Thu, Jan 2 2020, 9:09 AM
Bonds will be fully open today and tomorrow, but we're not quite back to what would be considered "normal trading" yet. There is no significant data ...
Tue, Dec 31 2019, 9:07 AM
Bonds close early today for New Year's Eve and are fully closed tomorrow for New Year's Day. There is no significant data on tap today although trade-...
Mon, Dec 30 2019, 4:33 PM
Bond market holiday inertia would have been happy to continue were it not for a relative smattering of drama in European bond markets overnight. In f...
Mon, Dec 30 2019, 10:14 AM
For the second straight week, the bond market will lose a day and a half of trading to holiday market closures. That largely implies the same effects ...
Fri, Dec 27 2019, 9:08 AM
Bonds are technically fully open today, but holiday trading themes remain. That means volume and liquidity will remain light, and trading momentum ca...
Thu, Dec 26 2019, 8:35 AM
Bond markets are fully open again today after 2 and a half days of for Christmas. While things could be a bit business than earlier this week, volume ...
Tue, Dec 24 2019, 1:12 PM
Bond trading was every bit as uneventful as it should have been to start the day. Volumes were as light as they get and weakness was modest at worst....
Tue, Dec 24 2019, 8:24 AM
Bond markets will be closed for Christmas tomorrow and only open for a half day today. Volume and liquidity will be mere shadows of their normal selve...
Mon, Dec 23 2019, 8:49 AM
Bond markets will be closed for Christmas on Wednesday and only open for a half day on Tuesday. Even on the remaining days of the week, volume and li...
Fri, Dec 20 2019, 9:41 AM
For all practical purposes, today is the last trading day of the year. In fact, based on volumes so far, today may actually be the first day of the w...
Thu, Dec 19 2019, 4:46 PM
First thing's first: putting too much time/thought into the writing or reading of bond market analysis this time of year isn't really necessary. If th...
Thu, Dec 19 2019, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates were somewhat higher again today--the 4th day in a row that we've been forced to observe such mildly unpleasant things. Technically, th...
Thu, Dec 19 2019, 8:39 AM
My 12-year old emails me from the next room when he's doing homework sometimes. It only happens a few times a year and only when it's really serious....
Wed, Dec 18 2019, 5:00 PM
Frustrating day for market watchers today as bonds suffered moderate losses despite a complete absence of any compelling market movers. These sorts o...
Wed, Dec 18 2019, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today, but remained well within the range that's been intact for at least a month now. During that time, the av...
Wed, Dec 18 2019, 9:18 AM
With trading activity rapidly winding down and with the end of the year rapidly approaching, rather than send you a forced rehash of the same old comm...
Tue, Dec 17 2019, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates didn't do much today, and that's the sort of thing that could get to be all too familiar as we head into the end of the year. With the ...
Tue, Dec 17 2019, 9:35 AM
Based on volumes, liquidity, and most importantly, the calendar itself, there's a compelling case to be made for closing the book on 2019 as a trading...
Mon, Dec 16 2019, 5:40 PM
Friday was a somewhat glorious day for bond markets, but perhaps only because Thursday was so terrible. Both of those sessions were completely driven...
Mon, Dec 16 2019, 4:59 PM
Mortgage rates were nicely lower on Friday, though not quite as nicely as we would hope or expect. Why is that? Simply put, the bond market (which und...
Mon, Dec 16 2019, 9:14 AM
Have you ever worried about the negative repercussions of some anticipated event in your life only to find out they weren't so bad? For the bond mark...
Fri, Dec 13 2019, 5:10 PM
Bonds were leading off in a slightly friendly direction during the overnight session, largely because we hadn't really heard from China with respect t...
Fri, Dec 13 2019, 4:34 PM
Mortgage rates were somewhat distressed , to say the least, after yesterday's various news stories pertaining to the US/China trade deal. For a variet...
Fri, Dec 13 2019, 11:05 AM
The litany of updates/alerts listed below effectively serves to frame the launch sequence for today's trading. If you don't care to wade through the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2019, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates jumped quickly higher today following a series of headlines/tweets regarding the probability of a US/China trade deal ahead of Sunday's...
