Mon, Apr 12 2010, 2:18 PM
Though there are several ways to approach the strength in bonds this afternoon, leading candidates include upcoming Federal Reserve speakers who have ...
Fri, Apr 9 2010, 10:24 AM
This modest retracement is not out of the ordinary and definitely not unwelcome by MBS valuations. I hope I was able to provide enough justification t...
Fri, Apr 9 2010, 1:33 PM
Couple significant technical events in the past hour... The charts make it look as if the market reacted to a specific news or econ item, but so far,...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 12:49 PM
The 10 yr note yield has risen to its highest yield of the day amidst position squaring. The 3.625% coupon bearing 10 year note is currently -0-03 at ...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 9:49 AM
You know the story. We forecast a test of 4.00% back in December. That test happened in extremely illiquid quarter-end conditions after a run of bett...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 4:21 PM
4.5's down 2 ticks on the day to 100-00. 10yr note up about 2.3bps at 3.886. Stocks back at 1187 in S&P. Bernanke speaks later this evening. Limited...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 1:56 PM
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $13 billion 30 year bonds. Four of the last five long bond auctions have been at this size, so the market is a...
Wed, Apr 7 2010, 12:36 PM
Things are either going to get really great, really quick for MBS, or insanely volatile. EXPECT THE VOLATILITY! THESE ARE BIG TIMES IN THE BOND MARK...
Wed, Apr 7 2010, 6:37 PM
As far as locking and floating, I'd probably take certain deals off the table if I promised some higher power that I would do so if they could just he...
Wed, Apr 7 2010, 1:46 PM
"Rate Sheet Influential" Treasuries and MBS are rallying after a very strong 10 year Treasury note auction. Reprices for the better are likely...
Tue, Apr 6 2010, 12:15 PM
Stage 1 of the Fed's exit looks to be behind us with only minimal damage done. Rising mortgage rates have been more a function of higher benchmark yie...
Tue, Apr 6 2010, 10:01 AM
Overseas rates traders came back to work today to find much cheaper bond prices and higher "risk free" yields thus, "rate sheet influential Treasuries...
Tue, Apr 6 2010, 3:08 PM
Overall, continued cautiousness is obvious. Much is still uncertain from their point of view, but there is plenty of weakness to warrant an exceptiona...
Tue, Apr 6 2010, 1:23 PM
It's going to FEEL uncomfortable to float "on the edge" deals that you would prefer to float until tomorrow but IF we see any reprices, they won't be ...
Mon, Apr 5 2010, 11:53 AM
Morning data was great for stock bulls but bad for bonds. After the date, the S&P hit new 2010 highs at 1,187, the 10 year Treasury note yield continu...
Mon, Apr 5 2010, 2:51 PM
The bad news is that bonds are still at or near their weakest levels of the day, but the good news is that some semblance of support looks to be in ef...
Fri, Apr 2 2010, 11:23 AM
Fri, Apr 2 2010, 9:22 AM
There's ammo for both bulls and bears in this data. Revisions to previous data add 40,000 more jobs than previously reported. Census workers spend mo...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 12:36 PM
The Treasury Department has announced the terms of next week's auction cycle. In total, $82 billion in notes and bonds will be sold. This will raise a...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 10:05 AM
While the benchmark TSY market is apathetically "so so" today, the scene is not pretty in "rate sheet influential" mortgage-land. The FN 4.5 is -0-10...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 6:19 PM
With the charts relatively boring, here's a quasi-op-ed, quasi-"perspective amidst the chaos" from us to you. If you'd rather skip that, there are s...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 3:10 PM
Fannie 4.5's at 99-29. 10yr Tsy yield at 3.865. Couple bouts of volatility earlier have given way to a narrow range for MBS. 4.5's are well off the lo...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 11:16 AM
The Fannie 4.5 MBS coupon has lost all positive progress that was picked up following a much weaker than forecast ADP print at 815am. The FN 4.5 is cu...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 9:39 AM
Nonfarm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Goods producing businesses are still the weakest ...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 4:43 PM
I discussed a few technical levels last night. Specifically, that 100-16, 100-10, and 100-07 were good levels to keep an eye on. That call turned ou...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 1:38 PM
Mortgage market participants must now face the reality of a life without the supportive, flow balancing, volatility calming bid of the Federal Reserve...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 10:36 AM
With Consumer Confidence out, the bleeding in bonds seems to have stopped for the moment. A bit of a paradox at first glance since the data beat expe...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 9:33 AM
Using your microscope, you might be able to see the hint of a top forming on the treasury yield chart. hopefully, that materializes, which would help...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 6:36 PM
Major lock decisions deal more with Friday than anything. From there, anything you know you're going to lock before NFP, the closer MBS are to 100-16...
Tue, Mar 30 2010, 3:03 PM
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 12:28 PM
Plain and Simple: the long end of the yield curve is the biggest loser today. This is most likely a function of low trading volume and a thinly att...
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 10:07 AM
10s must break 3.85% and re-enter the 3.57 to 3.85% range for us to see further positive rebound rally progress. Still watching and waiting...
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 6:49 PM
Mon, Mar 29 2010, 3:37 PM
We're hearing quite a few questions about census jobs distorting Friday's NFP number. Here's the thing though... If we already know that temporary c...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 12:40 PM
I have nothing but good news for mortgages. "Rate sheet influential" MBS prices are higher, current coupon yield spreads are tighter, and REPRICES FOR...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 9:56 AM
It was encouraging to see overnight bargain buying again, especially after three terrible turnouts from indirect bidders at this week's round of Treas...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 4:32 PM
Bonds are still more likely to move over 3.85 in the longer term, but there is enough room for the possibility that we could catch a break in the shor...
Fri, Mar 26 2010, 2:19 PM
Strength in treasuries and consequently MBS today has led to widespread reprices for the better. But if we get a 3pm mark around 3.85, it could lead ...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 12:31 PM
he bond market is losing steam ahead of the 1pm bid cut off for $32 billion 7 year notes. The 10 year Treasury note is trading at 3.89%. This pushed t...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 10:19 AM
Yesterday was brutal. The long end of the rates market got caught with its pants down. Short swap positions in the long end of the curve capitulated,...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 7:09 PM
If we forget that MBS lost about a point yesterday and that treasuries rose more than 10bps in yield, today is mild by comparison. MBS were unchanged...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 2:47 PM
It's been one heck of a roller coaster watching the various levels of 10yr yields on a tick by tick view. Things looked quite bad for a time when the...
Thu, Mar 25 2010, 1:23 PM
The auction did not go well. Not a huge surprise given the events that unfolded yesterday. Rates are higher after the auction. Between then and now, n...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 12:39 PM
Ahead of the 5 year note auction...the 2 year and 5 year TSY note yield are both trading at two month highs.The 10 year TSY note is at a one month yie...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 11:12 AM
Reuters polled primary dealers on their outlook for interest rates over the next three, six, and twelve months. 6 of 30 dealers think the 10 year note...
Wed, Mar 24 2010, 10:50 AM
After two days of a boring, low volume driven sideways tight range trading, rates volume has skyrocketed into this sell off with the majority of sell ...
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