Mon, Oct 3 2022, 10:12 AM
This is the start of Fat Bear Week. (My money’s on Popeye.) Those poor bears don’t have much privacy, and it turns out that neither do humans. Consume...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 8:48 PM
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Month-End Selling Keeps Rates Range-Bound
You've perhaps heard of month-end bond buying? How about month-en...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 12:04 PM
Today's calendar may have contained what the Fed refers to as its preferred inflation metric (Core PCE price index), but it was never likely to be a b...
Fri, Sep 30 2022, 10:41 AM
If you’ve ever had to hire people, did you sort your applications into three piles: Mad, Hopeless, or Possible? For his Antarctic expeditions, Ernest ...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 5:31 PM
"The following information is deemed reliable only through September 29th, 2022. After that, rates could be as much as .25-.50% higher or lower. " E...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 4:26 PM
Data Dependent Reality Keeps Bonds in Check
Wednesday's emergency bond buying announcement from the BOE serv...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 10:45 AM
Water is a powerful force: just check out this time lapse storm surge video from Ft. Meyers in Florida. Turning to metaphors, Sun Tzu said, “If you wa...
Thu, Sep 29 2022, 9:51 AM
Wednesday's rally offered hope after the BOE stepped in with emergency bond buying. The overnight session that followed painted a slightly less hopef...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 5:33 PM
If you're just getting caught up, mortgage rates broke above 7% yesterday for the first time since 2002. Read our coverage to learn more about why ra...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 4:57 PM
Is Wednesday's Rally Enough to Turn The Tide?
10yr yields began the day with overnight levels easily over 4....
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 1:21 PM
Bond biggest recent issues were caused by a fiscal announcement in the UK that would drastically increase debt and decrease revenue (read: inflationar...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 9:46 AM
As Florida’s homeowners, insurance companies, and companies that service loans in Hurricane Ian’s path, brace for the storm, lenders nationwide contin...
Wed, Sep 28 2022, 9:28 AM
Average mortgage interest rates increased significantly during the week ended September 23. As a result, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said t...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 5:27 PM
The monthly New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau is usually just "there"--one of several monthly housing-related reports that makes no promises ...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 4:19 PM
Beware The False Hope in MBS Today
MBS ended up with a nice little rally after 2pm that brought prices 3/8th...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 3:33 PM
Today brought the release of the two biggest home price indices (HPIs) for the month of July from S&P Case-Shiller and FHFA. Both HPIs showed a marke...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 1:49 PM
It's no mystery that mortgage rates have been moving relentlessly higher in 2022. But how high is high? That will depend on a number of factors, incl...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 12:19 PM
While there's no way to know exactly when it will happen, there's always some point at the end of an epic sell-off where prices have dropped enough to...
Tue, Sep 27 2022, 10:17 AM
Yesterday, before the yield on the risk-free U.S. 2-year note rose to 4.25 percent, I mentioned my cat Myrtle being offered a big signing bonus by the...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:52 PM
The most recent historical high water market for mortgage rates was "14 years." It was broken so many times in September that we officially declared ...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 4:23 PM
Why do US Rates Suddenly Care About The UK?
If you're just getting caught up, UK fiscal policy is probably a...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 11:36 AM
After a glimmer of hope at the end of last week, bonds are back to their old tricks. Actually, they only have one trick recently: selling-off at a fa...
Mon, Sep 26 2022, 9:18 AM
The big news in the Chrisman household is my cat Myrtle being offered a big signing bonus by the family next door. Apparently, word of her mousing pro...
Fri, Sep 23 2022, 4:44 PM
Let's Talk About Whether It's Time To Talk About Some Resilience
A large, rapid rate spike is frequently one...
Fri, Sep 23 2022, 12:40 PM
The positive close on a volatile Fed day offered false hope for rates--a fact that was laid bare with Thursday's massive sell-off. Now on Friday, mor...
Fri, Sep 23 2022, 9:33 AM
Tip-jar humor seen here in Chicago at a coffee shop: “Afraid of Change? Leave It Here.” Sure recessions typically mean lower rates, but are you okay w...
Thu, Sep 22 2022, 7:39 PM
At the close of business yesterday, there was hope. Well, to be fair, there's still hope, but it's much less immediate, and it certainly isn't the fi...
Thu, Sep 22 2022, 3:30 PM
Why So Much Selling Today Instead of Yesterday?
Today is one of those interesting and massive selling sprees...
Thu, Sep 22 2022, 11:47 AM
The market made it through yesterday's Fed announcement in deceptively sideways fashion as far as bonds were concerned. 7-10yr Treasuries managed mod...
Thu, Sep 22 2022, 10:24 AM
All eyes have been on the Federal Reserve this year, but for independent mortgage banks, the focus has been on maximizing production and minimizing ov...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 6:15 PM
The Fed hiked rates today by 0.75%, and mortgage rates moved lower. If you don't understand how those two things can happen on the same day, read thi...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 6:01 PM
Stunningly Sideways After an Important Fed Day
By the time the Fed announcement rolled around, the financ...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators of point to modest growth in spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job production. Job gains have been robust in...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 12:42 PM
Seven straight months of slowing sales has reduced existing home transactions by nearly 20 percent from the same point in 2021. The National Associat...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 9:59 AM
The following is a copy and paste from a previous piece that always bears repeating on Fed day. If you've seen it before, there's nothing new here. ...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 9:42 AM
It’s Fed decision day today and another 75-basis point rate hike is expected. Mortgage rates have surged to 14-year highs, deterring both buyers and b...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 9:29 AM
Mortgage application activity increased for the first time in six weeks during the period ended September 16 although the prior week had been shortene...
Wed, Sep 21 2022, 8:57 AM
There continue to be headlines regarding some sort of "mobilization" of troops with the most recent seeing Putin claim that the West is threatening Ru...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 4:02 PM
Since last week's inflation data, mortgage rates have pushed up to new 14 year highs every single day--not even "almost" every day, but every last one...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 3:45 PM
Here's What Matters on Fed Day
Bonds sold off some more today because why not?! 10yr yields were more invol...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 10:23 AM
The overnight session was frustrating exercise in "position-squaring," which is a term we often use as a sort of generic, hifalutin way of saying "tha...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 10:19 AM
One issue currently facing the mortgage industry is a lack of supply, or as rapper Cardi B said over the weekend in her analysis of high home prices a...
Tue, Sep 20 2022, 10:15 AM
Residential construction numbers were mixed in August. Home builders apparently worked on drawing down their backlogs of permits rather than seeking ...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 5:29 PM
Mortgage rates had another moderately bad day to start the new week. The unfortunate thing about moderately bad days that occur when rates were alrea...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 4:22 PM
Bond Buyers on Strike Until They Hear From The Fed
There were a few way the run up to this week's Fed announ...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 1:32 PM
The National Association of Home Builder’s (NAHB’s) index measuring the confidence of builders in the new home market has fallen for the ninth straigh...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 11:20 AM
It's an understatement to say that "all eyes are on the Fed" this Wednesday as the committee meets to decide whether to hike 75 vs 100bps, among other...
Mon, Sep 19 2022, 10:02 AM
In the words of former Vice President Dan Quayle, “We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur.” Around the world, soaring borrowi...
Fri, Sep 16 2022, 5:08 PM
Traders Hit Snooze Button, With Next Alarm Set For Fed Day
Nothing really happened in the bond market today ...
