Wed, Apr 6 2022, 11:51 AM
There is a highly reliable track record of the bond market moving quickly to get in position for the Fed's expected course of action. When those expe...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 4:43 PM
Market's Fear is Bigger Than The Fed's Appetite For Destruction
The Fed is on a mission to destroy demand fo...
Tue, Apr 5 2022, 12:19 PM
Sorry... I couldn't think of any "B" words for "weakest levels."
Our big project of the past week and a half has been to assess the possibility of a...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 4:01 PM
Curve Steepening Helps MBS, but Keeps Broader Indecision Intact
We're looking to the first few days of April...
Mon, Apr 4 2022, 11:38 AM
NFP Friday rarely falls on the first day of the month/quarter. The last time it happened in April was 2016, and it was wholly uneventful. The same m...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 5:20 PM
Rate Recovery Stumbles, But Jury Still Out
As we said in the run up to today's trading session, we need to s...
Fri, Apr 1 2022, 12:09 PM
Bonds got off to a much weaker start on Friday as "new month, new quarter" tradeflows leave sellers firmly in control. This began right out of the ga...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 4:34 PM
Mixed Day For Bonds, But Same Opportunities (And Risks) Remain
The day began fairly well for the bond market...
Thu, Mar 31 2022, 10:53 AM
This is the "to be or not to be" question for the bond market right now. Said differently, have we suffered sufficient slings and arrows for investor...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 3:49 PM
Yields Bounce Back Nicely, Ending Lower For 2nd Straight Day
Back to back rally days are a rarity in March. ...
Wed, Mar 30 2022, 9:52 AM
Oil prices aren't everything when it comes to the bond market, but they've been an important domino a few places farther up the chain due to their imp...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 4:05 PM
Another Compelling Bounce. Is This Another Head Fake?
Much like Wednesday of last week, bonds managed to pos...
Tue, Mar 29 2022, 10:06 AM
Not that there was any reason to doubt inflation as the key consideration in the bond market right now, but those looking for extra confirmation can e...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 3:58 PM
Yields Recover After New Long-Term Highs Overnight
Treasury yields rose to new long-term highs during the fi...
Mon, Mar 28 2022, 12:26 PM
The new week begins with longer-dated bonds recovering significantly better than short-term notes after Friday's big selling spree. In fact, the shor...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 4:30 PM
What's Up With Today's Massive Snowball Sell-Off?
Seemingly out of the blue, and without any clear connectio...
Fri, Mar 25 2022, 1:51 PM
Thursday may have seen some bond market weakness, but it was the kind we could tolerate considering yields didn't make new highs on the week. In that...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 3:54 PM
No Easy Victory For The Consolidation
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen ...
Thu, Mar 24 2022, 11:29 AM
We began yesterday by counting all of the bond market head fakes seen since the Fed's first notable revision to the policy outlook in September 2021. ...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 4:17 PM
Best Rally in Weeks. Should We Care?
Days like Wednesday remind us of days like February 11th. At the time...
Wed, Mar 23 2022, 10:45 AM
When yields/rates have risen as much as we've seen so far in 2022, and especially when the 10yr hit the 2.40% target that we didn't expect to see quit...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 4:28 PM
Snowball Selling Pushes 10yr Toward 2.4%, Mortgage Rates to High 4's
The global market jumped on the bandwag...
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 12:16 PM
At times in the QE era, the markets have rushed to adjust to a rapidly evolving understanding of the Fed's policy intentions. At other times, the Fed...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 6:27 PM
From Bad to Worse as Powell Doubles Down on Policy Shift
Things were already fairly ugly this morning as the bond market opted to pay no attenti...
Mon, Mar 21 2022, 9:05 AM
For two Fridays in a row, bonds have leveled off in a way that offered some hope for consolidation and stability. And for two Mondays in a row, the w...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 4:20 PM
Another Shot at Consolidation. Is This Time Different?
Last Friday had a fairly classic "leveling-off" vibe ...
Fri, Mar 18 2022, 12:23 PM
With this week's Fed announcement in the rearview and no other earth-shattering developments in data or geopolitics, bonds are left to the sort of con...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 4:17 PM
Mixed Day For Bonds; MBS Outperform
Today's trading session had a bit an anticlimactic "day after" vibe foll...
Thu, Mar 17 2022, 11:09 AM
Last week was ugly for the bond market even though much of the ugliness was due to the immense rally of the previous week. By Friday, rates were able...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 4:20 PM
Big Swoon After Fed Announcement, Big Recovery Later
Today delivered on the typical Fed day promise of big m...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in rec...
Wed, Mar 16 2022, 11:10 AM
We already know that tapering has wrapped up as of last week and that the Fed will continue to reinvest proceeds from the existing bond portfolio unti...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 4:44 PM
Annoying Little Head-Fake, But Don't Abandon All Hope
Just when the bond market looks like it will throw you...
Tue, Mar 15 2022, 1:11 PM
Coming off of yesterday's gigantic selling spree, bonds caught a break in the overnight session after briefly hitting even higher highs (10yr topped o...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 4:10 PM
What's Up With Today's Massive Sell-Off In Bonds?
Bonds tanked hard today. Losses were in place right from ...
Mon, Mar 14 2022, 10:38 AM
If anything, fighting intensified over the weekend in Ukraine. This is something that would typically drive more safe-haven buying in the bond market...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 3:49 PM
Uncharacteristically Quiet, But Still Slightly Weaker
Bonds started the overnight session stronger, but lost...
Fri, Mar 11 2022, 11:48 AM
Today marks the conclusion of the Fed's post-covid balance sheet expansion. In other words. Tapering is complete. Before covid, the Fed enacted qua...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 4:00 PM
Bonds Not Catching a Break From Strong Auction or Lower Oil Prices
Oil prices fell today today and the bond ...
Thu, Mar 10 2022, 9:39 AM
The bond market is looking past Ukraine and economic data this morning to focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The reaction in EU b...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 4:31 PM
Hopeful Markets and Big Corporate Deal Pushes Yields Higher
Stocks and bond yields moved higher in unison to...
Wed, Mar 9 2022, 12:49 PM
As we've discussed over the past 2 days, the bond market remains stuck between a rock and a hard place. If things get worse in Ukraine, commodity pri...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 4:22 PM
Struggling to Find a Rate-Friendly Narrative
Bonds sold off early in the overnight session and then more sha...
Tue, Mar 8 2022, 11:39 AM
Things aren't always as simple as they seem. Let's hope that's the case for bonds, because things seem tragically simple when we try to reconcile the...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 4:15 PM
Bonds Struggling With Inflation Implications
Although the bond market is still a net beneficiary from the wa...
Mon, Mar 7 2022, 10:05 AM
The week is getting off to a weaker start. Bonds rallied in the first hour of overnight trading but began to lose ground steadily after that. By the...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 4:07 PM
Yields Near Recent Lows Heading Into Another Highly Uncertain Weekend
Bonds began the overnight session with...
Fri, Mar 4 2022, 11:46 AM
As Russia continues waging war on Ukraine and wage growth disappointed in this morning's jobs report, bonds are rallying back toward the best levels o...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 4:14 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Mid-Week Rout
Any additional weakness after Wednesday's blood-letting would have ad...
Thu, Mar 3 2022, 12:42 PM
There was more than a shred of hope in the overnight trading session as bonds were able to make modest gains despite slightly stronger stocks and anot...
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