Thu, Jun 3 2010, 8:48 AM
Traders have closed longs and covered shorts and are now ready to react to whatever news and information is offered in the next 24 hours. The big ques...
Thu, Jun 3 2010, 4:41 PM
I know many of you are probably sitting on a few loans trying to decide if you should float into the 15 day window in hopes of another rally and bette...
Thu, Jun 3 2010, 1:28 PM
Auction sizes continue to trend lower. Less debt supply is always a great thing for the market's state of mind. However we may be battling greater for...
Wed, Jun 2 2010, 8:34 AM
While there were a few news headlines to account for in valuations today, price action and trading flows really didn't teach us anything new about the...
Wed, Jun 2 2010, 7:39 PM
Stocks closed near three day highs and benchmark TSY yields went out...near three day highs too! We did manage to make it through the day without repr...
Wed, Jun 2 2010, 1:44 PM
The on again, off again, on again appetite for risk has led the benchmark 10 yr TSY note yield 4.8bps higher all the way up to the 3.31% pivot. Conseq...
Tue, Jun 1 2010, 8:23 AM
The WEEK AHEAD is busy with the release of NonFarm Payrolls on Friday (The Official Employment Report) headlining the schedule. Over the last month, d...
Tue, Jun 1 2010, 6:01 PM
Thanks to a lack of liquidity in the 4.0 TBA MBS market, securitizing 4.5 and 5.0 MBS is a lender's best execution option (how do you hedge 4.0s right...
Tue, Jun 1 2010, 1:54 PM
It's been a choppy, back and forth, up and down trading session with no clear bias in motion. Rate sheet influential MBS have performed admirably as T...
Fri, May 28 2010, 9:42 AM
It is still unclear whether the stock market rally we witnessed yesterday was simply a short term correction in the context of a broader downtrend or ...
Fri, May 28 2010, 2:46 PM
"For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. T...
Thu, May 27 2010, 11:11 AM
Mortgages are experiencing some localized weakness thanks to a modest pick up in originator selling (5.0s) and servicer duration dumping. The FNCL 4....
Thu, May 27 2010, 8:21 AM
FNCL 45 -11 at 101-31. Current Coupon:+7.5bps at 4.132%. MBS Yield Spreads Tighter In Busy Flows. 10s: +11.5bps at 3.307%. 2s/10s: +8 at 245bps. S&Ps:...
Thu, May 27 2010, 4:47 PM
The violent spike in rates we witnessed today will force market participants to re-evaluate their strategic and tactical biases as bullish interest ra...
Thu, May 27 2010, 1:09 PM
Average auction. Demand was there but at higher yields. We're lucky stocks weren't selling today because this issuance would have gone worse if yields...
Wed, May 26 2010, 10:15 AM
U.S. equities rallied into the close yesterday. This momentum extended into the overnight session all the way into this morning. A WAY BETTER THAN EXP...
Wed, May 26 2010, 5:45 PM
Rate sheet influential MBS valuations had another volatile day thanks to some violent swings in the stock market. We did however make it through norma...
Wed, May 26 2010, 2:05 PM
Our fate rests mostly in the stock lever. If the S&P breaks 1090 and 10s push through 3.25% support...reprices for the worse are likely. Some smaller ...
Tue, May 25 2010, 9:38 AM
Housing did nothing to reverse the risk averse bias in stocks. The flight to quality into government bonds continues...mortgage rates should improve t...
Tue, May 25 2010, 5:45 PM
MBS close +8 ticks on the day, at 102-11, but that's off highs around 102-15. 10yr notes have backed up aggressively and directionally, rising from 3....
Tue, May 25 2010, 2:17 PM
In and of itself, the auction wasn't good, at least not when comparing metric to metric vs recent averages. But how much should we have expected thos...
Mon, May 24 2010, 10:19 AM
Stocks and bonds traded in a volatile manner last week as cash continued to seek out a liquid marketplace. Risk aversion remains the favored strategic...
Mon, May 24 2010, 3:39 PM
So here we are in a relatively light-on-data Monday following a week that saw some huge movements across all markets and the the sense of anticlimax i...
Mon, May 24 2010, 1:09 PM
The process of markets PREPARING to either confirm this range or to retrace back into weaker territory is evident in the CONSOLIDATION patterns that A...
