Tue, Apr 19 2016, 9:23 AM
bond markets still holding the range, but pressure is increasing
momentum studies are close to confirming negative shift
Tradeflows , technic...
Tue, Apr 19 2016, 4:22 PM
Today could have been better and worse.
Bright note: 10yr yields still holding under 1.80, mortgage rates are unchanged.
Sour note: 10's bar...
Tue, Apr 19 2016, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates held steady again today , despite some weakness in underlying bond markets. When it comes to setting rates for the day lender rate sh...
Mon, Apr 18 2016, 10:13 AM
2 separate narratives this week: market movement and housing data
tall order for housing data to drive market movement, except in extreme cases
...
Mon, Apr 18 2016, 5:26 PM
Most of last week's trading pushed rates slightly higher (i.e. short positions)
Short positions were covered before the weekend, helping rates fall...
Mon, Apr 18 2016, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates held steady today , leaving them just off the lowest levels in nearly three years. Market conditions were somewhat volatile surroundi...
Fri, Apr 15 2016, 9:31 AM
One explanation for bonds' recently negative trend could have to do with stocks
Not a direct correlation, but big-picture developments could affe...
Fri, Apr 15 2016, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates improved slightly today , bringing them back toward the lowest levels in nearly three years. With all of the headlines to that effect ...
Thu, Apr 14 2016, 8:29 AM
Positive trend in bonds that began in mid March is over
a break above 1.80% in 10yr yields would reinforce creation of new negative trend
CPI ...
Thu, Apr 14 2016, 4:20 PM
European bond markets helped push Treasuries weaker overnight
10yr yields hovered near 1.80%, the upper end of the recent range
Once again, econ...
Thu, Apr 14 2016, 3:26 PM
It's that time again! Thursday rolls around and Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey. Most major media outlets subsequently craft he...
Wed, Apr 13 2016, 8:30 AM
The recent downtrend is broken
The slightly broader sideways range is now close to being broken
Retail Sales may decide the fate of the range
...
Wed, Apr 13 2016, 5:23 PM
Momentum was weaker into the morning
European bond gains helped Treasuries hold under supportive ceiling
Stocks kept arguing for bond weakness, ...
Wed, Apr 13 2016, 4:41 PM
Mortgage rates pulled up just slightly today after spending the past few days near 3-year lows. The weakness in rates is in line with our discus...
Tue, Apr 12 2016, 9:22 AM
What's a Bund and why does it matter? (Hint: the benchmark for European bond markets)
Bunds and Treasuries threatening to bounce to high side of...
Tue, Apr 12 2016, 5:39 PM
Stocks and oil still questionable as primary motivators for bonds
European bonds and Treasuries suffered a tradeflow/technical reversal
Stocks a...
Tue, Apr 12 2016, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates managed to hold steady today despite weakness in underlying bond markets. That means the rates being offered by lenders are subst...
Mon, Apr 11 2016, 9:10 AM
Week gets off to slow start with limited data and events on Mon
Tuesday brings several Fed speakers, but not much data
Data ramps up by Wed with...
Mon, Apr 11 2016, 4:21 PM
Bonds were weaker overnight and lost more ground early
intermediate range boundaries held (1.755 in 10yr yields) as a ceiling
Bonds came back q...
Mon, Apr 11 2016, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates were little changed today , keeping them in line with the lowest levels in nearly 3 years. Specifically, there have only been 2-3 ...
Fri, Apr 8 2016, 9:10 AM
Light data day in the springtime: trading may be more about housekeeping than making any new bets on big-picture momentum
Trend has been positive f...
Fri, Apr 8 2016, 4:51 PM
Treasuries were under pressure from a correction in European markets (stocks and bond yields higher) overnight
MBS and Treasuries opened noticeably...
Fri, Apr 8 2016, 2:38 PM
Mortgage rates didn't necessarily improve today --some lenders were worse-off actually--but merely holding steady on average, rates are ending the...
Thu, Apr 7 2016, 9:23 AM
There's a lot of attention being paid to oil right now
There have been moments of correlation between oil and bond yields
How much of the relati...
Thu, Apr 7 2016, 5:30 PM
European stock weakness/bond strength ruled the day
Treasuries, stocks, oil, all followed Europe until Europe closed, then went their own ways
G...
Thu, Apr 7 2016, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today , but not by much. Bond market levels typically dictate mortgage rate changes in fairly short order. Oftentimes...
