Fri, Apr 30 2010, 6:52 PM
Month long rallies in and of themselves are sometimes sufficient cause for the momentum to take a break, either to merely "catch it's breath" or worse...
Fri, Apr 30 2010, 2:22 PM
Take a careful look at the charts and how good your pricing is, and consider the trend channel in treasuries is now closer to indicating a move higher...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 10:43 AM
There is a ton of noise surrounding the marketplace at the moment, and it's coming mostly out of the EU. I don't see the trading environment acting a...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 6:36 PM
While a sell off may be in the cards, the recent movements, trends, and volume would put the onus for that more on the the strength or weakness of the...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 3:33 PM
Fannie 4.5's up 7 ticks at 100-21. 10's down a few bps from 7yr auction time at 1pm from 3.75 to 3.73. Stocks pausing at resistance, while bonds catch...
Thu, Apr 29 2010, 2:17 PM
Same story as yesterday, just more pronounced. Strong demand from the right investors at the right yield. Dealers didn't have to do much heavy liftin...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 12:59 PM
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 10:25 AM
So does this stock selloff stick or is it viewed simply as an opportunity to buy the S&P below 1200? I say rip and run traders! Unless you think the w...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 5:19 PM
If you believe in the continuation of the existing trends/ranges, you understand we might be dealing with a probe to slightly higher yields, but conti...
Wed, Apr 28 2010, 2:03 PM
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $42 billion 5 year notes. This was the 6th consecutive offering at this size and likely one of the last times ...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 12:23 PM
Looks like the market is favoring the flight to safety side of the "conflicting view" story I described in the OPEN. The stock lever has engaged in a...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 10:14 AM
In order for the 10 yr note to see much more positive progress, we need 2s to fall below 1.00% again. I doubt that will happen before the FOMC release...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 5:42 PM
It's hard to know how all this will play out in coming days, but I do think it's significant that we saw the highest volume in over a month a day BEFO...
Tue, Apr 27 2010, 2:25 PM
Direct bidders offset a continued reduction in indirect demand while primary dealers mopped up the remaining mess. It always makes me nervous when dea...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 12:44 PM
As far as either breaking higher (in yield) over 3.84 or lower past 3.75 (resistance not shown on chart), a couple key events will be informative thi...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 9:02 AM
Main focus today will be on 10yr treasury futures charts for a couple reasons. First of all, treasuries (and especially futures) lend themselves exce...
Mon, Apr 26 2010, 5:10 PM
When we say "looking for opportunities to lock," it's to suggest that we keep our eyes open for competitive rate sheets that benefit from the relative...
Fri, Apr 23 2010, 9:21 AM
After touching our long standing 3.71% recovery rally target yesterday, long-term bullish trading technicals are being outweighed by short-term tactic...
Fri, Apr 23 2010, 2:55 PM
CNBC "broke news" this morning that 6 of 10 FOMC members allegedly believe it would be wise to begin selling their mortgage holdings....in the "near t...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 10:20 AM
I show BoA better, Chase better, Citi worse, GMAC better, and Wells worse. REPRICES FOR THE BETTER AROUND 100-23. REPRICES FOR THE WORSE AROUND 100-10...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 6:22 PM
The answer to the question I posed in the title of this blog: YES. Longer term bullish technicals still outweigh short term bearish arguments. If you ...
Thu, Apr 22 2010, 1:32 PM
f you already locked, you're good. If you haven't, and HAVE seen a reprice for the worse today, you can afford to wait and hope for a not-as-likely t...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 9:18 AM
* MBS opened up as high as 100-10 before 9am, trends still developing
* The 10yr took a nice "baby bounce" off yesterday's low yield as a MAJOR p...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 6:03 PM
Not sure and we really don't want to look too much into this market's "feelings" at the moment. The empty economics calendar, constant babble about Go...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 3:38 PM
The "rate sheet influential" FN 4.5 MBS coupon is just off its highest prices/lowest yields of the day and one major lender just repriced for the bett...
Wed, Apr 21 2010, 1:48 PM
Best possibility remains reprices for the better. Take note of how aggressive the pricing is (or isn't). And if you're looking at something that's a...
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 10:38 AM
Activity seems subdued. If I were looking for a reason to believe that chopatility might trigger the above offered reprice targets, I might say a lack...
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 5:41 PM
Tue, Apr 20 2010, 3:14 PM
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 10:13 AM
The obvious leading candidate for the market's strategic motivation will be CDO contagion and continued stories of misrepresentation and market manipu...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 7:11 PM
The moral of the story is that we've been feeling the liklihood for slightly higher rates at some point this week and the mild movement today from 3.7...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 3:30 PM
Mortgages have hit a new intraday price low. Even as MBS and Treasuries have worsened further in recent minutes, they are not showing a clear disposit...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 1:25 PM
Like big brother TSYs, trading of production MBS coupons has been slow to start the week. For the most part, we are playing "follow the leader" with b...
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 12:23 PM
The SEC caught us all off-guard this morning by announcing they were filing civil charges on Goldman Sachs for material misrepresentation.A knee jerk ...
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 9:31 AM
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 4:46 PM
You'll notice that AQ and I tend to ramp up our fervor with respect to locking your loans around market peaks. We could ponder why that is, but more ...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 12:45 PM
Over the past two days we have been favoring a lock bias. This bias was based more on lender strategies than price action in the bond market. While we...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 10:08 AM
Considering CPI data confirmed inflation is well contained and Ben Bernanke continues to provide low rate rhetoric..I have to say I am baffled by the...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 3:45 PM
It's a bit too soon to call that for today and likely of small significance compared to whatever tomorrow holds. From a bearish stance, we've caught ...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 10:14 AM
Inflation is well-contained but consumer spending continues to improve. One is bond bullish the other is bond bearish. Looks like 830AM data was a was...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 6:22 PM
I guess it would be that today's weakness isn't necessarily a sign of things to come, but there's plenty of potential for gains and losses ahead, eith...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 3:45 PM
The FN 4.5 has fallen to its lowest price of the day. Reprices for the worse have been reported.
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 2:30 PM
I really didn't take anything new from today's hearing. My dovish stance was reconfirmed. There are still significant restraints on the economy, infla...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 11:12 AM
After hitting an early morning price high of 100-18, the FN 4.5 is currently trading -0-01 at 100-06, a new intraday price low.Lenders who published p...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 10:02 AM
THERE IS A CLEAR CUT LACK OF NEW LOAN SUPPLY IN THE AGENCY MBS MARKET. Combine that with a general slowdown in mortgage specific trading flows (+modes...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 6:11 PM
Despite a few instances of volatility above, we see 10yr yields gradually "coasting" into a roughly 3.82 level ahead of tomorrow's CPI data and Bernan...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 2:36 PM
If Ben's tight rope walk is balanced and the short-end of the yield curve rallies as a result, it sure would make it a heck of a lot easier for the 10...
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 12:05 PM
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 10:13 AM
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 5:26 PM
Searching for the causality behind today's stellar performance in bonds has left even some smart folks guessing. Reasons offered include "end of the ...
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