Tue, Jan 25 2022, 3:30 PM
Intraday Volatility But Mostly For Treasuries; Fed On Deck
Bonds began the day trading right in line with ye...
Tue, Jan 25 2022, 10:32 AM
Monday had the potential to challenge the notion of the pre-Fed consolidation in the bond market. If yields had managed to break below 1.70% and hold...
Mon, Jan 24 2022, 3:48 PM
MBS Flip Script After Treasury Auction; Bonds Refuse to Chase Stocks
It was a fairly sloppy day of gains for...
Mon, Jan 24 2022, 9:57 AM
Bonds are off to stronger start for a 4th straight trading session. As such, they're following the same pattern as the rally attempt 2 weeks ago (whi...
Fri, Jan 21 2022, 3:35 PM
Another Green Day But MBS Underperform
Bonds rallied today with 10yr yields dropping more than 6bps by the 3...
Fri, Jan 21 2022, 11:26 AM
Bonds are off to an even stronger start on Friday, largely in response to a big risk-off move that rifled through markets in the last 90 minutes of tr...
Thu, Jan 20 2022, 4:14 PM
Still Waiting on Fed Above All Else
Bonds enjoyed another day of modest improvement on Thursday. On the plu...
Thu, Jan 20 2022, 9:55 AM
For the second day this week, bonds are off to a stronger start. The pattern is similar to last week where yields hit new long-term highs on the first...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 3:58 PM
Decent Day, But There's a Catch
Bonds improved today! The rally was moderate by typical standards, but it f...
Wed, Jan 19 2022, 10:02 AM
Remember last Thursday? Bonds had done a great job of pushing back in a friendly direction after a huge week of selling kicked off the new year. Tha...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 3:52 PM
Snowball Selling Continues. Why?
In not so many words, most of the rate drama seen during the past 3 weeks i...
Tue, Jan 18 2022, 10:38 AM
Bonds sold off last Friday after 4 days of relative stability and improvement to start the week. Optimists hoped the weakness was a byproduct of the ...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 5:51 PM
Friday's Sell-Off Makes Rest Of The Week Look Like a Trap
Over the past 2 days, we've pondered the fate of t...
Fri, Jan 14 2022, 11:41 AM
Friday is not shaping up to be a great day for the mortgage bond market. Our benchmark guidance giver of choice (10yr yield) is in the midst of a pot...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 4:16 PM
Just Enough of a Rally to Keep Things Interesting
Coming into the day, we were pondering the fate of this we...
Thu, Jan 13 2022, 11:12 AM
Whether we refer to it as a correction or consolidation, bonds have enjoyed a few days of moderate gains after selling off abruptly last week. Today'...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 4:45 PM
Mixed Signals in Data, Events, and The Market Reaction.
The hotly anticipated CPI data came in roughly in li...
Wed, Jan 12 2022, 11:36 AM
Yesterday's resilient trading day strengthened the case for a corrective (or consolidative ?) bounce after last week's big yield spike. Traders (a...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 4:12 PM
Is it Time To Get Excited About a Bounce?
As per the recent norm, bonds were fairly flat overnight and began...
Tue, Jan 11 2022, 10:31 AM
Bonds were unchanged to slightly stronger for most of the overnight session, but are now losing ground modestly. In the context of the previous 2 tra...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 3:47 PM
A Glimmer of Resilience and a Primer on Which MBS Coupon to Watch
Bonds began the day by resuming the sellin...
Mon, Jan 10 2022, 12:16 PM
Last week saw bonds sell off at their fastest pace in at least 9 months on a combination of a hawkish pivot from the Fed and paradoxical omicron optim...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 4:03 PM
Is It The Jobs Report, The Fed, or Something Else?
It's been quite a week of losses for the bond market. Wh...
Fri, Jan 7 2022, 11:24 AM
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 199k versus a median forecast of 400k. On almost any NFP Friday before the pandemic, this would be worth some positivity ...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 4:18 PM
Stability, But at a Cost; Does NFP Matter Tomorrow?
