Mon, May 24 2010, 10:19 AM
Stocks and bonds traded in a volatile manner last week as cash continued to seek out a liquid marketplace. Risk aversion remains the favored strategic...
Mon, May 24 2010, 3:39 PM
So here we are in a relatively light-on-data Monday following a week that saw some huge movements across all markets and the the sense of anticlimax i...
Mon, May 24 2010, 1:09 PM
The process of markets PREPARING to either confirm this range or to retrace back into weaker territory is evident in the CONSOLIDATION patterns that A...
Fri, May 21 2010, 11:59 AM
Stocks are rallying and rates are selling off. The S&P is currently +1.33% at 1085.88 after hitting an intraday low of 1056. The 10yr TSY note is flat...
Fri, May 21 2010, 11:05 AM
The most recent version of FinReg Reform legislation took another step toward the 1930s yesterday. Our Senators, who we collectively voted into offic...
Fri, May 21 2010, 2:41 PM
Thu, May 20 2010, 9:38 AM
Shifts in the value of global currencies, rising short term bank funding costs (LIBOR), and general political uncertainties (here and abroad) continue...
Thu, May 20 2010, 3:14 PM
The bottom line is that it's more likely to hold than not. And if you're "playing the range until the range plays you," this is the last stop on the ...
Wed, May 19 2010, 11:39 AM
Choppy trading conditions continue to expand the already spacious "rate sheet influential" MBS coupon trading range. The FN 4.5 has traded as high as ...
Wed, May 19 2010, 9:33 AM
The Euro hit a new four year low of $1.2162 before closing down 1.49% at 1.2207. The S&P ended the day session -1.42% at 1120.80. The 10 yr TSY note w...
Wed, May 19 2010, 6:16 PM
4.5's closed up 1 tick at 101-31. 3pm marks were at 102-00. Treasuries were effectively unchanged from 3pm marks at 3.37, but 5pm to 5pm, yields bac...
Wed, May 19 2010, 2:31 PM
The Federal Reserve has released the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting held on April 27-28, 2010. MBS are steady after the FOMC min...
Tue, May 18 2010, 10:26 AM
Watch for the Euro, which has been gaining ground all morning, to reverse course and begin losing value against the dollar again. If this happens stoc...
Tue, May 18 2010, 5:33 PM
Very strong afternoon for bonds, and in decent volume as well. Primarily however, there remains an air of global uneasiness, if not panic, that is go...
Tue, May 18 2010, 2:55 PM
After a strong open, the value of the Euro fell which pulled stocks lower and forced another flight to quality into risk-free Treasuries. This helped ...
Mon, May 17 2010, 10:51 AM
Floating one day at a time seems safe when the range trade is in play, just don't get lulled to sleep by a slow and steady grind to the right. When ra...
Mon, May 17 2010, 6:32 PM
By and large, most technical frameworks through which we've been viewing the markets recently held up well today despite the selling in bonds. That s...
Mon, May 17 2010, 3:07 PM
Longer term considerations about today's relatively small movements will follow later in the day. For now, be aware of potential reprices for the wor...
Mon, May 17 2010, 1:49 PM
Treasury International Capital data (TIC data), which tracks foreign purchases and holdings of US securities, showed a sharp increase in monthly net h...
Fri, May 14 2010, 9:28 AM
Retail Sales were up 0.4% in April, this beat the Reuters survey consensus estimate of +0.2% but was sharply lower than the previous print of +1.9%. E...
Fri, May 14 2010, 6:59 PM
It is very tempting to advise floating in this situation. Mortgage rates are literally at their best levels of the year. Consumer borrowing costs real...
Fri, May 14 2010, 1:01 PM
Rate sheets were a bit delayed this morning as lenders scrambled to figure out what percentage of their pipeline would need float downs today. The gen...
Thu, May 13 2010, 10:53 AM
The pendulum swings one way and then the other. Markets are extremely noncommittal with Gold and the Euro being the only assets exhibiting significan...
Thu, May 13 2010, 5:09 PM
4.5's Go Out +0-06 at 101-07. MBS Current Coupon: -3.3bps at 4.303%. 10yr TSY 3.70 bps lower at 3.534%. Long Bond Auction Went Well. MBS spreads tigh...
Thu, May 13 2010, 1:54 PM
While the long bond refunding didn't go as well as the previous reopenings, it went well for a refunding. Direct bidders continue to be a massive sour...
