Mon, Apr 19 2010, 10:13 AM
The obvious leading candidate for the market's strategic motivation will be CDO contagion and continued stories of misrepresentation and market manipu...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 7:11 PM
The moral of the story is that we've been feeling the liklihood for slightly higher rates at some point this week and the mild movement today from 3.7...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 3:30 PM
Mortgages have hit a new intraday price low. Even as MBS and Treasuries have worsened further in recent minutes, they are not showing a clear disposit...
Mon, Apr 19 2010, 1:25 PM
Like big brother TSYs, trading of production MBS coupons has been slow to start the week. For the most part, we are playing "follow the leader" with b...
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 12:23 PM
The SEC caught us all off-guard this morning by announcing they were filing civil charges on Goldman Sachs for material misrepresentation.A knee jerk ...
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 9:31 AM
Fri, Apr 16 2010, 4:46 PM
You'll notice that AQ and I tend to ramp up our fervor with respect to locking your loans around market peaks. We could ponder why that is, but more ...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 12:45 PM
Over the past two days we have been favoring a lock bias. This bias was based more on lender strategies than price action in the bond market. While we...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 10:08 AM
Considering CPI data confirmed inflation is well contained and Ben Bernanke continues to provide low rate rhetoric..I have to say I am baffled by the...
Thu, Apr 15 2010, 3:45 PM
It's a bit too soon to call that for today and likely of small significance compared to whatever tomorrow holds. From a bearish stance, we've caught ...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 10:14 AM
Inflation is well-contained but consumer spending continues to improve. One is bond bullish the other is bond bearish. Looks like 830AM data was a was...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 6:22 PM
I guess it would be that today's weakness isn't necessarily a sign of things to come, but there's plenty of potential for gains and losses ahead, eith...
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 3:45 PM
The FN 4.5 has fallen to its lowest price of the day. Reprices for the worse have been reported.
Wed, Apr 14 2010, 2:30 PM
I really didn't take anything new from today's hearing. My dovish stance was reconfirmed. There are still significant restraints on the economy, infla...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 11:12 AM
After hitting an early morning price high of 100-18, the FN 4.5 is currently trading -0-01 at 100-06, a new intraday price low.Lenders who published p...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 10:02 AM
THERE IS A CLEAR CUT LACK OF NEW LOAN SUPPLY IN THE AGENCY MBS MARKET. Combine that with a general slowdown in mortgage specific trading flows (+modes...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 6:11 PM
Despite a few instances of volatility above, we see 10yr yields gradually "coasting" into a roughly 3.82 level ahead of tomorrow's CPI data and Bernan...
Tue, Apr 13 2010, 2:36 PM
If Ben's tight rope walk is balanced and the short-end of the yield curve rallies as a result, it sure would make it a heck of a lot easier for the 10...
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 12:05 PM
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 10:13 AM
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 5:26 PM
Searching for the causality behind today's stellar performance in bonds has left even some smart folks guessing. Reasons offered include "end of the ...
Mon, Apr 12 2010, 2:18 PM
Though there are several ways to approach the strength in bonds this afternoon, leading candidates include upcoming Federal Reserve speakers who have ...
Fri, Apr 9 2010, 10:24 AM
This modest retracement is not out of the ordinary and definitely not unwelcome by MBS valuations. I hope I was able to provide enough justification t...
Fri, Apr 9 2010, 1:33 PM
Couple significant technical events in the past hour... The charts make it look as if the market reacted to a specific news or econ item, but so far,...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 12:49 PM
The 10 yr note yield has risen to its highest yield of the day amidst position squaring. The 3.625% coupon bearing 10 year note is currently -0-03 at ...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 9:49 AM
You know the story. We forecast a test of 4.00% back in December. That test happened in extremely illiquid quarter-end conditions after a run of bett...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 4:21 PM
4.5's down 2 ticks on the day to 100-00. 10yr note up about 2.3bps at 3.886. Stocks back at 1187 in S&P. Bernanke speaks later this evening. Limited...
Thu, Apr 8 2010, 1:56 PM
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $13 billion 30 year bonds. Four of the last five long bond auctions have been at this size, so the market is a...
Wed, Apr 7 2010, 12:36 PM
Things are either going to get really great, really quick for MBS, or insanely volatile. EXPECT THE VOLATILITY! THESE ARE BIG TIMES IN THE BOND MARK...
Wed, Apr 7 2010, 6:37 PM
As far as locking and floating, I'd probably take certain deals off the table if I promised some higher power that I would do so if they could just he...
Wed, Apr 7 2010, 1:46 PM
"Rate Sheet Influential" Treasuries and MBS are rallying after a very strong 10 year Treasury note auction. Reprices for the better are likely...
Tue, Apr 6 2010, 12:15 PM
Stage 1 of the Fed's exit looks to be behind us with only minimal damage done. Rising mortgage rates have been more a function of higher benchmark yie...
Tue, Apr 6 2010, 10:01 AM
Overseas rates traders came back to work today to find much cheaper bond prices and higher "risk free" yields thus, "rate sheet influential Treasuries...
Tue, Apr 6 2010, 3:08 PM
Overall, continued cautiousness is obvious. Much is still uncertain from their point of view, but there is plenty of weakness to warrant an exceptiona...
Tue, Apr 6 2010, 1:23 PM
It's going to FEEL uncomfortable to float "on the edge" deals that you would prefer to float until tomorrow but IF we see any reprices, they won't be ...
Mon, Apr 5 2010, 11:53 AM
Morning data was great for stock bulls but bad for bonds. After the date, the S&P hit new 2010 highs at 1,187, the 10 year Treasury note yield continu...
Mon, Apr 5 2010, 2:51 PM
The bad news is that bonds are still at or near their weakest levels of the day, but the good news is that some semblance of support looks to be in ef...
Fri, Apr 2 2010, 11:23 AM
Fri, Apr 2 2010, 9:22 AM
There's ammo for both bulls and bears in this data. Revisions to previous data add 40,000 more jobs than previously reported. Census workers spend mo...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 12:36 PM
The Treasury Department has announced the terms of next week's auction cycle. In total, $82 billion in notes and bonds will be sold. This will raise a...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 10:05 AM
While the benchmark TSY market is apathetically "so so" today, the scene is not pretty in "rate sheet influential" mortgage-land. The FN 4.5 is -0-10...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 6:19 PM
With the charts relatively boring, here's a quasi-op-ed, quasi-"perspective amidst the chaos" from us to you. If you'd rather skip that, there are s...
Thu, Apr 1 2010, 3:10 PM
Fannie 4.5's at 99-29. 10yr Tsy yield at 3.865. Couple bouts of volatility earlier have given way to a narrow range for MBS. 4.5's are well off the lo...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 11:16 AM
The Fannie 4.5 MBS coupon has lost all positive progress that was picked up following a much weaker than forecast ADP print at 815am. The FN 4.5 is cu...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 9:39 AM
Nonfarm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Goods producing businesses are still the weakest ...
Wed, Mar 31 2010, 4:43 PM
I discussed a few technical levels last night. Specifically, that 100-16, 100-10, and 100-07 were good levels to keep an eye on. That call turned ou...
MBS Market Alerts
