Wed, Sep 6 2023, 4:21 PM
Straightforward sell-off
Bonds managed to begin the day sideways to slightly stronger, although the strength...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 10:59 AM
It's not as if the bond market magically knew that today's non-manufacturing PMIs would come in hotter than expected, but they were clearly trading de...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 4:48 PM
Issuance and Holiday Hangover Hitting Bonds
Bonds were decently weaker on the first day back after Labor Day...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 12:24 PM
After a frustrating selling spree last Friday, bonds are starting the new week with a bit more selling. Much like Friday, justifications are not as s...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 3:47 PM
What's Up With Friday's Sell-Off?
Bonds lost ground today and it definitely wasn't as simple as traders havi...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 11:50 AM
Bonds rallied out of the gate after the jobs report came out this morning. Perhaps it was the fact that 187k isn't much higher than the 170k forecast...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:35 PM
Pssst. Some People Think NFP Could be Even Weaker Than Forecast
This morning's economic data came out slight...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 11:20 AM
Another morning, another set of economic reports with the power to move markets. Today's examples included jobless claims coming in at 228 vs 235k, c...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 4:38 PM
Bond Rally a Victim of Its Own Success
This morning's economic data was bond-friendly, but not as unequivoca...
Wed, Aug 30 2023, 12:25 PM
On a week fraught with important economic data, the results continue coming in on the weaker side of forecasts and bonds continue to like it. While y...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 4:20 PM
Is The Top In?
No one had much to say or think about JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) over...
Tue, Aug 29 2023, 11:07 AM
While bonds may have started the day drifting into slightly weaker territory, losses have quickly shifted to gains in the wake of this morning's big t...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 3:35 PM
Fairly Uneventful But Perhaps Not For Long
The week began with a perfectly normal example of a summertime Mo...
Mon, Aug 28 2023, 11:25 AM
The "data dependent" waiting game is nothing new, even if there have been some changes in how the market has interpreted data. Specifically, the days...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 3:11 PM
Absolutely No Surprises From Powell
What a letdown, but also what an unsurprising speech from Fed Chair Powe...
Fri, Aug 25 2023, 1:13 PM
With the mortgage industry in the throes of its worst era since the GFC (Great Financial Crisis), comparisons are inevitable. If you didn't live thr...
Thu, Aug 24 2023, 4:16 PM
Bonds Opt to Avoid Exuberance Ahead of Powell
After Wednesday's big rally ended with bonds near their best l...
Thu, Aug 24 2023, 11:55 AM
With the morning economic data having come and gone with little fanfare, the most significant role today can fill is as a placeholder. It offers the ...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 4:51 PM
Snowball Rally, But Does it Change Anything?
After more than 2 weeks of relentless selling that took yields ...
Wed, Aug 23 2023, 11:35 AM
Any time bonds are as oversold as they were yesterday, there's a better chance of a bigger corrective rally when a reason to rally finally presents it...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 4:36 PM
Absence of Additional Weakness
Today's trading session doesn't really qualify as a strong one for the bond m...
Tue, Aug 22 2023, 12:33 PM
Recall the title of last Friday's recap: "This is How They Get Ya." There is no "they," and no one is really trying to deceive you. Rather, the inte...
Mon, Aug 21 2023, 3:25 PM
Another Day in The New, Higher Rate Reality
"Higher for longer," they said. And they weren't kidding. Afte...
Mon, Aug 21 2023, 12:13 PM
The new week begins with bond yields at the highest levels since 2007 in what has been a broadly linear uptrend since late July. Up until that point,...
Fri, Aug 18 2023, 4:49 PM
This is How They Get Ya
Bonds ended up rallying a bit to close out the week, sorta. 10yr yields were 3bps l...
Fri, Aug 18 2023, 10:51 AM
Like the crowd that cheers when their team scores late in a game that they have no hope of winning, it's hard not to feel some sense of relief or opti...
Thu, Aug 17 2023, 3:37 PM
Bonds Came Here to Chew Gum and Sell Off, And They're All Out of Gum
There comes a time in protracted bond m...