Wed, May 12 2010, 10:06 AM
Wed, May 12 2010, 4:09 PM
The Budget deficit is at a record high. It's almost as if QE costs money, but then we're surprised when we get a report back that says we're spending...
Wed, May 12 2010, 2:01 PM
Direct bidders continue to show up as big U.S. debt supporters, indirect bidders were aggressive, taking home almost 70% of what they bid on (hit rate...
Tue, May 11 2010, 10:20 AM
With only low-tier data out so far today, the focus moving forward should be on the 3yr note auction. Recent bullishness in bonds, in general, is gen...
Tue, May 11 2010, 6:07 PM
t does seem that even those who see low interest rates prevailing (or even getting a bit lower) in the medium term, are still expecting some weakness ...
Tue, May 11 2010, 3:40 PM
The MBS coupons that determine rate sheet pricing are traded in the TBA MBS market. TBA = To be Announced. In the TBA MBS market, at the time a trade ...
Tue, May 11 2010, 2:21 PM
While the auction went well, benchmark Treasury yields were already being pressured higher by the stock level ahead of auction results.
Mon, May 10 2010, 10:12 AM
The originator friendly flight to quality that led benchmark interest rates 30 basis points lower last week is now being backed out of the bond market...
Mon, May 10 2010, 5:39 PM
The simple fact that stocks rallied big and treasuries sold similarly does not necessarily mean that "low rates" are heading higher due to the earlier...
Mon, May 10 2010, 2:45 PM
Equity markets are holding onto gains after experiencing an unexplained liquidity freeze and record price dip last Thursday. Benchmark interest rates ...
Fri, May 7 2010, 10:13 AM
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply, the U.S. Bu...
Fri, May 7 2010, 2:35 PM
What does it all mean? Not a clue, as always... But we'd watch the long term trends in 10's above all else, and have a little default assumption abo...
Thu, May 6 2010, 12:34 PM
Reprices for the better either have already hit, or soon will. Expect gravity around 3.49 in the 10yr, and a trampoline-like sheet of nearly impenetr...
Thu, May 6 2010, 10:12 AM
Productivity advances have served to limit further layoffs and keep inflation low....this a positive for the housing industry as controlled inflation ...
Thu, May 6 2010, 4:00 PM
4.5 MBS UP 16 TICKS AT 101-18. WERE AS HIGH AS 101-25. 10YR NOTE YIELDS DOWN ALMOST 20 BPS AT 3.38. DOW'S DOWN ABOUT 425. HIGH OF THE DAY: 10880. ...
Wed, May 5 2010, 9:05 AM
4.5's are up 7 ticks this AM at 101-05. Current Coupon Yield Spreads widest since Nov/Dec 09. 10yr yields down another 5bps at 3.54. Stock futures are...
Wed, May 5 2010, 5:43 PM
It's very uncomfortable for me to say that today's price action "confirms" the break to lower yields in treasuries. AQ mentioned the phrase "made of g...
Wed, May 5 2010, 3:09 PM
MBS up 7 ticks at 101-04. 10yr yields at 3.56, having traded from 3.61 to 3.49 today. Stocks rallied and fell again, not quite as bad as the open, bu...
Tue, May 4 2010, 9:58 AM
The stock lever's influence on interest rates is obvious...stocks down, interest rate prices up. A confluence of logic. The Euro is at a one year low....
Tue, May 4 2010, 6:12 PM
I'm just as hopeful as the next guy that stocks DO break lower and the 10yr DOES re-test 3.5 and the 4.5 DOES spend some more time in the 101's. All ...
Tue, May 4 2010, 2:12 PM
We have to remember WHERE the volume is coming from.. In this case, some potential reconcilable sovereign debt concerns. There was plenty of the sam...
Mon, May 3 2010, 10:18 AM
Japan and London are out on holiday so trading flows may be tempered by a lack of broad based conviction. This implies chopatility is highly likely. ...
Mon, May 3 2010, 6:36 PM
"The increase in borrowing and the higher cash balance were due to a combination of the increase in the SFP balance, higher receipts, lower outlays, a...
Mon, May 3 2010, 3:06 PM
The lack of conviction discussed in the AM post is obvious in both stocks and bonds today. The S&P is +1.47% at 1204.12. Essentially erasing the losse...
Fri, Apr 30 2010, 10:45 AM
This is exactly why we have been preaching the fundamentals of GUTFLOP so much lately. PLAY THE RANGE UNTIL THE RANGE PLAYS YOU and LOCK AT THE PRICE ...
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