Tue, Jan 12 2016, 7:33 AM
There have been and continue to be two distinct ways to view the past week and half. The first is to consider the weakness in stocks and the gains ...
Tue, Jan 12 2016, 5:36 PM
Today was interesting in the sense that it challenged some of the assumptions that have been easy to hold so far in 2016, namely: that bond markets ...
Tue, Jan 12 2016, 4:47 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately, but somewhat precipitously lower today. How can the improvement be both moderate and precipitous? A fair questi...
Mon, Jan 11 2016, 7:33 AM
One of my favorite wry market witticisms over the years is a variation of the seminal: " the trend is your friend ." This seemingly obvious, simplist...
Mon, Jan 11 2016, 6:37 PM
As we've been discussing fairly regularly, bond markets have been consistently dragged to better and better levels so far in the new year, by massive ...
Mon, Jan 11 2016, 5:23 PM
Mortgage rates finally pulled back (higher)--albeit slightly--after spending most of the past 2 weeks moving significantly lower. Much of the recen...
Fri, Jan 8 2016, 7:25 AM
Bond markets were able to put some green on the screen again yesterday, but that's not as positive a development as it normally is. We talk sometimes...
Fri, Jan 8 2016, 6:54 PM
Today's NFP data was exactly what we needed to let us know what has been going on so far in 2016. It was so strong that it left no doubt as to how ...
Fri, Jan 8 2016, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today, despite an exceptionally strong jobs report--something that typically sends rates screaming higher. Recently, how...
Thu, Jan 7 2016, 10:21 AM
Bond markets continue defying the odds so far in 2016, with another strong performance in the overnight session (although things may be leveling off...
Thu, Jan 7 2016, 8:26 PM
Bond markets continue being forced to go wherever global equities markets tell them to go. The sheer scale of the selling in China, Europe, and the U...
Thu, Jan 7 2016, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates inched slightly lower today, adding to an already impressive string of improvements in the new year. Rates typically take most of th...
Wed, Jan 6 2016, 9:06 AM
Bond markets are coming out of the overnight session with a pleasantly surprising advantage, and a good reminder that our fate can be influenced by m...
Wed, Jan 6 2016, 6:31 PM
Bond markets had a great day. Right from the start of the overnight session, Asian equities markets were pulling global bond yields and stock price...
Wed, Jan 6 2016, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates moved respectably lower today, nearly making it to the best levels in a month. Whereas the average conventional 30yr fixed quote h...
Tue, Jan 5 2016, 7:33 AM
Bond markets are currently in a sort of disheartening position. The Fed rate hike means that most rates should move higher, even if that happens wi...
Tue, Jan 5 2016, 5:41 PM
Although there were no significant economic reports on tap today, bond markets still faced a few hurdles--more than 20 billion of them, in fact. That...
Tue, Jan 5 2016, 5:12 PM
Mortgage rates were essentially unchanged for many lenders today and just barely higher for others. There were no major sources of inspiration as...
Mon, Jan 4 2016, 7:33 AM
There are several types of traders that play key roles in the bond market. Their motivations and concerns can be surprisingly diverse . For instanc...
Mon, Jan 4 2016, 6:57 PM
It was the first day back from the holiday market delirium and market participants needed a touchstone to kick things off. They found it in the form ...
Mon, Jan 4 2016, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today as financial markets roared back to life after the winter break. In this age of ever-increasing automation and d...
Thu, Dec 31 2015, 8:51 AM
Today is a very exciting day for bond market participants. Most of them are on vacation, or at the very least, in a vacation-like state of mind. The...
Thu, Dec 31 2015, 3:53 PM
Pre-announced bond buying programs are really quite something. They have all ended up being well-telegraphed enough to allow investors to do their o...
Thu, Dec 31 2015, 2:33 PM
Mortgage rates had an interesting year to say the least. After almost universal consensus on a move toward higher rates the first few months of t...
Wed, Dec 30 2015, 9:26 AM
Bond markets--especially Treasuries--had one of their worst days of the month yesterday. Or maybe they didn't... It's hard to say for sure when vo...
