4
Inflation expectations were the lowest since 2010
But markets ...
Thu, May 26 2016, 9:02 AM
Less about data and more about Fed outlook
3.5-day weekend is also a consideration for tradeflows
2 distinct options correspond to holding vs b...
Thu, May 26 2016, 5:59 PM
Early month-end trading environment provided constant support
Strong Durable Goods headline didn't matter
gains were linear into the noon hour, ...
Thu, May 26 2016, 5:23 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower today. Given that rates had spiked last Wednesday and haven't moved too much since then, today's improvement wa...
Wed, May 25 2016, 9:02 AM
Today brings 5yr Treasury auction = "supply pressure"
Technical analysis is still negative
Still, we can hope to get lucky with help from 'mont...
Wed, May 25 2016, 4:34 PM
Bonds have been sideways to slightly weaker since last week's FOMC Minutes
Markets not only coming to terms with increased June/July rate hike odds...
Wed, May 25 2016, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, depending on the lender. Most of the movement seen was toward slightly higher levels. The bond markets that...
Tue, May 24 2016, 9:11 AM
Bonds continue sideways grind in bigger picture
Lots of focus remaining on Oil prices in news and analytical community
Is it justified?
As...
Tue, May 24 2016, 5:37 PM
Bonds were weaker throughout European hours (3am to 1pm)
Stock prices moved significantly higher and were well-correlated with bond losses
10yr ...
Tue, May 24 2016, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Some lenders adjusted rates higher in the middle of the day to reflect bond market weakne...
Mon, May 23 2016, 9:43 AM
After 2012, low rates in US have followed Europe
Even then, US rates have set their own limits
Now we're bouncing along those limits again and '...
Mon, May 23 2016, 5:18 PM
The title says it all
Overnight session was calm
European bonds were weaker at the close, putting pressure on US bond markets
Bonds bounced b...
Mon, May 23 2016, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates were relatively steady again , marking the third straight business day with almost no rate movement following last week's quick spike ...
Fri, May 20 2016, 9:14 AM
It is the bigger picture, as opposed to day-to-day minutia that will drive trading momentum
Trading levels and technicals suggest an utterly indeci...
Fri, May 20 2016, 5:04 PM
One of the most anticlimactic days in recent memory
bonds did nothing other than shuffle through some incidental 'housekeeping' trades
yields cl...
Fri, May 20 2016, 4:28 PM
Mortgage rates held mostly steady today, as some lenders were just barely higher and others slightly lower than yesterday's latest levels. With tha...
Thu, May 19 2016, 8:53 AM
Yesterday was a wake-up call, forcing us to think about defense vs offense
Shorter term trends already under attack
longer term trends aren't to...
Thu, May 19 2016, 4:54 PM
Bonds undergo token correction after yesterday's rout
technicals remain precarious
Fed speeches were in focus, but turned out to be fairly non...
Thu, May 19 2016, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back today, to some extent, after rising at the fastest pace in more than 3 months yesterday. Most of yesterday's damage rem...
Wed, May 18 2016, 9:06 AM
Just looking at 10yr or MBS doesn't paint too much of a picture
But when we compare longer-term with shorter-term debt, things become clear
Bond...
Wed, May 18 2016, 5:02 PM
Anxiety was growing yesterday about the Fed Minutes surprising
Bonds weakened
The Fed Minutes surprised
Bonds weakened some more
This coul...
Wed, May 18 2016, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates skyrocketed today, relative to their recent average daily movement, following the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed mee...
Tue, May 17 2016, 8:22 AM
"Bad" is a relative term, but momentum may be shifting
Today's trading will be pivotal in determining that
The stakes are not too high, for now ...
Tue, May 17 2016, 5:34 PM
2 things: tomorrow's FOMC Minutes and Today's Dell corporate bond
Both put pressure on bond markets
majority of weakness was in afternoon ...
Tue, May 17 2016, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as investors sold assets ahead of tomorrow's Fed Minutes. Asset prices move lower when sellers outweigh buyers, a...
Mon, May 16 2016, 9:03 AM
Bonds have stayed strong, despite apparent headwinds
Technicals suggest we're due for a bounce
Such a bounce could still be part of a broader, p...
Mon, May 16 2016, 5:20 PM
Bond markets began in slightly weaker territory and kept losing ground
Most of the losses were in by 10am as corporate issuance became the trade...
Mon, May 16 2016, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates held surprisingly steady today, even though underlying bond markets were in noticeably weaker territory. As bonds weaken, rates norm...
Fri, May 13 2016, 8:23 AM
10yr yields still consolidating in bigger picture.
"triangles" often throw head-fakes
Stocks' fate still unclear
Retail Sales is only big-...
Fri, May 13 2016, 5:49 PM
Modestly strong overnight session gave way to losses following Retail Sales data
Bonds never went too red and then gradually found footing
No ...
Fri, May 13 2016, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates found their footing today, moving sideways to slightly lower after losing ground the past two days. Earlier this week, rates hit the...
Thu, May 12 2016, 8:50 AM
1.72 has been more of a roadblock than any other level for 10yr yields
We're currently at risk of bouncing there
Today's data may not help, bu...
Thu, May 12 2016, 5:10 PM
bond markets took a hit overnight and never fully recovered
Yields topped out heading into the NYSE open and again after the auction
30yr auctio...