Thu, Aug 17 2023, 1:36 PM
The GFC (great financial crisis) shaped and reshaped the worldview of any market-watcher that lived through it. The 70s/80s were increasingly seen as...
Wed, Aug 16 2023, 4:28 PM
OK Rates... Explain Yourself!
Today's Fed Minutes were uneventful with a volume spike that didn't even eclip...
Wed, Aug 16 2023, 12:35 PM
Not to be confused with an actual Fed Day Announcement, today's Fed Minutes simply offers a more detailed account of the meeting that took place 3 wee...
Tue, Aug 15 2023, 3:34 PM
Paradoxical Data Reaction, But it Didn't Last
Yesterday we examined last week's paradoxical bond sell-off in...
Tue, Aug 15 2023, 12:10 PM
One disclaimer is in order before anything else: Retail Sales data is not a consistent top tier market mover--especially in the past few years. Somet...
Mon, Aug 14 2023, 3:15 PM
Rates Are Changing The Rules in The Middle of The Game
You know the part in the movie with the plot twist wh...
Mon, Aug 14 2023, 12:53 PM
This week and next week are two of the most affected by summertime trading conditions (lower volume, lighter liquidity, seemingly random directional m...
Fri, Aug 11 2023, 3:46 PM
Bonds Can't Catch a Break
This week was supposed to be all about CPI confirming or rejecting the notion that...
Fri, Aug 11 2023, 12:17 PM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) has a sub-par record as a market mover for bonds when compared to CPI and other inflation metrics. But markets have be...
Thu, Aug 10 2023, 4:47 PM
Big Mystery Sell-Off, Not CPI or 30yr Auction or Fed Speakers
Today was CPI day and bonds lost a lot of grou...
Thu, Aug 10 2023, 11:06 AM
This is the catch when it comes to economic data with high potential to cause a big reaction in bonds: the key word is "potential." It takes a big be...
Wed, Aug 9 2023, 12:06 PM
Today is shaping up to be much less interesting than yesterday. Bonds didn't move nearly as much in the overnight session and began the day in roughl...
Tue, Aug 8 2023, 4:52 PM
MBS Underperform as Treasuries Benefit From Flight to Safety
When the market is sensitive to potential chang...
Tue, Aug 8 2023, 11:29 AM
Remember "global growth concerns?" That's the phrase that underpinned the rate reversal from long term highs in late 2018. It's definitely not reliv...
Mon, Aug 7 2023, 4:08 PM
Uneventful Monday as Traders Keep Options Open
Bonds traders are keeping options open, both literally and fi...
Mon, Aug 7 2023, 10:42 AM
Bonds gave back a bit less than half of Friday's gains in the overnight session with most of the losses seen after the start of European trading. Tha...
Fri, Aug 4 2023, 5:15 PM
Tame Jobs Data Opens Door For Bonds to Stabilize
Rates were arguably oversold heading into today's jobs repo...
Fri, Aug 4 2023, 10:07 AM
With rates pushing up to super long term highs by yesterday afternoon, it may not have taken too much of a miss in today's jobs data for bonds to rall...
Thu, Aug 3 2023, 4:02 PM
Snowball Sell-Off Ahead of Jobs Report
The bond market isn't necessarily expecting the jobs report to come i...
Thu, Aug 3 2023, 11:16 AM
There's something rotten in the state of the bond market. After the early July CPI-driven rally seemed to put a ceiling on the range, there have been...
Wed, Aug 2 2023, 3:47 PM
Yields Briefly Hit 8 Month Highs
Bond yields spiked to their highest levels in more than 8 months this morni...
Wed, Aug 2 2023, 12:36 PM
Moments after bonds closed yesterday, Fitch downgraded the credit rating for the U.S. government. Few would disagree that the political criticism (by...
Tue, Aug 1 2023, 5:27 PM
Explaining Today's Inexplicable Weakness
If the bond market is well understood to be heavily "data dependent...
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