Thu, Mar 28 2024, 12:24 PM
While the future can't ever be known, this week's base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and b...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:55 PM
Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support
With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend,...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:35 AM
There are no significant economic data on tap today. The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it's a bit of a st...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 4:14 PM
Mixed Performance. Data Hurt. Auction Helped. Little Changed
In the bigger picture, bonds found resistance b...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 12:16 PM
Welcome to day 4 of our unofficial 9 day weekend with limited data and volatility ahead of an actual 3.5 day weekend. Is data truly limited if we hav...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:18 PM
Weaker Start, But MBS Outperform
The week got off to a weaker start with most of the losses seen during the ...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:01 AM
Monday marks the start of a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday) and the beginning of a week that will conclude...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:19 PM
9 Day Weekend For The Bond Market
While it's not technically a 9 day weekend for the bond market, it might a...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 12:11 PM
In the current regime of bond market movement, traders have been running from one side of the field to the other in an attempt to get in on the action...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:50 PM
Econ Data Keeps Bonds in Check
Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 12:40 PM
The global trading community digested yesterday's Fed events in a relatively constructive way overnight. Combined with lackluster manufacturing PMIs ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:32 PM
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Dovish Fed
With so much apparently at stake heading into today's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain remai...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 10:49 AM
The Fed finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable situation where the market has witnessed several successive months of inflation data that refuse...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:26 PM
Ceiling Survives But Wednesday is The Test
Any trading day without a big ticket economic report or Fed annou...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:15 PM
While there are several ways in which the trading environment of the past few years is more exciting than normal, it comes with one notable caveat: on...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Technical Test
For all that we've talked about the 4.32% technical level and ...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 9:43 AM
Ceilings, floors, pivot points, etc. Technical levels don't predict the future, but they can provide context for trends. In some cases, they can ser...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:42 PM
Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week
For a short while this morning, it looked as if bonds would break up and ...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 9:47 AM
This morning's line-up of econ data is certainly not the most relevant to the bond market, but the NY Fed Manufacturing index has registered an impact...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:40 PM
Data Calling Fed's Confidence Into Question
As the new year began, the late 2023 assumption of multiple rate...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 11:46 AM
Apart from Tuesday (CPI day), today is this week's next biggest deal in terms of scheduled economic data. The trifecta included Jobless Claims, PPI, ...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:23 PM
Calmer Day of Losses. Data Resumes on Thursday
Without any notable econ data on tap, bonds were left to thei...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 11:27 AM
Bonds are off to a weaker start today, but not in a major way and not due to any interesting developments. In general, there was some optimism headin...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 4:03 PM
Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness
Heading into the 4pm hour, MBS are only down 6 ticks (.19) ...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 9:51 AM
It's been a weird morning so far with core CPI coming in at 0.4 vs 0.3 forecast--something that should have certainly sent bonds scrambling into weake...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:18 PM
Super High Potential Energy Surrounding Tuesday's Data
Monday proved to be the quintessential placeholder tr...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 10:06 AM
February wasn't a fun month for rates, largely thanks to a surprise uptick in core inflation. On that point, both CPI and PCE agreed, but many analys...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:26 PM
All in All a Pretty Logical Week
It seems weird to consider, but Friday's trading--and indeed, the week's tr...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 1:34 PM
Today's jobs report has proven to be one of the most extreme examples of competing narratives in the past year or so. The headline number wasn't too ...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:53 PM
Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge
10yr yields are now decisively below the levels seen BEFORE the...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 12:29 PM
Apart from Monday, which had no meaningful econ data, today was the best candidate for an uneventful day on what is otherwise an important data week. ...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:51 PM
Uneventful Gains Despite Apparent Market Movers
It was an interesting day for the bond market. Yields drop...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 9:18 AM
It's understandably nerve-wracking for fans of low rates to see a congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell on the calendar. Granted, some of tho...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 4:32 PM
Gains Before and After Data
Today's big to-do was the ISM Non-Manufacturing data at 10am ET. Of the two ISM...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 10:39 AM
Yields spiked in the first half of February as the jobs report and CPI both suggested a stubbornly resilient economy and inflation outlook. That was ...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:27 PM
Sleepy Start to What May Be an Exciting Week
Every now and then the bond market makes a case for a 4 day wor...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 11:09 AM
We've been looking forward to the first week of March since the Feb 13th CPI report because this is the first time since then that we'll see a top tie...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 4:56 PM
Bonds Leading Off in a Friendly Direction
With ISM Manufacturing, Friday brought the only other reasonably i...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 12:46 PM
We haven't talked enough about ISM Manufacturing this week because Thursday's PCE data was the first report in more than 2 weeks that mattered. Thus,...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:50 PM
It Took a Village (Of Econ Data)
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied after the 8:30am econ d...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 10:44 AM
Today's most hotly anticipated data was undoubtedly PCE inflation for January. In fact, this is the report that became the subject of our focus and a...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 4:05 PM
Small Scale Volatility But Very Sideways Overall
There were a few instances of volatility in the bond market...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 12:05 PM
The bond market may be data dependent (it totally is!), but not just any data will do. You'd be forgiven for thinking that things like "GDP" and "Cor...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 4:03 PM
Weird Reaction to Durable Goods, But Generally Slow and Sideways
The economic data drought finally began to ...
Tue, Feb 27 2024, 12:28 PM
With apologies to those who follow closely enough to know how frequently this notion has been recycled recently, bonds continue grinding sideways as i...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 3:55 PM
Auctions Caused Modest Weakness, But Mostly in Advance
As the bond market looks at the 5yr Treasury auction ...
Mon, Feb 26 2024, 10:07 AM
While it may not prove to be the most relevant market mover of the week, the upcoming Treasury auction cycle is at least in the running. This particu...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 3:28 PM
Strong Friday For Bonds Helps Keep Sideways Vibes Intact
Friday ended up being surprisingly strong for the b...
Fri, Feb 23 2024, 11:44 AM
It was destined to be a mostly boring, sideways week (to whatever extent "destiny" actually has any predictive value). Perhaps it's more fair to say ...
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