Wed, Dec 13 2023, 10:55 AM
The Fed has a way to convey where it sees the Fed Funds Rate in the coming years via the dot plot. The bond market has a way to make its own bets via...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 4:26 PM
Dots, Dots, Dots, Dots
What's the most important ingredient in tomorrow's Fed announcement and related event...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 9:45 AM
The relationship between data and market movement is both brutally simple and frustratingly nuanced depending on the circumstances. More often than n...
Mon, Dec 11 2023, 3:40 PM
Bonds Breathe Sigh of Relief After Auctions. CPI Up Next
It's been quite a while since we've dusted off the ...
Mon, Dec 11 2023, 9:59 AM
Little has changed since last Friday other than yields being a few bps higher. The bond market still has to digest a condensed auction calendar over ...
Fri, Dec 8 2023, 5:07 PM
Surprisingly Resilient Despite Stronger NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)--the headline component of the big jobs r...
Fri, Dec 8 2023, 11:39 AM
Bond bulls have been on parade since November 1st and especially since November 14th (CPI). Since then, we haven't seen any real threats to the linea...
Thu, Dec 7 2023, 4:56 PM
How Big Could Friday's Jobs Report Be?
Thursday ended up being a very calm day relative to most of the recen...
Thu, Dec 7 2023, 11:59 AM
Thursday didn't exactly have any high risk events from a data standpoint with weekly Jobless Claims being the most notable report. Claims came in very...
Wed, Dec 6 2023, 4:44 PM
More Gains. Are Bonds Overbought?
The combination of friendly economic data, dovish comments from the Bank o...
Wed, Dec 6 2023, 12:11 PM
Another day, another set of economic reports that offer no objections to the steady bond market rally of the past few weeks. Yesterday's heavy liftin...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 4:12 PM
Logical Response to Data. Bonds Not Looking Nervous at 3 month lows
We knew that today's JOLTS and ISM repor...
Tue, Dec 5 2023, 12:43 PM
JOLTS, the job openings and labor turnover survey, used to be a very forgettable report. On a scale of potential market movers, we've always assigned...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 3:29 PM
A Bit of Meaningless Weakness. More Important Stuff On Deck
Bonds lost ground to start the new week, but not...
Mon, Dec 4 2023, 11:45 AM
Bond rallies = lower rates. We like bond rallies. But when rates fall too quickly or consistently, it can be too much of a good thing. That's a phe...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 5:04 PM
Another Surprisingly Eager Bond Rally Suggests Caution and Opportunity
Two days ago, the focus of the analys...
Fri, Dec 1 2023, 12:28 PM
With it being the first trading day of a new month and a Friday, it's hard to determine the extent to which traders planned to buy bonds today providi...
Thu, Nov 30 2023, 11:45 AM
It would have been a lot to ask for bonds to continue rallying without any major justification after hitting 4.25% yesterday and after 50bp rally over...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 3:14 PM
Shifting Trends, Shifting Strategies?
Another day of modest to moderate gains, but this time without the sam...
Wed, Nov 29 2023, 12:00 PM
The "base case" of a narrower, more sideways range between CPI and NFP is increasingly being disproven by a more bullish reality. Especially after th...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:38 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Willing to Rally on Fed Comments
The only notable market mover for bonds was a rather bas...
Tue, Nov 28 2023, 3:24 PM
The tedium that is the 2nd half of November continues to underwhelm. Specifically, we're in a lull between CPI 2 weeks ago and Nonfarm Payrolls next w...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 3:20 PM
Back Near Best Levels After Solid Auction Results
For those who'd been watching bond markets on Friday's hal...
Mon, Nov 27 2023, 9:35 AM
The end of November has been true to form with several examples of directional movement despite an absence of motivation. Last Friday was perhaps the...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 3:35 PM
Inconsequentially Weaker After Data; We'll Be Back on Monday
While Friday will technically be a half day for...
Wed, Nov 22 2023, 12:06 PM
Up until yesterday, we would have placed the lower boundary of the prevailing range somewhere between the 4.40% lows from last Friday and the 4.43% pi...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 3:23 PM
Modest, Decent Gains, But Not Many Surprises
The bond market continues mostly adhering to expectations for n...
Tue, Nov 21 2023, 12:41 PM
There's a reason we haven't been mentioning this week's release of the Fed Minutes as we lament the absence of significant scheduled market movers. S...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 3:39 PM
Uneventful Start. Decent Gains After 20yr Bond Auction
The holiday-shortened trading week is off to exactly ...
Mon, Nov 20 2023, 11:01 AM
After last week's big CPI-driven rally, yields settled into an increasingly calm, sideways trend marked by resistance at the post-CPI lows. It would ...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 4:30 PM
Solid End to a Solid Week
With essentially nothing meaningful on the economic or event calendar, the bond ma...
Fri, Nov 17 2023, 11:42 AM
Our recent analytical thesis runs the risk of being all dressed up with nowhere to go between now and the first full week of December. As such, thing...
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 3:26 PM
Yesterday's Losses Easily Erased By Data
Wednesday's bond market losses rained on Tuesday's post-CPI parade....
Thu, Nov 16 2023, 12:04 PM
With yesterday's Retail Sales data in the rearview, the base case between now and the first week of December is for more moderate volatility in a rela...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 4:17 PM
Happy Thanksgiving From The Bond Market. See You in December
After Tuesday's big CPI reaction, Wednesday bro...
Wed, Nov 15 2023, 12:10 PM
If you had to script out the most likely course of events after Tuesday's big post-CPI bond rally, the safest expectation would be for a token pull-ba...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 4:05 PM
Another Big November Rally After CPI
There's something about CPI releases in November. Last year's example ...
Tue, Nov 14 2023, 11:06 AM
Ever since the jobs report on November 3rd, today's CPI report was in focus as the next major fundamental focal point for the bond market. As 10yr yi...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 4:51 PM
MBS Outperform Ahead of CPI
Monday had very little to offer in terms of calendar events or meaningful headl...
Mon, Nov 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Last week ended up being a sideways dud in terms of the bond market's willingness to do anything new after the previous week's big rally. That said, ...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 4:20 PM
All Eyes on CPI
After last Friday's jobs report, there wasn't anything on the event calendar that demanded o...
Fri, Nov 10 2023, 1:59 PM
Coming off of last week's big rally, the present week looked like a long shot to offer any exciting developments. Now in the rearview, the lack of exc...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 4:44 PM
30yr Auction Draws a Line Under The Range
The day began with nominal, inconsequential weakness in bonds. 10...
Thu, Nov 9 2023, 12:13 PM
There's a tendency, among bond watching loan originators, to focus a bit too much on whatever is happening on the present day in the bond market. Hig...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 4:38 PM
Well-Received 10yr Auction Helps Validate New Range
With the present week lacking in terms of scheduled data...
Wed, Nov 8 2023, 11:08 AM
Bonds surged lower in yield last week on a combination of economic data, Fed comments, and the Treasury issuance update. While the move definitely dr...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 5:16 PM
Back to Breaking Even on The Week
Bonds rallied overnight thanks to weaker econ data in Europe and managed t...
Tue, Nov 7 2023, 12:45 PM
Every now and then European markets do favors for the US bond market narrative. They can also detract, but today is not one of those days. Weaker ov...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 4:51 PM
Bonds Feeling Defensive Ahead of Auctions?
The title of today's recap gets a question mark because it's fair...
Mon, Nov 6 2023, 11:13 AM
Bonds are starting the new week in slightly weaker territory. There are not compelling motivations for the move in terms of data, events, or headline...
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