Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:41 PM
There's a reason we haven't been mentioning this week's release of the Fed Minutes as we lament the absence of significant scheduled market movers. S...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:39 PM
Uneventful Start. Decent Gains After 20yr Bond Auction
The holiday-shortened trading week is off to exactly ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 11:01 AM
After last week's big CPI-driven rally, yields settled into an increasingly calm, sideways trend marked by resistance at the post-CPI lows. It would ...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:30 PM
Solid End to a Solid Week
With essentially nothing meaningful on the economic or event calendar, the bond ma...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 11:42 AM
Our recent analytical thesis runs the risk of being all dressed up with nowhere to go between now and the first full week of December. As such, thing...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 3:26 PM
Yesterday's Losses Easily Erased By Data
Wednesday's bond market losses rained on Tuesday's post-CPI parade....
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 12:04 PM
With yesterday's Retail Sales data in the rearview, the base case between now and the first week of December is for more moderate volatility in a rela...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Happy Thanksgiving From The Bond Market. See You in December
After Tuesday's big CPI reaction, Wednesday bro...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 12:10 PM
If you had to script out the most likely course of events after Tuesday's big post-CPI bond rally, the safest expectation would be for a token pull-ba...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 4:05 PM
Another Big November Rally After CPI
There's something about CPI releases in November. Last year's example ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 11:06 AM
Ever since the jobs report on November 3rd, today's CPI report was in focus as the next major fundamental focal point for the bond market. As 10yr yi...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:51 PM
MBS Outperform Ahead of CPI
Monday had very little to offer in terms of calendar events or meaningful headl...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Last week ended up being a sideways dud in terms of the bond market's willingness to do anything new after the previous week's big rally. That said, ...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:20 PM
All Eyes on CPI
After last Friday's jobs report, there wasn't anything on the event calendar that demanded o...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 1:59 PM
Coming off of last week's big rally, the present week looked like a long shot to offer any exciting developments. Now in the rearview, the lack of exc...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 4:44 PM
30yr Auction Draws a Line Under The Range
The day began with nominal, inconsequential weakness in bonds. 10...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 12:13 PM
There's a tendency, among bond watching loan originators, to focus a bit too much on whatever is happening on the present day in the bond market. Hig...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 4:38 PM
Well-Received 10yr Auction Helps Validate New Range
With the present week lacking in terms of scheduled data...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 11:08 AM
Bonds surged lower in yield last week on a combination of economic data, Fed comments, and the Treasury issuance update. While the move definitely dr...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 5:16 PM
Back to Breaking Even on The Week
Bonds rallied overnight thanks to weaker econ data in Europe and managed t...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 12:45 PM
Every now and then European markets do favors for the US bond market narrative. They can also detract, but today is not one of those days. Weaker ov...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 4:51 PM
Bonds Feeling Defensive Ahead of Auctions?
The title of today's recap gets a question mark because it's fair...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 11:13 AM
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly weaker territory. There are not compelling motivations for the move in terms of data, events, or headline...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 4:53 PM
If Data Stays in This Week's Range, The Highs Are In
Friday's weak jobs report and strong bond market reacti...
Fri, Nov 3 2023, 12:20 PM
There was a lot riding on this morning's jobs report. It was in an ideal position to cast a vote on this week's bullish correction. A big beat was l...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 3:53 PM
Tough Afternoon For Lock vs Float Decisions
Even yesterday, we were already trying to reconcile the size of ...
Thu, Nov 2 2023, 11:20 AM
Bonds improved significantly yesterday after the Treasury refunding announcement, economic data, and Fed press conference. Most reports attribute the...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 5:30 PM
Powell + Data = Big Bond Rally
When traders/analysts look back to see what was on the calendar when 10yr Tre...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding expanded at a solid pace. strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have ...
Wed, Nov 1 2023, 12:31 PM
Today's the day where economic data and events ramp up significantly. Not only do we have more events on the calendar, but they're also increasingly ...
Tue, Oct 31 2023, 3:20 PM
Placeholder Ahead of Fed and Big Ticket Data
The first two days of the week have had the least to offer in t...
Tue, Oct 31 2023, 9:46 AM
The US bond market has a borderline preoccupation with certain changes in Japanese monetary policy. This is arguably justified at times. Previous tw...
Mon, Oct 30 2023, 3:23 PM
First Hurdle Cleared. More to Come
On what has the potential to be a momentous week, the bond market has cle...
Mon, Oct 30 2023, 9:38 AM
The uncommon combination of events and the market movement potential of this week is hard to overstate. Each layer is important in and of itself, but ...
Fri, Oct 27 2023, 4:15 PM
Boring, Flat Friday Leaves Focus Where it Should Be
It's hard to overstate just how much potential the upcom...
Fri, Oct 27 2023, 12:35 PM
Things have been eventful this week, to say the least, especially when considering the level of volatility relative to the underlying market movers in...
Thu, Oct 26 2023, 4:34 PM
Exciting Times and a Range-Bound Rally
Next week is one of the most exciting and potentially significant wee...
Thu, Oct 26 2023, 12:04 PM
Bonds are in an ongoing consolidation after 10yr yields hit 5% last week. The consolidation cuts both ways and today is a good cut. Yields hit 4.99%...
Wed, Oct 25 2023, 5:58 PM
It's Not So Bad if You Forget The Past 3 Days
Bonds had a somewhat encouraging rally over the past 3 busines...
Wed, Oct 25 2023, 11:51 AM
Tuesday brought a dose of encouragement for the bond market. It was the third straight day of gains--an uncommon feat in recent months, to be sure! T...
Tue, Oct 24 2023, 4:15 PM
Encouraged, But Not Convinced
It is certainly encouraging to see a modestly positive day for the bond market...
Tue, Oct 24 2023, 11:53 AM
When the big corner is eventually turned for rates, it will have to start somewhere, so let's talk about whether the current bond rally could be the f...
Mon, Oct 23 2023, 4:50 PM
Big Rally, But Not Big Enough to Demand an Interesting Explanation
It is unfortunate that, due to timing and...
Thu, Oct 19 2023, 11:39 AM
This morning is off to what could potentially be described as a "weird" start. If it's not weird, it's at least interesting. Why weird? Bonds ralli...
Wed, Oct 18 2023, 4:45 PM
Just Another "Worst Day Since..." Type of Day
In a rising rate environment where long term boundaries have r...
Tue, Oct 17 2023, 4:04 PM
Strong Retail Sales Data and Logical Consequences
Today's morning commentary may as well be the recap. Very...
Tue, Oct 17 2023, 11:46 AM
In addition to looking at economic data, the Fed also gets an earful from their "contacts" in the community. One would have to assume that those cont...
Fri, Oct 13 2023, 4:25 PM
Decent Recovery But MBS Underperform
On Thursday, 10yr yields came close to spiking 20bps, trough to peak, i...
Fri, Oct 13 2023, 12:45 PM
Bonds drifted gradually but consistently intro stronger overnight. We could point to a few events and a few pieces of data (softer Chinese inflation,...
Thu, Oct 12 2023, 4:13 PM
Bonds Snap Back to Reality on Higher Core Services CPI
Even before this week's rally began, we knew to be on...
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