Fri, May 21 2010, 11:59 AM
Stocks are rallying and rates are selling off. The S&P is currently +1.33% at 1085.88 after hitting an intraday low of 1056. The 10yr TSY note is flat...
Fri, May 21 2010, 11:05 AM
The most recent version of FinReg Reform legislation took another step toward the 1930s yesterday. Our Senators, who we collectively voted into offic...
Fri, May 21 2010, 2:41 PM
Thu, May 20 2010, 9:38 AM
Shifts in the value of global currencies, rising short term bank funding costs (LIBOR), and general political uncertainties (here and abroad) continue...
Thu, May 20 2010, 3:14 PM
The bottom line is that it's more likely to hold than not. And if you're "playing the range until the range plays you," this is the last stop on the ...
Wed, May 19 2010, 11:39 AM
Choppy trading conditions continue to expand the already spacious "rate sheet influential" MBS coupon trading range. The FN 4.5 has traded as high as ...
Wed, May 19 2010, 9:33 AM
The Euro hit a new four year low of $1.2162 before closing down 1.49% at 1.2207. The S&P ended the day session -1.42% at 1120.80. The 10 yr TSY note w...
Wed, May 19 2010, 6:16 PM
4.5's closed up 1 tick at 101-31. 3pm marks were at 102-00. Treasuries were effectively unchanged from 3pm marks at 3.37, but 5pm to 5pm, yields bac...
Wed, May 19 2010, 2:31 PM
The Federal Reserve has released the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting held on April 27-28, 2010. MBS are steady after the FOMC min...
Tue, May 18 2010, 10:26 AM
Watch for the Euro, which has been gaining ground all morning, to reverse course and begin losing value against the dollar again. If this happens stoc...
Tue, May 18 2010, 5:33 PM
Very strong afternoon for bonds, and in decent volume as well. Primarily however, there remains an air of global uneasiness, if not panic, that is go...
Tue, May 18 2010, 2:55 PM
After a strong open, the value of the Euro fell which pulled stocks lower and forced another flight to quality into risk-free Treasuries. This helped ...
Mon, May 17 2010, 10:51 AM
Floating one day at a time seems safe when the range trade is in play, just don't get lulled to sleep by a slow and steady grind to the right. When ra...
Mon, May 17 2010, 6:32 PM
By and large, most technical frameworks through which we've been viewing the markets recently held up well today despite the selling in bonds. That s...
Mon, May 17 2010, 3:07 PM
Longer term considerations about today's relatively small movements will follow later in the day. For now, be aware of potential reprices for the wor...
Mon, May 17 2010, 1:49 PM
Treasury International Capital data (TIC data), which tracks foreign purchases and holdings of US securities, showed a sharp increase in monthly net h...
Fri, May 14 2010, 9:28 AM
Retail Sales were up 0.4% in April, this beat the Reuters survey consensus estimate of +0.2% but was sharply lower than the previous print of +1.9%. E...
Fri, May 14 2010, 6:59 PM
It is very tempting to advise floating in this situation. Mortgage rates are literally at their best levels of the year. Consumer borrowing costs real...
Fri, May 14 2010, 1:01 PM
Rate sheets were a bit delayed this morning as lenders scrambled to figure out what percentage of their pipeline would need float downs today. The gen...
Thu, May 13 2010, 10:53 AM
The pendulum swings one way and then the other. Markets are extremely noncommittal with Gold and the Euro being the only assets exhibiting significan...
Thu, May 13 2010, 5:09 PM
4.5's Go Out +0-06 at 101-07. MBS Current Coupon: -3.3bps at 4.303%. 10yr TSY 3.70 bps lower at 3.534%. Long Bond Auction Went Well. MBS spreads tigh...
Thu, May 13 2010, 1:54 PM
While the long bond refunding didn't go as well as the previous reopenings, it went well for a refunding. Direct bidders continue to be a massive sour...
Wed, May 12 2010, 10:06 AM
Wed, May 12 2010, 4:09 PM
The Budget deficit is at a record high. It's almost as if QE costs money, but then we're surprised when we get a report back that says we're spending...
Wed, May 12 2010, 2:01 PM
Direct bidders continue to show up as big U.S. debt supporters, indirect bidders were aggressive, taking home almost 70% of what they bid on (hit rate...
Tue, May 11 2010, 10:20 AM
With only low-tier data out so far today, the focus moving forward should be on the 3yr note auction. Recent bullishness in bonds, in general, is gen...
MBS Market Alerts
