Thu, May 12 2022, 4:20 PM
Finally Time to Start Entertaining an Actual Shift?
Bonds have made several attempts to consolidate and boun...
Thu, May 12 2022, 11:22 AM
For the first time in months (and longer than that if we factor out the artificial/temporary boost from the Ukraine flight to safety) bond yields are ...
Wed, May 11 2022, 3:54 PM
Bonds Bounce Back Despite Hotter Inflation Data
Feel free to call it a comeback, but don't ask why it happen...
Wed, May 11 2022, 10:43 AM
Both at the headline and core levels, April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter this morning. This was a high-consequence report for bonds, a...
Tue, May 10 2022, 3:57 PM
Another Solid Day, But It's All About Wednesday's CPI
Bonds managed to post a 2nd consecutive day of gains o...
Tue, May 10 2022, 10:00 AM
For the 3rd or 4th time (depending on your standards), yields are attempting to find a ceiling after launching abruptly higher in early March (1.67% t...
Mon, May 9 2022, 3:49 PM
Big Bond Rally to Start The New Week
In spite of potential headwinds in the coming days (CPI data and Treasu...
Mon, May 9 2022, 11:31 AM
Depending on when you looked this morning, MBS prices may have been red or green, and the gap between any two quotes was rather large (a quarter of a ...
Fri, May 6 2022, 4:54 PM
Rates Give Up After Briefly Trying to Hold Yesterday's Ceiling
There really weren't any new reasons for the ...
Fri, May 6 2022, 12:29 PM
The jobs report is traditionally the most important piece of economic data on any given month. It's even had the power to move the bond market as rec...
Thu, May 5 2022, 4:40 PM
Big Sell Off After a Nice Rally. Blame The Fed Either Way?
Today was one of the rare breed where both stock...
Thu, May 5 2022, 1:04 PM
Solid Fed day and solid rally in response yesterday... Now today, it's not just a complete 180°, but a 180° plus more insult to injury as yields surg...
Wed, May 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Fed Finally Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It
Fed days have seen a series of increasingly hawkish adjustments ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 2:01 PM
Indicators Although of overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and employment business have fixed ...
Wed, May 4 2022, 10:09 AM
At the risk of repeating too many words from yesterday's recap, we'll leave it at this: the Fed will hike by 50bps today. It won't be a surprise to t...
Tue, May 3 2022, 4:03 PM
Fed Day Preview: What Are They Doing and How Much Will Bonds Care?
Given all the bond market volatility seen...
Tue, May 3 2022, 11:23 AM
10yr yields came into the day looking comfortable in the rejection of the 3% ceiling that was briefly tested yesterday and overnight. That occurred a...
Mon, May 2 2022, 4:06 PM
Rocky Start to Fed's Normalization Revelation Week
The Fed has been in full-fledged policy tightening mode i...
Mon, May 2 2022, 10:05 AM
In addition to bringing the typical big market movers scheduled for the first week of any given month, we'll also get a fairly important Fed announcem...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 4:46 PM
Insult to Injury But Still Waiting on Next Week's Fed
Mixed messages in the morning's PCE inflation data sen...
Fri, Apr 29 2022, 11:59 AM
This morning's much-anticipated core PCE inflation headline came out at 5.2% year-over-year versus a median forecast and previous reading of 5.3%. Gr...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 4:22 PM
Nice Intraday Bounce, But No Implication For Bigger Picture
Bonds began the day losing ground following hott...
Thu, Apr 28 2022, 11:40 AM
Yesterday, we surmised that the absence of new rally momentum meant rates weren't yet ready to confirm a major ceiling without digesting a bit more da...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 3:58 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Hit Several Snags
In the bigger picture, the absence of any new rally momentum ...
Wed, Apr 27 2022, 11:06 AM
If only the bond rally of the past 2 days had begun next Monday... Due to its "one week early" timing, the result has been a technical correction tha...
