Thu, Oct 22 2015, 7:33 AM
Over the past two days, we saw a surprisingly strong move higher in European bond yields that spilled over to US bond markets. The effects were mute...
Thu, Oct 22 2015, 5:07 PM
Stocks and bonds continued on their divergent paths today thanks to the European Central Bank. While there had been some speculation that the ECB w...
Thu, Oct 22 2015, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today, largely getting caught up with yesterday's underlying market movements. Lenders were likely being cautious ...
Wed, Oct 21 2015, 8:48 AM
As you've likely picked up on, this week has served primarily as a chance for markets to do whatever they need to do ahead of next week's FOMC announc...
Wed, Oct 21 2015, 4:30 PM
Nothing has changed from the mid-day update, so today's recap will largely be an amplification of those themes.
Bond markets were stronger overni...
Wed, Oct 21 2015, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back
to some extent today, after yesterday's bigger move higher. The bond
markets that underlie mortgage rates actuall...
Wed, Oct 21 2015, 1:39 PM
Yesterday marked the first legitimate swoon in US bond markets in more than a week. The 3 days prior were especially flat, with 10yr yields ending th...
Tue, Oct 20 2015, 12:56 PM
Bond markets lost ground overnight, moving resolutely higher in yield during the European session. The Treasury weakness is notable in that it occu...
Tue, Oct 20 2015, 7:33 AM
This probably won't be the last time I mention it before next Wednesday, but next Wednesday is the FOMC Announcement. That's the one where Yellen sai...
Tue, Oct 20 2015, 5:36 PM
"Move along... Nothing to see here..." Despite the 4.6 bp increase in 10yr yields and the quarter point drop in MBS Prices, today was actually rathe...
Tue, Oct 20 2015, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rates were moderately higher today, ending a 4 day streak near the lowest levels in more than 5 months. To be fair, the streak isn't tec...
Mon, Oct 19 2015, 7:33 AM
I remember when I used to think that certain super smart, well-connected, high-powered traders actually knew where rates would be heading with better ...
Mon, Oct 19 2015, 5:00 PM
Time for another installment of "the headline is the recap." Bond markets sold-off a bit at noon and came back to end just barely inside positive ter...
Mon, Oct 19 2015, 4:27 PM
It wouldn't have taken much for mortgage rates to outdo themselves in terms of volatility when compared to the past few business days. Last Thu...
Mon, Oct 19 2015, 2:15 PM
Bond markets were weaker during the overnight session--at least at first. The easiest scapegoat for that weakness was the less-than-awful GDP print ...
Fri, Oct 16 2015, 7:51 AM
The October Fed meeting is still more than a week away, but it already looks like bond markets are preparing for it. Preparation for big events often...
Fri, Oct 16 2015, 7:20 PM
Stocks put in another day of gains today. This is important for 2 reasons. First, they--and by "they," I mean the S&P and S&P futures, which is the ...
Fri, Oct 16 2015, 5:13 PM
Mortgage rates had a tremendously uneventful day, holding roughly the same levels as those seen yesterday and the day before. In this case, a lac...
Fri, Oct 16 2015, 2:27 PM
Friday's trading has been slightly less exciting and has cut a much narrower range than Thursday's trading. Markets might as well not even be open ....
Thu, Oct 15 2015, 7:54 PM
MBS and Treasury yields moved into weaker territory after the 8:30am release of CPI and Jobless Claims this morning. One can only surmise that invest...
Thu, Oct 15 2015, 7:33 AM
Nothing like a good tragedy for lighthearted mid-week viewing as far as bond markets are concerned. Various global economies' data is growing ever we...
Thu, Oct 15 2015, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold their ground for the most part today. This is good to see, considering that the broader bond market had a tougher ...
Thu, Oct 15 2015, 1:34 PM
The overnight session began with markets showing their collective hand as stock prices and bond yields moved higher together. It's as if the memo wen...
