Fri, May 29 2020, 5:50 PM
Mortgage rates staged a nice little comeback today, moving back toward the all-time lows seen late last week. Mortgage rates are determined primarily ...
Fri, May 29 2020, 8:52 AM
The next Fed announcement is 1.5 weeks away and so it's time to start ramping up expectations for the details of the Fed's official QE announcement. ...
Thu, May 28 2020, 4:38 PM
It's Thursday, and thus time once again for Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. This is the longest-running and most widely-cited snapshot of m...
Thu, May 28 2020, 9:14 AM
The market reaction to coronavirus made a mess of the relationship between Treasuries and MBS (and between MBS and mortgage rates for that matter). T...
Wed, May 27 2020, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates managed to stay sideways today after beginning the week with a move higher yesterday. This is a victory all things considered. Rates ta...
Wed, May 27 2020, 9:17 AM
Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fair...
Tue, May 26 2020, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates hit new all-time lows last week. In fact, for many lenders, records were broken on more than one day. That raised the risk of a bounce ...
Tue, May 26 2020, 9:07 AM
No need to overcomplicate the current narrative: the overall financial market is attempting to balance the reopening of the economy with the risk of C...
Fri, May 22 2020, 3:31 PM
There's no shortage of bad news when it comes to the economy and the housing market. But that's no surprise considering the circumstances. The sheer s...
Fri, May 22 2020, 9:37 AM
Treasuries started out stronger after overnight drama between China and Hong Kong caused a "risk-off" trade (i.e. sell stocks, buy bonds). MBS contin...
Thu, May 21 2020, 3:50 PM
Mortgage rates were mostly steady today for most lenders. Those who changed generally did so in a friendly direction. Either way, that means today's r...
Thu, May 21 2020, 9:03 AM
Treasuries held onto yesterday's gains in the overnight session and are starting the day in slightly better shape (MBS are roughly unchanged). This m...
Wed, May 20 2020, 5:53 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today. Whereas yesterday's improvements arrived in choppy fashion only after many lenders quoted higher rates in the morning...
Wed, May 20 2020, 9:50 AM
I've been mentioning MBS outperformance and underperformance quite a bit recently, but what do these terms really mean and why do we care?
First off...
Tue, May 19 2020, 4:50 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed this morning, depending on the lender. The more responsive lenders had already bumped rates higher yesterday in response to ...
Tue, May 19 2020, 9:17 AM
Yesterday was pretty rough for bond markets as 10yr yields rose the better part of 10bps in fairly short order. It was the worst day of selling in ...
Mon, May 18 2020, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates hit all-time lows on Friday, based on the average rate for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed loan scenario. At that time, I raised the...
Mon, May 18 2020, 9:05 AM
Bond markets will close early this Friday and will remain fully closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. 3.5-day weekends can often see a shi...
Fri, May 15 2020, 4:34 PM
As of yesterday, we knew mortgage rates were already in line with their lowest levels ever . It wouldn't have taken much to set the record today and i...
Fri, May 15 2020, 9:17 AM
As recently as April 21st, the fate of the mortgage market was still highly uncertain and that uncertainty was readily apparent in the ridiculously w...
Thu, May 14 2020, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates move lower again today. Combined with yesterday's drop, the improvement has been significant for top tier rate quotes in the lower rang...
Thu, May 14 2020, 8:58 AM
The recent trading range has been reinforced after a strong show of support in this week's Treasury auctions. Treasuries were under more pressure hea...
Wed, May 13 2020, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates improved today, on average, but things can vary quite a bit depending on the lender. Several lenders are back in line with their lowest...
Wed, May 13 2020, 9:00 AM
In ancient financial market times (let's say any time before 2009), a massive economic shock resulted in a pervasive move lower in both stock prices a...
Tue, May 12 2020, 8:40 AM
2.5 UMBS coupons last traded at 103.5 (103-16) yesterday. This morning, they are down to 103.31 (103-11), which is roughly a 20bp drop. But the char...
Mon, May 11 2020, 7:12 PM
Mortgage rates began the day slightly lower compared to last Friday, but that didn't last long . Underlying bond markets were under pressure from the ...