Tue, Apr 26 2022, 3:54 PM
More Gains, But Harder to Hold After Europe Stopped Trading
Bonds made decent gains overnight as overseas ma...
Tue, Apr 26 2022, 10:44 AM
Here at the end of April, bonds are seeing a similar rally to the one seen at the end of March. At least that's true in terms of the number of days o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 4:11 PM
New Bounce, But Same Question
Rates rallied briskly today as investors focused on China's covid lockdowns, o...
Mon, Apr 25 2022, 9:42 AM
Global equities indices fell sharply at various opening bells (and the closing bell too, as far as Asia was concerned). This was less of a concern fo...
Fri, Apr 22 2022, 3:26 PM
Abnormally Uneventful Friday For Bonds
Whether we're talking about actual Fridays or Thursdays that fall bef...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 3:38 PM
Daly Upstages Powell in Today's Fed Drama
With both Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde scheduled to ...
Thu, Apr 21 2022, 11:35 AM
The centerpiece of today's event calendar is a panel discussion on the global economy hosted by the IMF. Both Powell and ECB President Lagarde are on...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 4:01 PM
Strong Auction Lost in Shuffle as Bonds Enjoy an Easy Win
Sometimes during massive selling sprees, the tradi...
Wed, Apr 20 2022, 11:27 AM
We could certainly discuss the fact that bonds are improving so far today amid a strong curve flattening trade, but recent experience suggests we wait...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 5:25 PM
Fed Speakers and Corporate Bonds Keep Negative Momentum Intact
Bonds came into the domestic session moderate...
Tue, Apr 19 2022, 11:20 AM
Another day, another brutal sell-off with little by way of compelling justification. This one may actually be more simple than it seems at first glan...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 4:36 PM
Flat Day For MBS as Markets Wait For More Activity
With most of Europe out of the office, volume got off to ...
Mon, Apr 18 2022, 12:14 PM
With it being the Monday after a 3.5 day weekend, with London closed, and no significant data on the econ calendar, today's marching orders are to act...
Thu, Apr 14 2022, 2:35 PM
Another False Alarm Turns Into Bond Market Beat-Down
If today's bond market behavior wasn't making us cry, w...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 4:01 PM
How About Now (For A Ceiling in Rates) ?
Producer prices surged much higher than expected in this morning's ...
Wed, Apr 13 2022, 12:09 PM
The bond market is running out of potential market movers on this holiday-shortened week with this afternoon's 30yr bond auction and tomorrow's ECB an...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 4:30 PM
Nice Data-Driven Rally, But Keep Recent False Starts in Mind
Incessant trends toward higher rates bring the ...
Tue, Apr 12 2022, 12:11 PM
CPI (the Consumer Price Index) is arguably the most important data point for interest rates in a world where inflation is at the highest levels since ...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 3:51 PM
Running Out of Ways to Say "Higher Rates"
Market watchers are at risk of major desensitization when it comes...
Mon, Apr 11 2022, 11:30 AM
Bonds lost ground early in the overnight session before buyers stepped in to defend the new multi-year highs in yields across the curve. Japanese inve...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 4:20 PM
Rates Keep Playing Defense Ahead of Volatile, Holiday-Shortened Week
Wednesday's Fed Minutes might have serv...
Fri, Apr 8 2022, 11:42 AM
Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat... Hopeful consolidation... Crushing defeat. We've hesitated time and again to endorse too much hope for a t...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 3:54 PM
Bad Day For The 10yr But Not For MBS
The spread between 2 and 10yr yields has widened more than 27bps in 2 d...
Thu, Apr 7 2022, 11:53 AM
Following the second shallow inversion of the 2yr vs 10yr yield curve on Tuesday, 10yr yields have been surging higher while 2s recover. The curve is...
Wed, Apr 6 2022, 4:24 PM
Bonds Doing Admirable Job of Digesting Harsh New Reality
Yesterday's comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard e...
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