Thu, Jan 2 2014, 11:56 AM
We're once again seeing tradeflows overpower economic data in terms of bond market motivation. Most of this morning's data was stronger than expect...
Thu, Jan 2 2014, 7:00 AM
Today's calendar of economic events includes Jobless Claims, both of the manufacturing PMIs (Markit and ISM), and Construction Spending, making Thursd...
Thu, Jan 2 2014, 4:24 PM
Volume was surprisingly high today, relative to our exceptionally low expectations. Even so, it ranks as one of the lightest days of the year, and ...
Thu, Jan 2 2014, 3:10 PM
Mortgage rates were almost perfectly flat
today. Various lenders were in slightly better or worse shape, but on
average, today's quotes will ...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 12:25 PM
Once you accept the truths in yesterday morning's chart (re-posted below), the rest of 2013 doesn't really matter. To recap:
June 19 was the ...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 7:00 AM
2013 draws to a close today and it will officially break a 20 year trend in bond markets. Since 1993, 10yr yields have returned to the same boundar...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 3:53 PM
On many occasions in 2013, I've referred to weakness as "seemingly inexplicable." This rarely has to do with the weakness defying explanation and mor...
Tue, Dec 31 2013, 2:28 PM
Mortgage rates were
little-changed today, ending the year less than a quarter of a
percentage point away from their highest levels in more than ...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 11:25 AM
So far today, we have a moderate amount of incidental strength to offset the slightly larger amount of incidental weakness last week. Bond markets co...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 9:00 AM
Last
week was brutally slow, punctuated by an early close on Tuesday, the
Christmas holiday on Wednesday and a general absence of volume and
vol...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 4:49 PM
Although nothing too troubling happened today, it's hard to find anything glaringly positive. For instance, even though we have some decent gains o...
Mon, Dec 30 2013, 4:06 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower to begin the week after pulling back just slightly from 3-month highs on Friday. Activity continues to be subdu...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 11:43 AM
First off, any examination of price movement today requires the caveat that none of it has any implication beyond the next few hours. While volume is...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 8:28 AM
There's been such an appallingly small amount of trading activity this week that it doesn't make much sense to discuss or consider market movements ...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 6:05 PM
NOTE : Some readers may have received a glut of
previous MBS Commentary updates from 3:10 - 3:55pm. We're very sorry
for the inconvenience. It s...
Fri, Dec 27 2013, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates recovered modestly in
most cases, falling just below the highest levels in more than 3
months. As has been the case for the entir...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 12:32 PM
MBS continue to bounce along at the same prices that characterized the tight range seen during the last 2-3 hours of Tuesday's session. Fannie 4.0s...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 8:31 AM
In the absence of some sort of watershed event, the only real reason for bond market participants to pay even a small amount of attention between Chri...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 4:52 PM
Fannie 4.0s spent most of the morning just barely in negative
territory and most of the afternoon in the green. All of the above was
contained in...
Thu, Dec 26 2013, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates continued slightly higher into 3-Month Highs today.
Movement in the mortgage market depends on many factors, but one of the
mo...
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 12:20 PM
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 8:29 AM
To at least the same extent as yesterday, today's session calls for
auto-pilot in terms of market-watching. It's not that today's data
isn't nece...
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 2:59 PM
Excruciatingly low holiday volumes magnified the existing downtrend today, bringing MBS prices back to the lower-middle of their downwardly-sloped tra...
Tue, Dec 24 2013, 1:07 PM
Mortgage rates rose to new 3-Month Highs today
as bond market weakness (read: higher rates) is magnified by holiday
trading conditions. In othe...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 12:48 PM
The overnight session was tame for Treasuries, ultimately resulting in opening levels just slightly weaker
than Friday's latest. That said, both ...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 7:07 AM
Of all the holiday weeks of any given year, this one has the biggest
effect on market participation. Trading activity will almost certainly
be ex...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 5:16 PM
MBS stayed inside the micro-range established on Friday afternoon for the entire session . The holiday-inspired quietness was evident from the overn...
Mon, Dec 23 2013, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to
just slightly higher to begin the holiday-shortened week. With the
exception of last Thursday, rates are the h...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 5:24 PM
The lion's share of today's recap is available in the 3:18pm update
below. Nothing about the day's theme changed from then on. In short,
MBS wer...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back today,
recovery the ground they lost in yesterday's move to 3-month highs.
Today then, is the second worst day in 3...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 3:53 AM
Here is a fact about the last 48 hours: on the day of and the day after
the Fed finally announced tapering, the most relevant MBS coupon for
c...
Fri, Dec 20 2013, 1:19 PM
GDP was stronger than expected this morning, yet bond markets are
in stronger territory. Volume in MBS is light, but they're just
following Treas...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 12:55 PM
Check out the chart below for some rationale as to why this morning's
very very high Jobless Claims number failed to help MBS and Treasuries
gain ...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 8:43 PM
Bond markets began the day by extending yesterday's late weakness in somewhat of a panicky fashion. By tapering only
by a small amount and by pro...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 4:22 AM
The Fed tapered yesterday, and bond markets didn't freak out as
much as they might have. Immediately following the announcement, bond
markets wen...
Thu, Dec 19 2013, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today,
reaching levels not seen since the week before the FOMC Announcement in
September. Today's weakness owes...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 12:17 PM
While the most attention-grabbing headline of the morning so far has concerned the largest jump in Housing Starts since 1990,
the sharpest movem...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 9:36 AM
The FOMC Statement due out at 2pm will continue in the Fed's fine
tradition of keeping most of the text unchanged and merely updating key
sections...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 8:50 PM
After almost exactly half a year of discussing the mythical
"Tapering" as a possible outcome of an FOMC Announcement (there were
some grumblings a...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 7:56 AM
Let's skip to the important stuff about today. While there will be a
backlog of three months of Housing Starts data released in the morning,
as w...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 5:32 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today
after the Federal Reserve announced the first reduction in its
purchases of Treasuries and MBS. The reduction...
Wed, Dec 18 2013, 2:05 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggestsOctober indicates that economic activity has continued...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 11:45 AM
Seeing as how today is yet another mid-December day that doesn't
contain the long-awaited FOMC Announcement, it's proving to be just
another incon...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 6:59 AM
The Week Ahead spells out the theme of the week and recaps the market exhaustion leading
up to it. Those themes remain in force until tomorrow's...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 5:32 PM
It's never fun to be wrapping up our assessment of one major economic event with the conclusion that nothing really matters
until the next one. I...
Tue, Dec 17 2013, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates remained at the same level for the 4th consecutive day despite some movement in MBS (the "mortgage-backed securities" that most dir...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 11:56 AM
More than any other day so far in December, today is chock full of that special holiday spirit
that makes for almost inconsequentially light activ...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 7:24 AM
Exhaustion was evident in last week's bond market trading. We discussed that " year-end exhaustion " quite a bit in this post .
To make a long st...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 5:13 PM
MBS are heading out right in line with Friday's latest levels. The day began well, and bond markets even made gains
following the stronger-than-e...
Mon, Dec 16 2013, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged yet again to begin the new week, and thus remain near recent highs with 4.625% the most prevalently quoted rate fo...