Wed, Dec 30 2015, 5:59 PM
The overnight session was much less interesting for Treasuries today (compared to yesterday). In the sense that European bonds weren't pushing yields...
Wed, Dec 30 2015, 4:53 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold steady
today after moving up to the highest levels in more than 5 months
yesterday. Rates had moved close to c...
Tue, Dec 29 2015, 9:14 AM
There continues to be little to observe or conclude in this 'holiday-light' trading environment. While today's data will provide at least something...
Tue, Dec 29 2015, 5:09 PM
Treasuries were significantly weaker today as oil, Europe, and equities all bounced higher. The move was led by a reversal in European bond markets...
Tue, Dec 29 2015, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly highe r today. While it wasn't a big move in the grand scheme of things, rates were already fairly close to their hi...
Mon, Dec 28 2015, 9:15 AM
2015's winter holidays are laid out nicely for financial markets. Both Christmas and New Years Day fall on Fridays. This makes it much easier to pre...
Mon, Dec 28 2015, 7:35 PM
While oil prices did move lower in the overnight session, and while stock markets followed that move, bond markets were a bit more independent. Speci...
Mon, Dec 28 2015, 6:49 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today as underlying bond markets continue to operate in holiday mode. While that can occasionally ...
Thu, Dec 24 2015, 12:43 PM
Almost any article you see today on mortgage rates will say the same thing: "rates are roughly unchanged from last week." Almost every article w...
Thu, Dec 24 2015, 7:32 AM
It's hard to look at the ultra long term correlation between Fed Funds and mortgage rates and NOT be concerned about rates moving higher in 2016. ...
Thu, Dec 24 2015, 1:53 PM
stone silent and slightly positive
no economic motivation
a few traders closed short positions, which helps bonds improve
Today was by far...
Wed, Dec 23 2015, 7:32 AM
It's no mystery that bond markets have been remarkably flat this holiday season. While the absolute range in 10yr yields during that time has been ...
Wed, Dec 23 2015, 5:37 PM
Mortgage rates moved up for the second consecutive day, but in an uncommon way. Mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) are the financial instruments th...
Wed, Dec 23 2015, 5:32 PM
While "whatever it takes to stay sideways" makes it sound like some sort of passionate goal, it's really just a byproduct of the season (or a simple...
Tue, Dec 22 2015, 7:33 AM
Today's chart illustrates the liquidity challenges that crop up at this time of year. The difference between last Friday and yesterday was really nig...
Tue, Dec 22 2015, 7:06 PM
Super light volume and participation
Data was overlooked (on-target GDP and weaker Existing Sales)
Oil and European yields pushed US rates a bit...
Tue, Dec 22 2015, 5:39 PM
Mortgage rates bounced slightly higher today, ending a 4-day winning streak that began with last Wednesday's Fed rate hike. Generally speaking, t...
Mon, Dec 21 2015, 7:33 AM
This week represents an age-old question for financial markets: Will markets be moved more by the results of the data or simply due to the illiquid ...
Mon, Dec 21 2015, 6:44 PM
Mortgage rates continued a trend of small, steady improvements into the new week today. This marks the 4th straight day of a winning streak that ...
Mon, Dec 21 2015, 6:44 PM
Heading into this week, we were well within our right to expect things to be slow for financial markets. Christmas is on Friday. Thursday is a half ...
Fri, Dec 18 2015, 8:30 AM
With the relatively extreme importance of a Fed meeting that fell on December 16th, it was easier to overlook the fact that Christmas is next week . ...
Fri, Dec 18 2015, 5:40 PM
Low volume sets in for holidays
Asian markets shed risk on China/Japan headlines
Another new multi-year low for oil
stocks slide
all of th...
Fri, Dec 18 2015, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates maintained their paradoxical descent following this week's Fed rate hike. The paradox can be accounted-for in several ways, but th...
Thu, Dec 17 2015, 7:33 AM
Yesterday Yellen said that economic expansions don't die of old age . What she meant to say is that the Fed has been thinking a lot about the irrefu...
Thu, Dec 17 2015, 5:45 PM
Today didn't add much to the bigger picture. With the Fed hike so well telegraphed and the weakness over the previous 3 days, we may well have assume...