In terms of intraday volatility, today was arguably the ...
Thu, Jan 6 2022, 12:22 PM
After watching the same consolidation pattern for the past few months and feeling that yields were safely below the upper boundary, that boundary has ...
Wed, Jan 5 2022, 4:39 PM
Big Sell-Off Following Fed Minutes
Even though the bond market thought it knew all it needed to know about t...
Wed, Jan 5 2022, 3:58 PM
The following represents only a portion of the full list of newswire headlines associated with today's Fed Minutes release, but these are likely the m...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 4:30 PM
Bonds Still Selling, But at a Slower Pace
In terms of volume, participation, and holiday closures, today was...
Tue, Jan 4 2022, 9:43 AM
Tokyo and London are back in the office today after yesterday's holiday closures. EU yields moved modestly lower from their highest levels in roughly...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 3:59 PM
Unhappy New Year For Bonds So Far
The first trading day of the new year ended up being one of the worst in m...
Mon, Jan 3 2022, 9:54 AM
Both Tokyo and London were closed overnight, which didn't do anything to help the light liquidity environment of the winter holidays. Domestic accoun...
Fri, Dec 31 2021, 10:30 AM
It's a sign of the times that the only conversations on MBS Live's MBS Community pertain to this morning's Encompass outage. Actually, it's a sign of ...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 3:22 PM
Bonds Snap Back Into Holiday Mode
Wednesday's abrupt sell-off increasingly looks like the market's way of ge...
Thu, Dec 30 2021, 10:19 AM
From the early days of the pandemic, one of the most important realities to consider was that of the eventual recovery, both from the most abject phas...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 5:10 PM
What's Up With The Big Sell-Off in Bonds?
The omicron narrative is one reason being tossed around for today'...
Wed, Dec 29 2021, 8:57 AM
Treasuries trade almost 24 hours a day (assuming London and Tokyo are not out on holiday), but if the domestic bond market has an unofficial opening b...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 4:28 PM
Every Bit As Quiet As It Was Supposed To Be
There's really no way to predict the future when it comes to rat...
Tue, Dec 28 2021, 11:21 AM
Like Monday, bonds traded flat to slightly stronger in Asia, were closed in London, popped a bit higher in early domestic trading, and are now droppin...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 3:23 PM
Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script
There was little to observe and even less to report on today's bon marke...
Mon, Dec 27 2021, 12:58 PM
While bonds aren't closed for business this week, it wouldn't much matter if they were--at least not for the average mortgage rate watcher. That's no...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 4:02 PM
Sideways, Boring, and Slightly Stronger
10yr futures contract volume was roughly 600k by 3pm. That's on par...
Wed, Dec 22 2021, 11:05 AM
If you've grown tired of hearing about holiday related illiquidity in the bond market or you otherwise are fully up to speed on its implications, you'...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 4:41 PM
Incidental Weakness
This morning's commentary covers everything that needs to be said in today's closing com...
Tue, Dec 21 2021, 10:20 AM
One of the best things to keep in mind not just for financial markets but for life in general is that explanations are rarely black and white when it ...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 4:54 PM
Small Scale Volatility Leaves Bonds Slightly Weaker
The day began on a modestly positive note and ended with...
Mon, Dec 20 2021, 11:11 AM
Despite a bit of 2-way trading, bonds are starting the day in slightly stronger territory. Pandemic concerns remain the most obvious source of inspir...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 3:50 PM
Mixed Performance Amid Light Liquidity and Fed Comments
The bond market shifted into a predictable gear for ...
Fri, Dec 17 2021, 11:29 AM
3 hawkish central bank announcements on Wed/Thu have been no match for the bullish impulses at the end of the week. These include but are not limited...
Thu, Dec 16 2021, 4:55 PM
Bonds Defy Logic, Rallying Nicely After Central Banks Tighten
There are only so many ways to explain what ha...
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