Mon, Oct 7 2019, 5:30 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower every week for the past 3 weeks. They covered a respectable amount of ground during that time and ultimately erased most of...
Mon, Oct 7 2019, 9:24 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market rallied strongly. Weaker economic data--especially the two ISM reports--led the way, ensuring the middle 3 d...
Fri, Oct 4 2019, 4:24 PM
The bureau of labor statistics called and mailed about 60k households a little less than a month ago to ask them about their jobs. Only 3.5% of the w...
Fri, Oct 4 2019, 3:26 PM
Mortgage rates fell nicely this week with modest to moderate gains throughout. As I noted yesterday, this runs counter to the week's average mortgage ...
Fri, Oct 4 2019, 8:29 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market rallied impressively following an exceptionally weak ISM services report. That was the 2nd of the two ISM pur...
Thu, Oct 3 2019, 5:25 PM
Today's ISM services data (technically "non-manufacturing") was one of the week's two biggest reports apart from tomorrow's jobs data. Like it's manu...
Thu, Oct 3 2019, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates are much lower today compared to last Thursday, or any other day last week. Despite that fact, major news outlets--even those dedicated...
Thu, Oct 3 2019, 9:21 AM
In the day just passed, bonds extended a faster-paced rally that began on Tuesday following the ISM Manufacturing data. It wouldn't be fair to say ...
Wed, Oct 2 2019, 5:23 PM
The bond market had another solid day today, although that wasn't necessarily destined to be the case from the start. Yields were slightly higher in ...
Wed, Oct 2 2019, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates are historically quite low and they managed to continue lower today . This is in addition to a steady string of improvements that began...
Wed, Oct 2 2019, 9:28 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market improved by an amount that would be considered fairly strong compared to the previous session's closing levels...
Tue, Oct 1 2019, 5:25 PM
Today was fairly straightforward by the time the 10am ISM Manufacturing data came out. It was significantly weaker than expected (worst since 2009) a...
Tue, Oct 1 2019, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates were already at their lowest levels in a few weeks by yesterday afternoon--a journey that largely consisted of baby steps. There have b...
Tue, Oct 1 2019, 8:27 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market got off to a slow and stable start for the week. There was modest overnight weakness that carried over into t...
Mon, Sep 30 2019, 5:45 PM
Bonds were slightly weaker in the overnight session. European bonds set the tone early, potentially in response to Draghi comments on the need for ...
Mon, Sep 30 2019, 4:35 PM
Mortgage rate movement was fairly uneventful last week. The bond market (which is most directly responsible for driving day-to-day changes in mortgage...
Mon, Sep 30 2019, 9:53 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market committed to a perfectly sideways consolidation pattern after having moved down from the highest yields in mo...
Fri, Sep 27 2019, 8:46 PM
There's never a way to be 100% sure that a consolidation trend will continue to guide the highs and lows in the bond market for any certain amount of ...
Fri, Sep 27 2019, 10:23 AM
In the day just passed, bonds did their best to make it seem as if they were paying attention to various headlines and events without actually moving ...
Thu, Sep 26 2019, 5:00 PM
It's hard to say whether yesterday's heavy selling in the bond market was acting alone or whether it was in response to the heavy buying seen on Tuesd...
Thu, Sep 26 2019, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today--a welcome development after yesterday's move higher. In the bigger picture, rates have done an acceptable job of mov...
Thu, Sep 26 2019, 11:31 AM
It's been plain to see in recent months that MBS have had a very tough time keeping pace with the drop in Treasury yields. That's been especially tru...
Wed, Sep 25 2019, 6:12 PM
First, let's talk about how big today's sell-off was. In terms of 10yr yields, it fully erased the past 2 days of gains and some of the improvement...
Wed, Sep 25 2019, 5:23 PM
Mortgage rates bounced higher today, after making it to the best levels in more than a week yesterday afternoon. Markets responded to a strong home sa...
Wed, Sep 25 2019, 9:29 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market managed to improve at a fairly decent clip, but the gains were much easier to come by for Treasuries vs MBS. ...
