Thu, Mar 6 2025, 3:18 PM
You may see conflicting news about mortgage rates today, depending on where you look. Weekly surveys, such as Freddie Mac's, are showing a fairly big ...
Thu, Mar 6 2025, 11:40 AM
There are a few moving pieces to the bond market narrative on Thursday. The general backdrop consists of yield curve steepening (fancy words that mea...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 3:47 PM
2nd Straight Day of Losses. Blame Data or Stocks?
We already saw the end of the bond market's 9 day winning ...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 3:12 PM
It's been a great couple of weeks for mortgage rates, largely mirroring the terrible couple of weeks for the stock market. A combination of downbeat e...
Wed, Mar 5 2025, 12:10 PM
Wednesday marks the return of market-moving economic data after Tuesday's lull. ADP Employment was up first and it came out much weaker than expected...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 4:19 PM
Winning Streak Finally Ends, But it Could Have Been Worse
Take yesterday out of the equation and today's clo...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 3:31 PM
Although mortgage rates are based on bonds, and although bonds are constantly on the move throughout the day, mortgage lenders prefer to set the day's...
Tue, Mar 4 2025, 11:26 AM
While much of the recent improvement in the bond market can be tied to various economic reports, there's been more than a normal amount of improvement...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 4:03 PM
Bonds Start Week Off With a Bang
After a weaker overnight session, bonds bounced back swiftly after this mor...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 3:31 PM
Mortgage rates faced a very small threat of a very small increase this morning. The underlying bond market was in weaker territory to start the day an...
Mon, Mar 3 2025, 12:07 PM
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory with most of the losses seen right at the start of the overnight session in Asia. With it being th...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 4:16 PM
Bonds End The Week and The Month at Best Levels
Both MBS and Treasuries were easily at their best levels of ...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 3:40 PM
After more than a week of consistent and meaningful improvement, mortgage rates finally showed us that they were at least capable of moving in the oth...
Fri, Feb 28 2025, 12:06 PM
It's no secret that we don't view the PCE inflation data as being anywhere remotely as big of a market mover as CPI. Today's trading is adding anothe...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 4:14 PM
Trying to Shake Off Overnight Weakness After Mixed Bag of Data
Bonds came into the domestic session at sligh...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 3:24 PM
Stop the presses! Mortgage rates actually moved HIGHER today! While it's the first time we've been able to say such things since last Tuesday, the dam...
Thu, Feb 27 2025, 12:30 PM
As of yesterday afternoon, bonds could seemingly do no wrong this week. Every opportunity for traders to circle the wagons and push back against the ...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 4:28 PM
Bonds Can Seemingly Do No Wrong
Another day, another example of bonds ignoring the potentially negative cues...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 3:41 PM
Mortgage rates are directly connected to the bond market, and bonds can seemingly do no wrong over the past week. Specifically, demand for bonds has ...
Wed, Feb 26 2025, 12:01 PM
While the economic calendar may look a little busy today, there are, once again, no big ticket market movers in play. The last time data had an impac...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 4:33 PM
Impressively Calm Rally Continues Amid General Growth Concerns
In the absence of the typical motivations req...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 4:01 PM
Over the past 4 business days, the average top tier mortgage rate has fallen by 0.22%. While that may seem like a small number, consider that mortgage...
Tue, Feb 25 2025, 11:36 AM
They day begins with 10yr yields down more than 10bps and trading under 4.30% at times. MBS are up 3/8ths with 5.5 UMBS coupons getting close to par. ...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 5:05 PM
Bonds Improved Throughout The Day, With and Without Stock Market Losses
Based on the movement at the end of ...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 4:32 PM
Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a...
Mon, Feb 24 2025, 10:33 AM
After a strong finish last week, there was some natural risk that short-covering and position squaring added to the gains, thus increasing the chance ...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 5:00 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week
Bonds benefited from a one-two punch of economic data and stock market weak...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 3:22 PM
Back on December 18th, rates began the day fairly close to where they ended the previous day. In the afternoon, rates surged sharply higher following ...
Fri, Feb 21 2025, 11:57 AM
MBS are very close to their February 5th levels, which were the best since the morning of December 18th before the Fed announcement (and dot plot) cau...
Thu, Feb 20 2025, 4:50 PM
Very Low Volatility After Early Morning Rally
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight sessio...
Thu, Feb 20 2025, 4:00 PM
It was a fairly decent day for mortgage rates with the average lender returning to the lowest levels in just over 2 months. The improvement followed e...
Thu, Feb 20 2025, 12:00 PM
There's an interesting little case study in this morning's market movement. Bonds had been sideway to very slightly weaker overnight, but began to ral...
Wed, Feb 19 2025, 4:30 PM
Deep Dive on Today's Misunderstood Fed Comments
Today's only potential big ticket event was the release of t...
Wed, Feb 19 2025, 3:42 PM
It was almost a mildly interesting day as rates started out slightly higher. To be fair, even that would not have been too interesting because the mo...
Wed, Feb 19 2025, 10:34 AM
Bonds extended yesterday's selling streak in the overnight session, but not in an alarming or serious way. Momentum reversed at 9am without any clear ...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 4:52 PM
Bonds Give Up Friday's Gains
Bond market volume was a little better than half of its recent average today--s...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 4:24 PM
Mortgage lenders were unable to update their rates yesterday as the bond market was closed for the Presidents Day holiday. Three day weekends can occ...
Tue, Feb 18 2025, 11:33 AM
Traders have done a reasonably good job of making it back to the office after the 3-day weekend. Volumes are almost in line with last Tuesday (also a ...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 5:12 PM
Paradoxical Rally Gets Logical After Retail Sales
If yesterday's PPI-driven rally was a paradox, today's con...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 3:20 PM
The final two days of the present week weren't on many bingo cards as of Wednesday afternoon. At the time, rates were jumping higher in response to i...
Fri, Feb 14 2025, 11:53 AM
What a difference the past two mornings have made for a bond market that was seemingly on the ropes on Wednesday. After yesterday's paradoxical (thoug...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 4:36 PM
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Bond Rally?
PPI may not be as heavy a hitter as CPI on average, but one c...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 3:21 PM
Mortgage rates jumped quickly higher yesterday following the higher inflation reading in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Now today, rates have complet...
Thu, Feb 13 2025, 9:07 AM
This morning's econ data included weekly jobless claims, which came in roughly in line with forecasts, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which was a ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 4:50 PM
CPI Came in HOT and Bonds Reacted Logically
There's remarkably little else to observe beyond this morning's ...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 3:36 PM
Today's mortgage rate movement is very straightforward. Unfortunately, it's also marked by a straight line toward higher levels--in this case, the hi...
Wed, Feb 12 2025, 11:25 AM
We know that bonds take a majority of their economic data cues from two reports: NFP and CPI. We knew that today's CPI was critically important in com...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 3:59 PM
What to Expect From Wednesday's Inflation Data
Bonds lost ground overnight in sympathy with European bonds. ...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 3:14 PM
Any recap of financial news headlines will likely mention Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony today. Some efforts could even be made to link t...
Tue, Feb 11 2025, 11:10 AM
With Tokyo closed for a holiday, overnight Treasury trading was limited to futures markets until 2am ET. Yields opened about 1bp higher in Europe and...
