Mon, Nov 9 2015, 7:34 AM
Until last Friday morning, there was still too much disagreement about what might happen at the Fed's December meeting. The debate was definitely lop...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 5:16 PM
Bond markets kept on doing what they've been doing every day so far in November: selling-off. Actually, if you'd like to look at it in slightly more...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates continued pressing into the highest levels since July --themselves the highest levels of the year. In just over a week, the most ...
Mon, Nov 9 2015, 1:37 PM
Last Friday's NFP had immediate implications for financial markets. It meant that there could now be a relatively unanimous agreement on a December r...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 7:33 AM
The inspiration for today's notes comes--as it sometimes does--from something I read and wholeheartedly disagreed with. The piece in question isn't b...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 5:26 PM
Mortgage rates leaped significantly higher today, following an exceptionally strong jobs report. Typically released on the first Friday of every ...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 5:25 PM
Today's jobs data was every bit as strong as the last one was weak. Remember that? A month ago, the thesis was that there were no silver linings i...
Fri, Nov 6 2015, 1:16 PM
Bond markets may well have been able to imagine a situation where NFP came in weak enough for some traders to doubt the Fed's resolve in hiking rates ...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 8:50 AM
For some of you, the current goings-on in markets will make lots of sense and indeed, further analysis can't help but be redundant. If that's you, fe...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 5:24 PM
If you're just looking at the 2-day chart, bond markets did a decent job of pushing back toward positive territory today. That was especially true ...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates rose at a slightly gentler pace today, but that's little consolation considering that any move higher increasingly pushes into the ...
Thu, Nov 5 2015, 1:02 PM
I made a reference to the methodical nature of the recent bond market weakness in t his morning's commentary . Today's trading has simply marked ...
Wed, Nov 4 2015, 8:11 AM
It's a special time for bond markets where the interest of bulls and bears are relatively aligned . Unfortunately for those of us watching from the ...
Wed, Nov 4 2015, 5:24 PM
Bonds began the day in fine shape, but not without a good amount of assumed anxiety ahead of data and Yellen. Still, Treasuries did reasonably well...
Wed, Nov 4 2015, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates maintained their upward momentum today, rising to the highest levels since late September after Janet Yellen confirmed the Fed's ra...
Wed, Nov 4 2015, 1:33 PM
This morning's economic data had moderate impact on bond market trading levels. The two key releases were ADP Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing....
Tue, Nov 3 2015, 8:18 AM
10yr yields hit the highest levels since September 25th yesterday, but that's about the most interesting thing that could be said about the trading ...
Tue, Nov 3 2015, 5:42 PM
Ongoing, firm, measured selling efforts are exactly what we would expect from a market that was caught somewhat off-guard by last week's FOMC Announce...
Tue, Nov 3 2015, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates rose at a quicker pace today, bringing them up to the highest levels in more than a month. October saw several of the more aggress...
Tue, Nov 3 2015, 1:12 PM
Bonds remain under an amount of pressure that is something less than extreme and something much greater than insignificant. MBS continue to outperfor...
Mon, Nov 2 2015, 12:54 PM
Last Friday, bond markets made a small push back against the substantial selling spree on Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, it always stood some...
Mon, Nov 2 2015, 8:26 AM
To reiterate the most important takeaway from last week, the verbiage change in the FOMC Announcement was a big deal . When viewed in conjunction wi...
Mon, Nov 2 2015, 5:40 PM
Bond markets began the day under pressure from decent economic data in Europe and the continuation of generally negative momentum coming off last week...
Mon, Nov 2 2015, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates continued slightly higher today, after hitting 1-month highs late last week. In general, the mortgage rate environment has been un...
Fri, Oct 30 2015, 7:32 AM
One of my favorite little snippets of analytical wisdom (or perhaps it's an out that I leave myself in case I'm wrong... yes, that's probably it) is s...
Fri, Oct 30 2015, 5:03 PM
Bond markets continued to trade resiliently through the close today with the help of month-end buying demand. A small-scale battle played out earli...