Wed, Apr 6 2016, 9:22 AM
Bonds were weaker into the March 16th FOMC meeting, but that marked a turning point
It also marked a turning point for European bond markets, which...
Wed, Apr 6 2016, 4:58 PM
Bonds weaker WAY before Fed Minutes
Oil, stocks and European bonds hurt Treasuries overnight
Oil kept pressure on with 10:30am inventory data ...
Wed, Apr 6 2016, 4:10 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher today , pulling away from yesterday's long-term lows. Today's move wasn't extreme, by any means. It simply brings ra...
Tue, Apr 5 2016, 9:13 AM
The past few days of consolidation had a bullish tilt
Meaning: when yields broke out of a narrowing pattern, it was slightly more likely to be a p...
Tue, Apr 5 2016, 5:28 PM
Not only have bonds confirmed the recent move back into "the range," they've kept going strong
10yr yields hit 1.72, down 4.2bps, Fannie 3.0s up to...
Tue, Apr 5 2016, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today , continuing the recent trend of improvement. Investors are feeling more cautious after Fed Chair Janet Yellen e...
Mon, Apr 4 2016, 9:19 AM
Bonds continue to defy critics with 10yr yields in the 1.7's into Q2
We can't really say "it's stocks" anymore
Oil is still part of the motivati...
Mon, Apr 4 2016, 7:01 PM
MBS and Treasuries both relatively flat on the day; light volume too
Boston Fed's Rosengren struck a hawkish tone (headwind #1)
Corporate bond i...
Mon, Apr 4 2016, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates stayed steady today , beginning the first full week of April right in line with the lowest levels in roughly 6 weeks, depending on ...
Fri, Apr 1 2016, 8:30 AM
bonds have obviously been 'up to something' since Yellen's speech
it could be that traders are showing their hands early for the next momentum move...
Fri, Apr 1 2016, 6:48 PM
MBS and Treasuries both end nearly unchanged after some intraday volatility
10's traded a range of 1.762 to 1.814. Fannie 3.0s 102-17 to 102-24
...
Fri, Apr 1 2016, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates continued lower today , despite a fairly strong showing in the Employment Situation report. The so-called 'jobs report' is the mos...
Thu, Mar 31 2016, 9:46 AM
Month-end means bond traders are adjusting portfolios to match a published index
The index was a bit less friendly than expected yesterday, and bon...
Thu, Mar 31 2016, 5:37 PM
No NFP anxiety, markets are all about preparing for April
Traders think stocks will suffer and bonds will pick up the slack
Dovish Yellen helped...
Thu, Mar 31 2016, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates dropped again today, continuing a recent trend of improvement and bringing us to the best levels seen since March 1st. Market vol...
Wed, Mar 30 2016, 8:23 AM
Yellen rally set off positive technicals
"Technicals" refers to mathematical interpretation of market movement based only on the previous market mo...
Wed, Mar 30 2016, 5:44 PM
markets continue repricing rate hike expectations
shorter duration debt wins (2yr Treasuries beating 10yr)
MBS are shorter duration than 10yr, s...
Wed, Mar 30 2016, 5:20 PM
Mortgage rates held steady in most cases today, though several lenders continued to improve. The average lender is at least down to 3.75% in t...
Tue, Mar 29 2016, 9:00 AM
On these NFP weeks, one of the concepts we routinely discuss is that of the " pre-NFP lead-off. " Just to make sure we're on the same page, the "lead...
Tue, Mar 29 2016, 5:42 PM
Translating Yellen's speech today: not only is the Fed "data dependent," but it doesn't take much to deter hikes and even to contemplate ways to ease ...
Tue, Mar 29 2016, 5:00 PM
Mortgage rates moved decisively lower today, following a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. While she accomplished it in several ways, Yellen's...
Mon, Mar 28 2016, 8:49 AM
As bond markets continued to grind sideways, seemingly unable to (or "not yet willing?") to break below some key technical levels (see chart), this we...
Mon, Mar 28 2016, 7:12 PM
Quiet overnight trading session with European markets closed
Economic data was mixed and left bond markets generally uninspired
Treasuries and M...
Mon, Mar 28 2016, 5:22 PM
Mortgage rates were decidedly mixed today, depending on the lender. Some were in better shape compared to last Thursday (markets were closed on ...