Tue, Sep 24 2019, 5:38 PM
Today was a victory for the bond market in general, but a relatively hollow one for MBS. Gains were modest for both Treasuries and MBS at first, ...
Tue, Sep 24 2019, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold on to the improvements seen yesterday. This was far from a certainty yesterday afternoon as the underlying bond market ...
Tue, Sep 24 2019, 9:35 AM
In the day just passed, bonds started out strong with help from exceptionally weak economic data in Europe. German manufacturing, in particular, cont...
Mon, Sep 23 2019, 6:19 PM
Today was largely the story of troublingly weak econ data prompting an rally to the best levels of the day for bond markets. The biggest move came i...
Mon, Sep 23 2019, 5:41 PM
Mortgage rates added to last week's friendly rebound with their best single-day drop in more than a month today. Weak economic data in Europe and tepi...
Mon, Sep 23 2019, 10:11 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market underwent a nice correction after the previous week pushed yields higher at the fastest pace in years. To pu...
Fri, Sep 20 2019, 6:15 PM
Last week brought the pain. It was the worst single week for the bond market (if we count MBS) since 2013. Although this week won't break any record...
Fri, Sep 20 2019, 5:59 PM
What a difference a week makes! At the end of last week, things were pretty grim, with mortgage rates having just seen their worst single week since 2...
Fri, Sep 20 2019, 10:14 AM
In the day just passed, bonds trading was exceptionally calm in the wake of Wednesday's Fed day. As I mentioned in the recap, it was one of the least...
Thu, Sep 19 2019, 5:45 PM
Relative to the expectation for yesterday's Fed events to cause volatility, the movement we've seen in the bond market has been fairly pitiful in re...
Thu, Sep 19 2019, 4:23 PM
Here is exactly what yesterday's Fed rate cut did to mortgage rates: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! No Fed rate cut (or hike) will EVER do ANYTHING directly to m...
Thu, Sep 19 2019, 9:16 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market finally got a chance to sink its teeth into the much-anticipated Fed announcement/forecasts/press conference. ...
Wed, Sep 18 2019, 5:49 PM
As far as Fed days go--especially the kind where we get updated economic projections--today's example was pretty damn uneventful. These things happen...
Wed, Sep 18 2019, 4:54 PM
One of the greatest potential sources of confusion for prospective mortgage borrowers is the relationship between the Fed and mortgage rates. While th...
Wed, Sep 18 2019, 2:02 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June July indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic acti...
Wed, Sep 18 2019, 9:09 AM
In the day just passed, the bond market managed to add a 2nd day to a friendly correction--a small counterattack against the much larger corrective se...
Tue, Sep 17 2019, 6:24 PM
Today saw the narrowest trading range of any day so far this month and by far the calmest day since the big September selling spree began. Drama came...
Tue, Sep 17 2019, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates have risen rather abruptly from their long term lows 2 weeks ago and are now at the highest levels in more than a month. Fortunately, t...
Tue, Sep 17 2019, 9:27 AM
In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September. 10yr yields d...
Mon, Sep 16 2019, 5:26 PM
Today's key development was over-the-weekend news of drone strikes on Saudi oil assets. Iran is getting the blame, but Trump says he's not in a rush ...
Mon, Sep 16 2019, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates closed out their worst week since 2016 on Friday as the bond market underwent a classic correction after its best month since 2011. The...
Mon, Sep 16 2019, 9:55 AM
In the week just passed, the bond market sold off at the fastest pace since the June 2013 taper tantrum. That's a relatively impressive feat at first...
Fri, Sep 13 2019, 3:17 PM
Mortgage rates were already having their worst week since 2016 as of yesterday afternoon. Rather than help to heal some of the damage, today's bond ma...
Fri, Sep 13 2019, 8:36 AM
In the day just passed, bonds got our hopes up early with an initially positive reaction to the ECB announcement. We were even in the green for most ...
Thu, Sep 12 2019, 6:18 PM
10yr yields hit 1.80% today. Using the power of the MBS Live search feature, I compiled the following list to put 1.80% in context:
"I'd be looking...