Wed, Oct 14 2015, 8:46 AM
Bond markets love negative economic data--especially when the Fed is ostensibly waiting for domestic economic data to merely hold steady in order to j...
Wed, Oct 14 2015, 7:13 PM
One year ago today, things "got real" for bond markets as they leaped into significantly stronger territory, ultimately ending the day at the best clo...
Wed, Oct 14 2015, 5:13 PM
Mortgage rates dropped quickly today, getting them much of the way back to lows seen at the beginning of the month. For context, there has only b...
Wed, Oct 14 2015, 2:34 PM
Even a slew of corporate bond issuance isn't holding back bond markets from another strong move lower in yield today. In fact, in a break from the ...
Tue, Oct 13 2015, 9:15 AM
The surprisingly weak NFP at the beginning of October helped bond markets extend an already strong rally. The strength of the post-NFP rally was a su...
Tue, Oct 13 2015, 5:30 PM
Heading into 3-day weekends, it's not uncommon for investors to move to the sidelines by selling some of their holdings with the intention of getting ...
Tue, Oct 13 2015, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today , erasing only some of the weakness that dominated the previous week. In other words, rates were significantly hi...
Tue, Oct 13 2015, 1:56 PM
The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow but positive start for bond markets. The early overnight trading wholly confirms our "move to the sidel...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 7:33 AM
You would think that after years of working in the same office that market participants would know how to find their way to the door. Yet strangely e...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 6:32 PM
After trending decisively higher during almost every hour since hitting bottom last Friday, stocks and bond yields leveled off today. Perhaps it's ...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 5:48 PM
Mortgage rates were generally quiet today as bond markets wound down ahead of the 3-day weekend. While stock markets and many businesses will be ...
Fri, Oct 9 2015, 2:15 PM
I reserve the right for this "MBS MID-DAY" to also be the "MBS RECAP" as I don't expect much to happen in the rest of the trading day. It seems fairl...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 7:32 AM
Any deep hypothetical analysis of recent bond market behavior requires a caveat about volume and volatility . Namely, we haven't had any of either o...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 5:40 PM
The overnight session was extra quiet for bond markets, with no meaningful movements until after 8am. In hindsight, uneventful was good as the recent...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 5:01 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher today , depending on the lender. Once again, pricing strategies remained widely variable due to market volati...
Thu, Oct 8 2015, 1:10 PM
Bonds continue following the broader global correction leading back from the stock market weakness at the end of September. This has been a classic ...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 12:55 PM
Domestic bond markets continue to be more-or-less glued to stocks . Treasuries began flat in the overnight session, but yields soon began rising as ...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 8:42 AM
Every so often, amid the multitude of relatively vague and more complex technical indicators, bond markets just 'give us the answer.' Granted, the an...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 5:36 PM
In yet another installment of "the headline is the recap," today's trading session was largely uneventful apart from the moderate weakness carried ove...
Wed, Oct 7 2015, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates put in another day with minimal movement today. If there was a detectable bias, it was toward slightly higher rates, but many lend...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 12:56 PM
Overnight trading was inconsequential for domestic bond markets with both Treasuries and MBS hitting New York hours very close to 'unchanged.' Asian ...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 7:33 AM
That disturbance you might have felt in the force--that's the high-conviction shift in both stocks and bonds. Whereas both had been defying the conse...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold their ground in
most cases today. That's a refreshing turn of events considering the
forceful move higher seen...
Tue, Oct 6 2015, 4:57 PM
Bond markets came into the domestic session roughly unchanged, but soon found themselves under pressure. Before 9am, concerns over the day's corporat...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 7:33 AM
Friday's NFP reaction was fun, and then perhaps a bit painful. The data itself was abhorrent--coming in weaker in every imaginable way and without an...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 5:06 PM
Here it is the end of Monday and markets are still stuck on the same old thoughts and strategies that existed last week even before the NFP release. ...
Mon, Oct 5 2015, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates moved substantially higher today in the context of recent day-to-day changes. In the broader context, we're still talking about 30...