Fri, Oct 30 2015, 3:10 PM
Mortgage rates avoided any further damage today after moving to the highest levels in a month yesterday. The past two days made for the sharpest ...
Fri, Oct 30 2015, 1:12 PM
I was going to title this mid-day post something like "uneventfully holding most of yesterday's losses," but I almost fell asleep just writing it. Th...
Thu, Oct 29 2015, 12:59 PM
Yesterday was obviously bad for bond markets. The shift in tone from the Fed caught many market participants off guard. Since the announcement, Fed ...
Thu, Oct 29 2015, 7:32 AM
MBS Live cornerstone Andy Pada reminded me yesterday that I was pretty sure the Fed was going to hike in September. Indeed, I was relatively passiona...
Thu, Oct 29 2015, 5:30 PM
10yr yields have gone from around 2 percent to 2.17% in 2 days thanks to the Fed's sucker punch. Mind you, this would be a lot worse if some of the m...
Thu, Oct 29 2015, 5:01 PM
Mortgage rates continued heading higher at a fairly quick pace today, extending the move that began after yesterday's Fed Announcement. That migh...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 7:32 AM
Today's 'Day Ahead' title is both a rhetorical and literal question. On a literal level, we'll know soon enough, as 2pm brings the latest official po...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 5:44 PM
Bond markets began the day like most recent days: flat and uninspired. That wasn't too hard to forgive considering we may well expect some indecision...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 5:11 PM
Mortgage rates moved quickly lower after today's Fed Announcement. While the Fed was, by no means, expected to hike rates in October, there was a...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 2:05 PM
(additions underlined, deletions struck-through)
For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July...
Wed, Oct 28 2015, 1:24 PM
Bond markets are slightly weaker so far today, but still very much within the recent range ahead of the 2pm Fed Announcement. Unlike many recent exam...
Tue, Oct 27 2015, 8:30 AM
It's rare for the near-term outlook in financial markets to operate in the realm of super high probability. With so much money at stake and with trad...
Tue, Oct 27 2015, 6:31 PM
If we needed any more evidence that the earlier price action had much to do with the spillover from European bond markets, the afternoon trade made it...
Tue, Oct 27 2015, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. Whereas some rate sheets were carbon copies of yesterday's latest ...
Tue, Oct 27 2015, 2:20 PM
There continues to be nothing too much to write home about when it comes to post-NFP October in bond markets. There has been a range of 2.0-2.08 th...
Mon, Oct 26 2015, 9:12 AM
The week's key event is undoubtedly Wednesday's FOMC Announcement, but should markets be getting worked up over the possibility of a change? Of cours...
Mon, Oct 26 2015, 5:35 PM
Bond markets got nostalgic for summertime Mondays today. Despite it being the beginning of a Fed week and falling hard on the heels of a sharper move...
Mon, Oct 26 2015, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today on average despite strength in underlying bond markets. Normally, when bond markets improve, rates dro...
Mon, Oct 26 2015, 2:24 PM
It has been a remarkably quiet day so far during the domestic session. This seems more like the rule than the exception of late. The only instance o...
Fri, Oct 23 2015, 7:33 AM
If you follow bond markets closely enough, you may have noticed a certain measure of reluctance on the part of 10yr yields to break below the 2% barri...
Fri, Oct 23 2015, 5:42 PM
If you caught the Mid-Day , you're up to speed on anything interesting that happened today.
If you didn't, the only interesting thing that happen...
Fri, Oct 23 2015, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, but did a good job of holding their ground considering the volatile market conditions. Rates take thei...
Fri, Oct 23 2015, 1:47 PM
Bond markets are in weaker territory today, more than erasing all of yesterday's gains and taking 10yr yields to the highest levels in 2 weeks. The ...
Thu, Oct 22 2015, 12:22 PM
As expected, this morning's European Central Bank (ECB) Announcement has been a source of volatility for markets, but its effects have varied widely...
