Mon, Oct 31 2022, 11:24 AM
Bonds are contending with a modest amount of weakness overnight, but not enough to derail our conclusion that bonds have leveled off after an overdone...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 4:10 PM
Solid Week Despite Friday's Selling, But Next One is More Important
Heading into the current week, it wasn't...
Fri, Oct 28 2022, 10:03 AM
Throughout the week, we've been of the mind that last week's losses were overdone and this week's gains represented a correction to that unjustified w...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 3:34 PM
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Bonds may have moved into stronger territory tod...
Thu, Oct 27 2022, 11:37 AM
Today began with bonds in moderately weaker territory after token defensive positioning following a solid rally and ahead of the week's more consequen...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 5:06 PM
Another Solid Day; Detailed Discussion on 5.0 Coupons vs 7% Rates
Bonds are trading better than they have at...
Wed, Oct 26 2022, 12:31 PM
A bit of housekeeping before we get to the UMBS question...
Bonds have have been rallying very well since yesterday morning. At the same time, the ...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 4:34 PM
Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed?
Bonds rallied overnight of their own volition and in conce...
Tue, Oct 25 2022, 12:13 PM
Bonds rallied at a solid pace overnight with gains in both Asian and European sessions. More impressive, however, have been the domestic session gain...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 4:50 PM
US Bonds Try (And Fail) To Follow The EU Rally
The average day over the past few weeks/months has seen a hig...
Mon, Oct 24 2022, 12:00 PM
The end of last week was a wild little emotional roller coaster for the bond market. Thursday brought a sharp sell-off that spilled into the overnigh...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 4:47 PM
Crazy, Scary Morning Gives Way to Moderate Gains
The bond market gamed the Fed today, and won (i.e. the long...
Fri, Oct 21 2022, 12:34 PM
The bond market began the day by doing its best impression of lover scorned, threatening self harm unless it gets some sort of validation from its for...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 5:27 PM
Important Day For Bonds and an Important Conversation About MBS Coupons
The important conversation about MBS...
Thu, Oct 20 2022, 11:59 AM
Everyone is tired of the persistent sell-off in the bond market, but weariness is no match for the negative momentum. We've long since run out of ways...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 4:59 PM
Another Move to Long Term Lows 'Just Because'
Today began with more upward pressure on yields, apparently du...
Wed, Oct 19 2022, 11:08 AM
Today begins with bond yields at new 14 year highs with the ostensible culprit being the inflation reading in the UK overnight. While there's no ques...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 5:30 PM
Secret Market Movers or New Normal For Intraday Volatility?
Today's most exciting moments arrived just after...
Tue, Oct 18 2022, 11:16 AM
When salmon return to the river after spending a number of years in the ocean, they don't charge upstream immediately. They spend time moving in and ...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 4:26 PM
Technically Stronger But it Feels Weaker
Bonds began the day in stronger territory with overnight support co...
Mon, Oct 17 2022, 12:40 PM
Recall that last Friday saw an extremely sharp selling spree led by UK and exacerbated by domestic data (consumer inflation expectations). Yields end...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 4:28 PM
Even When It's Good, It's Bad
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and E...
Fri, Oct 14 2022, 12:32 PM
Bonds had a good overnight session with fairly steady gains in both Asia and Europe. Kwarteng, the British Finance Minister who kicked off the worst ...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 5:00 PM
How Much Should We Read Into Today's Big Reversal?
Bonds may have ended the day in negative territory, but t...
Thu, Oct 13 2022, 11:42 AM
Pretty simple this morning, at first anyway. Bonds hoped to see just a modicum of relief in the most important data series of 2022, the Consumer Pric...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 4:16 PM
Fully Free to Focus on CPI After Tuesday's Uneventful Data and Events
Bonds shrugged off this morning's PPI ...
Wed, Oct 12 2022, 12:42 PM
Bonds had a mixed overnight session with modest gains initially and moderate losses during European hours. In a bit of a break from the norm, German ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 3:42 PM
Bonds Dodge British Bullet But Still Fighting For Survival
The overnight session and especially yesterday's ...
Tue, Oct 11 2022, 12:05 PM
The holiday trading session was dominated by another snowball sell-off in British bonds with the UK 10yr yield rising more than 30bps. Much like last...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 4:24 PM
Logical Outcome For Bonds. Still Waiting on Data to Tell a New Story
The jobs report came in just slightly a...
Fri, Oct 7 2022, 11:37 AM
Jobs are great for people who like eat food and buy things, but too many jobs are bad for people who like low rates. And when the labor market is bei...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 4:25 PM
Weakest Levels of The Week Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds sold off mid-morning after starting off relatively fla...
Thu, Oct 6 2022, 12:15 PM
Without commenting on the odds of any particular outcome, Thursday can't help but fill the role of "placeholder" given the proximity of tomorrow's big...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 4:08 PM
Confirmation of What We Probably Already Knew
Bonds began the day in weaker territory after a slew of "not-t...
Wed, Oct 5 2022, 9:58 AM
As feared, the recent rally in the bond market is quickly proving that it was fueled by a correction from panicked levels surrounding the UK drama in ...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 4:36 PM
Bonds Might Have Lost Ground Today if Not For Big Data Surprise
Bonds ended up scratching out modest gains t...
Tue, Oct 4 2022, 1:01 PM
Bonds got off to a decent start in the overnight session with help from a lower-than-expected rate hike from the RBA (Australia's central bank) and on...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 3:28 PM
Nice Rally, But Not Out of The Woods Yet
Bonds rallied in two distinct waves on Monday. The first came in ...
Mon, Oct 3 2022, 11:12 AM
Bond yields trickled sideways to slightly stronger to start the overnight session, but experienced better gains as the big news out of the UK made the...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Month-End Selling Keeps Rates Range-Bound
You've perhaps heard of month-end bond buying? How about month-en...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 12:04 PM
Today's calendar may have contained what the Fed refers to as its preferred inflation metric (Core PCE price index), but it was never likely to be a b...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 4:26 PM
Data Dependent Reality Keeps Bonds in Check
Wednesday's emergency bond buying announcement from the BOE serv...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 9:51 AM
Wednesday's rally offered hope after the BOE stepped in with emergency bond buying. The overnight session that followed painted a slightly less hopef...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 4:57 PM
Is Wednesday's Rally Enough to Turn The Tide?
10yr yields began the day with overnight levels easily over 4....
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 1:21 PM
Bond biggest recent issues were caused by a fiscal announcement in the UK that would drastically increase debt and decrease revenue (read: inflationar...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 4:19 PM
Beware The False Hope in MBS Today
MBS ended up with a nice little rally after 2pm that brought prices 3/8th...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 12:19 PM
While there's no way to know exactly when it will happen, there's always some point at the end of an epic sell-off where prices have dropped enough to...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:23 PM
Why do US Rates Suddenly Care About The UK?
If you're just getting caught up, UK fiscal policy is probably a...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 11:36 AM
After a glimmer of hope at the end of last week, bonds are back to their old tricks. Actually, they only have one trick recently: selling-off at a fa...
Fri, Sep 23 2022, 4:44 PM
Let's Talk About Whether It's Time To Talk About Some Resilience
A large, rapid rate spike is frequently one...
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