Wed, Jan 14 2026, 3:27 PM
Trading levels in the bond market directly impact the rates that mortgage lenders can offer. This is why rates moved so much lower after last week's n...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 8:58 AM
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PP...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 4:46 PM
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and managed to flip in...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 3:25 PM
According to our chart of MND's mortgage rate index, 30yr fixed rates bottomed at 6.01% yesterday, but that's because the chart logs the day's latest ...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 10:00 AM
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to f...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in s...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 3:44 PM
Mortgage rates are either higher or lower today, depending on the lender in question. Some lenders raised rates on Friday afternoon in response to wea...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 10:29 AM
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's b...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 4:16 PM
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
We may have been looking to the jobs report as this wee...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 1:56 PM
On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday's jobs report, Thursday afternoon's surprise announcement o...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 11:12 AM
On Thursday afternoon with less than an hour left to trade, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backe...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 8:40 AM
The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. ...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 4:27 PM
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness ...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 4:05 PM
Mortgage rates were just a hair higher for the average lender on Thursday. The underlying bond market lost some ground following a stronger weekly Job...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 9:23 AM
US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic....
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 5:02 PM
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
There was certainly the potential for volatility...
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 4:09 PM
Wednesday had the potential to cause bigger volatility for rates due to the confluence of several important economic reports. If that data had been lo...
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 8:45 AM
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields rough...
Tue, Jan 6 2026, 4:25 PM
Ending Near Unchanged Levels After Early Head Fake
Trading volumes confirm that bonds are 100% back in actio...
Tue, Jan 6 2026, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates have been effectively unchanged for 5 straight days now. During that time, the MND 30yr fixed rate index hasn't moved by more than 0.01...
Tue, Jan 6 2026, 9:54 AM
A range trading theme has dominated the bond market since the most recent high yield on December 10th and the most recent low the following day. 100% ...
Mon, Jan 5 2026, 4:19 PM
Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels
While there was some relevant econ data today (ISM Manufacturing), ...
Mon, Jan 5 2026, 3:52 PM
The two days of 2025 with the lowest rates were September 16th and October 28th. Both days happened to be the Tuesdays that preceded Fed rate cuts. On...
Mon, Jan 5 2026, 10:20 AM
By 10am ET, today's trading volume has already surpassed that seen on December 23rd and 26th (both full trading days)--proof positive that the market ...
Fri, Jan 2 2026, 3:52 PM
Modest Incidental Weakness
Despite a bit of incidental selling today, the bond market has survived the winte...
Fri, Jan 2 2026, 3:27 PM
Heading into the week, we knew there was a high bar for any legitimate mortgage rate fireworks. In addition to a dearth of scheduled events with the p...
Fri, Jan 2 2026, 10:47 AM
Friday is merely a day to be watched in case it misbehaves. The econ calendar is essentially empty (just S&P manufacturing PMI), overnight volatility ...
Wed, Dec 31 2025, 1:24 PM
Token Year-End Volatility
Wednesday's shortened session offered more excitement than the first two days of t...
Wed, Dec 31 2025, 1:10 PM
Although Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey (released today) suggested the lowest rates since October 2024, our daily numbers offer a bit more ...
Wed, Dec 31 2025, 8:56 AM
Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Clai...
Tue, Dec 30 2025, 3:23 PM
Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness
Bonds were slightly weaker this morning in a move that looked like it ...
Tue, Dec 30 2025, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates continue operating in an excruciatingly narrow range near their lowest levels of the past few years. Yesterday was the 6th best day of ...
Tue, Dec 30 2025, 10:58 AM
If we turn up the magnification on our market-watching microscopes, it may seem like something important happened in the bond market overnight. 10yr y...
Mon, Dec 29 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger
Although volumes picked up a bit versus Friday, no one would confuse the la...
Mon, Dec 29 2025, 3:31 PM
With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average ...
Mon, Dec 29 2025, 10:26 AM
In addition to this week's holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday), the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential so...
Fri, Dec 26 2025, 3:17 PM
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session
This is essentially placeholder commentary to serve as Frida...
Fri, Dec 26 2025, 3:00 PM
Because mortgage rates are determined by the bond market, a boring market day typically translates to a boring mortgage rate day. But that's not entir...
Fri, Dec 26 2025, 10:58 AM
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liq...
Wed, Dec 24 2025, 1:18 PM
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction
You know it's a holiday with an early closure if we're talking ...
Wed, Dec 24 2025, 1:01 PM
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates, but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bi...
Wed, Dec 24 2025, 9:26 AM
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on t...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 4:43 PM
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, bu...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing t...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 9:54 AM
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/l...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 3:57 PM
Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition
Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and he...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged t...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 10:34 AM
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 4:33 PM
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 4:09 PM
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The ...