Mon, May 11 2020, 8:51 AM
Bonds lost ground last week, overall, with 10yr yields rising the better part of 10bps. MBS lost ground as well, but not UMBS 2.0 coupons. These are...
Fri, May 8 2020, 6:59 PM
Mortgage rates ended the week on a low note (in a good way), falling in line with their best recent levels. This put some lenders in line with April 3...
Fri, May 8 2020, 8:32 AM
The Employment Situation (the big jobs report out today) is the single most important piece of economic data on any given month--at least it normally ...
Thu, May 7 2020, 8:55 AM
Despite an improvement in COVID numbers, relative optimism in stocks, an ongoing glut of corporate bond issuance, and freshly reinforced realizations ...
Wed, May 6 2020, 5:20 PM
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher this week, but not enough to worry about too terribly much. Most lenders are still in the mid-to-low 3% range and...
Wed, May 6 2020, 10:44 AM
When someone asks a salty old bond market person why rates are doing what they'd doing, they might get a seemingly dismissive reply: "supply and deman...
Tue, May 5 2020, 9:38 AM
Despite being in a narrow range in the bigger picture, 10yr Treasury yields have generally been moving moderately higher since April 21st. MBS have m...
Mon, May 4 2020, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved off their recent lows to start the new week, but only slightly. That keeps the average lender very close to the lowest rates in r...
Mon, May 4 2020, 10:28 AM
The Federal Reserve's capacity and willingness to engage in aggressive easing measures is often described as a "bazooka." This likens it to an imprec...
Fri, May 1 2020, 10:46 AM
In the day ahead, bonds will digest manufacturing PMI data, both from IHS-Markit and ISM. While these PMIs are typically big market movers--potential...
Thu, Apr 30 2020, 5:42 PM
Mortgage rates moved down again today, bringing the average lender to their best levels since the 2nd week of March. Some lenders are quoting their lo...
Thu, Apr 30 2020, 8:47 AM
January, February, and especially March were wild months for bond market volatility. Coronavirus was increasingly responsible for that volatility dur...
Wed, Apr 29 2020, 10:42 AM
This morning, GDP came out at -4.8%, the lowest reading since Q1, 2009. The Fed announcement and press conference will be out this afternoon. But th...
Tue, Apr 28 2020, 6:24 PM
Mortgage rates moved down nicely last week and have either maintained or improved upon those levels this week. The catch is that the good times aren't...
Tue, Apr 28 2020, 9:24 AM
Trillions of dollars of stimulus on the Fiscal side and many additional trillions of liquidity on the monetary side of the equation are helping stocks...
Mon, Apr 27 2020, 9:16 AM
After weeks and weeks spent discussing the impacts on growth surrounding coronavirus, we're only now getting to the very first release of GDP for Q1. ...
Fri, Apr 24 2020, 11:34 AM
Given the size and scope of the unemployment/forbearance issue, mortgage investors have been rightfully concerned about the timeliness of payments, an...
Thu, Apr 23 2020, 6:23 PM
Let's get caveats out of the way upfront. No conversation about mortgage rates would be complete without a reminder that some lenders are very far rem...
Thu, Apr 23 2020, 10:03 AM
I'm making an executive decision. It's time to simplify the discussion even more than we already have when it comes to what's freaking the mortgage...
Wed, Apr 22 2020, 1:24 PM
The initial House draft of the CARES Act included a provision that Fed and Treasury would "extend credit to mortgage servicers that have liquidity nee...
Wed, Apr 22 2020, 9:36 AM
While there may be a good amount of drama and suspense when it comes to watching coronavirus take its toll on the economy, there's no mystery. This ...
Tue, Apr 21 2020, 9:22 AM
Given that yields are in an extremely low range with no past precedent, it's easy to glance at the chart, shrug one's shoulders, and conclude "oh well...
Mon, Apr 20 2020, 5:56 PM
While the industry has come to terms with recent challenges in terms of day-to-day volatility, mortgage rates remain higher than they otherwise would ...
Mon, Apr 20 2020, 9:53 AM
This week is relatively limited in terms of economic data. We will get our first look at big home sales reports for March (both "New" and "Existing")...
