Thu, Aug 27 2015, 11:29 AM
Much has been made recently of the surprising lack of response on the part of bond markets to the massive sell-off in stocks. That shoe is now on t...
Thu, Aug 27 2015, 7:32 AM
You'll see more and more of this in the coming days/weeks--the various iterations of "China dumping US Treasuries at an insane pace!" Oh no!
Wait...
Thu, Aug 27 2015, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates were just barely higher today, greatly decreasing the momentum in a now 3-day losing streak. The timing of these movements is impo...
Thu, Aug 27 2015, 4:44 PM
After two days of relatively brutal selling, bond markets finally opted for much less brutal selling. In fact, 10yr yields were in positive territo...
Wed, Aug 26 2015, 11:47 AM
Bigger-picture trading themes are still driving the bond market movement this week. Namely, bonds had been eager to consolidate more than a month of ...
Wed, Aug 26 2015, 7:33 AM
Recent volatility isn't just the product of illiquid summertime trading against the backdrop of surprising announcements from global central banks. M...
Wed, Aug 26 2015, 5:00 PM
Longer duration bonds got hit hard today. Case in point, 30yr bonds are up nearly 13bps while 5's are only up 6bps. The better performances in the...
Wed, Aug 26 2015, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates continued slightly higher today , though they appeared to have second thoughts about that at first. In fact, several lenders made m...
Tue, Aug 25 2015, 11:45 AM
In financial markets, a flight-to-safety generally refers to investors moving out of riskier assets (like stocks, and certain commodities) and into sa...
Tue, Aug 25 2015, 7:32 AM
Given our focus on trends in mortgage rates, we often discuss lenders' intraday reprices. At the moment, however, there is an entirely different kin...
Tue, Aug 25 2015, 5:55 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today as global markets managed to avoid the same sort of panicked volatility seen yesterday. The month-long trend to...
Tue, Aug 25 2015, 5:55 PM
Bond markets finally did what they've wanted to do for several sessions now: square up some of the trading positions from the recent rally. That ral...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 11:40 AM
You know how that Monday morning alarm clock can be the most- well... 'alarming' of the week? It's not that different for the opening bells of variou...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 7:33 AM
Global financial markets are in something of a freefall at the moment. It's not like a pure freefall, but more like one of those wing suit things fro...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 5:37 PM
Mortgage rates did manage to move lower again today. And that move does bring them to the best levels in more than 3 months. But apart from that...
Mon, Aug 24 2015, 5:35 PM
It'll be hard to miss today's news as it related to equities markets. Even the non-financial news will be talking about today's 588 point drop in the...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 12:21 PM
The rest of the global marketplace is harshing the mellow of US bond markets. Treasuries and MBS are wondering what all the fuss is about , having h...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 7:33 AM
The "Death Cross" will be back in the news soon if stocks have many more days like yesterday (that's when the 50-day moving average falls below the ...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 5:12 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower yet again. This extends a winning streak that began on July 14th, making it the longest positive trend in 2...
Fri, Aug 21 2015, 5:12 PM
About 10 days into July's bond market rally, I posed the question: What if 2015 doesn't turn out to be the big bounce ? It started out with the fo...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 7:33 AM
As we discussed in yesterday's close , The general message received from the FOMC Minutes is that the Fed is far more dependent on incoming data ...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 7:01 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today, bringing most lenders to their best levels in more than 3 months. The average conventional 30yr fixed rate ...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 7:01 PM
It was a classic risk-off trade today, albeit with a certain level of exhaustion on the part of US bond markets. "Risk-off" means what it says: inv...
Thu, Aug 20 2015, 1:21 PM
By the time yesterday's FOMC Minutes were out, European and Asian markets were already closed. As such, their overnight reaction was not too surprisi...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 12:59 PM
There have been some pretty decent swings in prices/yields this morning if we're basing our notions of volatility on more recent ranges. For instance...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 7:40 PM
Mortgage rates dropped today --largely in response to the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. The Minutes don't convey any po...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 7:37 PM
I'm not going to launch into a detailed assessment of every passage in today's FOMC Minutes. Instead, I'm going to talk about how the Fed has been ma...
Wed, Aug 19 2015, 7:33 AM
FOMC Minutes today! Time to find out if the Fed even matters or if markets have just been consolidating for their own reasons. Granted, the Fed al...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 12:25 PM
Much like yesterday, today's economic data was far enough from consensus to move markets. Unlike yesterday, the movement was in an unfriendly direc...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 7:33 AM
It's a very interesting time for interest rates in the US. Once again, what had been broad consensus on the long-term direction of rates is turning o...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 5:34 PM
Mortgage rates moved back up today, but continue holding well-inside last week's range. "Movement" is a relative term these days considering it's...
Tue, Aug 18 2015, 5:34 PM
The fun thing about FOMC Minutes releases is that we can never be sure if they're going to cause drama for rates until we see how markets react. Whet...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 7:33 AM
"The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement ...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 5:58 PM
Mortgage rates improved just slightly today, but for most lenders, it was enough to erase the weakness seen last Friday. Behind the move was much...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 5:58 PM
When we talk about "summertime volatility," we're NOT talking about the sorts of big day-to-day swings seen earlier this year. Instead, summertime ...
Mon, Aug 17 2015, 1:01 PM
Overnight and early morning trading was as calm as summertime Mondays tend to be. The day's first data--Empire State Manufacturing--doesn't typically...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 12:21 PM
It's been an uncharacteristically volatile morning for bond markets considering the economic calendar and the day of the week. We've had PPI, Indus...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 7:32 AM
Surprisingly enough, this week's big, volatility-inducing event leaves US bond markets mostly where they were before the big volatility-inducing event...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 4:42 PM
MBS prices are cutting a beautiful (or ugly, in terms of the implication) "Z" on the chart today. Prices were higher to start the morning and moved...
Fri, Aug 14 2015, 2:32 PM
Mortgage rates were just slightly higher on average for a third straight day. Much of this week was spent focusing on the effects of China's deci...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 11:30 AM
So far, the trading day has gone as you would expect it to go if you agreed with the premise in the morning commentary . Namely, without Chinese c...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 7:33 AM
Chinese currency devaluation had quickly grabbed almost every available top news headline by yesterday evening. Yet while the rest of the world was...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 6:47 PM
The headline is the recap. There's not much more to it than that. Ever since China stepped in to stem the tide of currency weakness yesterday aftern...
Thu, Aug 13 2015, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today as the recent volatility in global markets subsided. Treasury yields and mortgage rates both benefited from...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 7:33 AM
Most of this morning's day ahead was written in a speculative manner on July 24th HERE . On that day, I closed with:
Despite all the Fed rhetoric...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 7:15 PM
Let's keep it simple tonight, because it really is pretty simple. It's all about China still--perhaps with an assist from a weak 10yr auction.
Chi...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 5:44 PM
Mortgage rates were lower at first today, but most lenders sent out negative reprices in the afternoon, bringing rates back to unchanged levels. ...
Wed, Aug 12 2015, 1:19 PM
Global markets' courtship phase with China's currency devaluation continued benefiting Treasuries overnight. While there was a slow, steady move back...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 12:59 PM
Treasury yields are at their lowest--and MBS at their highest--levels since early June. For 10yr Treasuries specifically, it wouldn't take more than ...
Tue, Aug 11 2015, 7:33 AM
There are no significant economic reports on the calendar today, and the afternoon's 3yr Treasury auction is the lease relevant of the week. Against ...