Thu, Dec 12 2019, 9:15 AM
Yesterday brought a nice little rally in response to a surprisingly rate-friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell. The counterpoint to that co...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 4:55 PM
We moved from NFP not mattering (and then causing a surprisingly big intraday stir) to the Fed undergoing quite a similar routine. Granted, in the bi...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates improved today following the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The Fed doesn't set mortgag...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September October indicates that the labor market remains strong and that econo...
Wed, Dec 11 2019, 8:32 AM
Last week, I stunned the world by claiming that NFP (the nonfarm payrolls component of the big jobs report) "didn't matter." OK, maybe not the whole ...
Tue, Dec 10 2019, 5:15 PM
Last week saw an apparently important jobs report ATTEMPT to have a lasting impact on financial markets only for the move to be completely erased by t...
Tue, Dec 10 2019, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved up modestly today as bond markets weakened in response to trade headlines. This week's key consideration on the trade front is wh...
Tue, Dec 10 2019, 8:33 AM
In the grand scheme of things, today will likely be another placeholder of a day unless some unexpected (and fairly significant) trade war update happ...
Mon, Dec 9 2019, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates reacted somewhat harshly to an incredibly strong jobs report last Friday. At the time, I noted that such a jobs report would typically ...
Mon, Dec 9 2019, 9:07 AM
It's been almost exactly 3 months since the quick rate spike in early September. That, of course, followed an impressive run to the lowest rates in m...
Fri, Dec 6 2019, 3:30 PM
This morning's commentary was titled "NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)." Apparently NFP didn't like being called out because it did...
Fri, Dec 6 2019, 1:45 PM
Mortgage rates were pushed higher for the 3rd day in a row following an incredibly strong jobs report. For decades, if you were to ask anyone with a r...
Fri, Dec 6 2019, 8:31 AM
First Friday of the month, and thus time for the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Also known simply as "the jobs report," no other piece of economic data...
Thu, Dec 5 2019, 5:41 PM
After the little bout of whipsaw volatility of the past 3 trading sessions, it will be a tall order for even the mighty NFP to move markets much tom...
Thu, Dec 5 2019, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates have seen a fair amount of volatility so far this week, dropping quickly on Tuesday and moving in the opposite direction since then. Be...
Thu, Dec 5 2019, 9:48 AM
Bonds took Trump at his word in the wee hours of Tuesday morning with respect to waiting until Nov 2020 (or later) to finalize a trade deal with China...
Wed, Dec 4 2019, 4:28 PM
Bonds sold off clearly and somewhat abruptly following a Bloomberg article on the trade negotiations being in better shape than markets might assume b...
Wed, Dec 4 2019, 3:29 PM
Mortgage rates dropped sharply yesterday after having risen to the highest levels in 2 weeks the day before. Yesterday's culprit was trade war related...
Wed, Dec 4 2019, 8:28 AM
Trade headlines rocked markets yesterday, making for the biggest single-day bond rally since early August--even after the gains moderated in the after...
Tue, Dec 3 2019, 5:36 PM
One short day after sending somewhat alarming signals about a move back up toward the top of the recent range, the bond market bounced back with a ven...
Tue, Dec 3 2019, 4:38 PM
Mortgage rates were up to the highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday, but that was then and this is now. In the wee hours of the morning, trade-related h...
Tue, Dec 3 2019, 9:03 AM
Yesterday saw bonds jump up to the highest yields in more than 2 weeks. Culprits were diverse, including stronger overseas econ data and new trading ...
Mon, Dec 2 2019, 4:11 PM
As the bond market shook off the holiday weekend lethargy and metaphorically (and literally) returned to the office, it was met with an immediate bar...
Mon, Dec 2 2019, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates increased moderately to begin the new week/month and had been increasing in general during the previous week. The net effect is some le...
Mon, Dec 2 2019, 10:10 AM
Welcome to the last few trading weeks of 2019--3 or them to be precise. After that, the Christmas and New Year holidays will mean we can't trust the ...
