Tue, Mar 1 2016, 7:31 AM
Whether you fancy a tug-o-war analogy, or perhaps even a good old case of dueling banjos, US bond markets have been in the middle of a relative batt...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 5:44 PM
Stock rally hurts bonds
Even before that, corporate issuance added pressure
New March trading position-taking (and ultimately, profit-taking and...
Tue, Mar 1 2016, 5:03 PM
Mortgage rates moved quickly higher today, bringing them to levels not seen since early February. It continues to be the case that context is impor...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 9:12 AM
The relationship between short and long term yields is an important indicator for bond markets and the broader economy. 10yr yields are almost alwa...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 5:41 PM
It was a tremendously calm day for bond markets. In fact, 10yr yields held a range of 1.73 to 1.768--the narrowest of the entire year . Still, the ...
Mon, Feb 29 2016, 5:10 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower today, recovering only some of the weakness seen over the past several business days. Apart from last Friday, to...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 8:30 AM
Stocks and oil have had a big impact on bonds, but they're not the only story
Central bank rhetoric has been helping Treasuries hold ground when st...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 7:41 PM
After yesterday's strong performance it would have been nice to at least hold those gains. If that had happened, the bigger picture would look decid...
Fri, Feb 26 2016, 5:55 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher again today--this time at a slightly quicker pace--bringing averages up to the highest levels in at least a week. That ...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 7:34 AM
Over the past few days, we've seen bigger-than-normal intraday swings in bond markets. The day began with one trend in force only to end with tradi...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 5:32 PM
Data overlooked as bonds react to stocks/oil early
Bonds then ignore stock/oil rally later in the day and hold ground at stronger levels
Could ...
Thu, Feb 25 2016, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, and that leaves them much higher than the long-term lows seen 2 weeks ago. Of course "much" is a relativ...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 9:09 AM
10's have been bouncing at 1.71, secretly, overnight
It's breaking this morning and the next battle is clearly implied by early February trading pa...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 5:44 PM
Bonds start strong. Good MBS gains and a few positive reprices early
Everything went south as oil jumped off lows
Stocks jumped even higher and...
Wed, Feb 24 2016, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates generally held their ground today. In fact, rates were lower than yesterday's, on average, but quite a few lenders raised rates from...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 8:52 AM
Bond markets have been slightly weaker over the past few days, but overall, still arguably trading sideways inside a narrow range. Looked at in the m...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 5:12 PM
Sad start, but happy ending for bond markets
"Tradeflows" (the trading cues that remain after we take away any overt cues like economic data, headl...
Tue, Feb 23 2016, 4:22 PM
Mortgage rates experienced some volatility today, but ended up in slightly stronger territory on average. At first, rates were higher, as underlyin...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 9:04 AM
If you're just tuning in to 2016's bond market trends, it's been a good year so far. 10yr yields began around 2.30 and fell as low as 1.53 for a f...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 5:27 PM
Mortgage rates maintained recent sideways momentum today, holding inside a narrow range established last week. This range is particularly interesti...
Mon, Feb 22 2016, 5:09 PM
Modest losses for Treasuries and MBS by the close
Should have been worse judging by stock/oil gains
Corporate bond supply was big--also typical...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 7:33 AM
I was hyperactively remarking to a mentor back in the day about how things were happening in markets almost exactly as I thought they would. I was ex...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 5:25 PM
Today was a fine day for bond markets. There were no significant gains or losses by the closing bell, and indeed no real drama in between. Treasur...
Fri, Feb 19 2016, 4:17 PM
Mortgage rates improved slightly today, on average, despite modest weakness in underlying bond markets. We discussed this possibility yesterday in ...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:39 AM
Rates fight to hold under important long-term ceiling (marked by 1.84% in 10yr yields)
Assessing possibility that last week was a long-term bounce ...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:09 PM
Mortgage rates finally held their ground today, earning back some of the ground lost over the past 3 days. While a substantial gap remains between ...
Thu, Feb 18 2016, 8:03 PM
Bonds unchanged overnight, then follow German Bunds toward lower yields mid-morning
Oil Inventory data hit oil prices and stocks, thus lubricating ...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 8:38 AM
Technical analysis refers to attempts to understand and predict financial market behavior based solely on financial markets themselves. Specifically,...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 5:47 PM
Bond markets began the overnight session in fine shape, but soon succumbed to a steamroller of equity market positivity in the European session. Ri...
Wed, Feb 17 2016, 4:44 PM
Mortgage rates were just a bit higher in most cases today, although some lenders were effectively unchanged from yesterday. If you happened to stop...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 8:15 AM
The new, holiday-shortened week begins in much the same fashion as the previous week ended: with bond markets considering whether they are under press...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 5:23 PM
When you have a day as weak as last Friday was, the most informative subsequent trading session is one that is either similarly weak or strongly posit...
Tue, Feb 16 2016, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates continued slightly higher today, further distancing themselves from last week's 1-yr lows. The average lender continues to quote c...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 9:43 AM
As we all know, the MBS market is personified by a big green dragon . So far in 2016, the dragon has been breathing plenty of fire. Less publicize...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 4:10 PM
Day's like today can't hep but give the average market watcher a bit of a sinking feeling . Was that it? Was yesterday's visit to the lowest yields...
Fri, Feb 12 2016, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates rose rapidly today, relative to their average intraday movement potential. Things have been far from average, of course, and so it ...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 7:34 AM
Stocks and bond yields ignited a fiery romance in 2016, not letting each other out of sight for almost the entire month of January. That is to say,...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 6:56 PM
Bond markets came thundering in to the domestic trading session today, largely following equally thunderous moves in equities and European stock/bon...
Thu, Feb 11 2016, 5:22 PM
Mortgage rates were widely available at 3.5 percent for much of the day today. At any other time from the middle of 2013 through the end of 2015, ...
Wed, Feb 10 2016, 7:34 AM
Who has the mic? Who's wielding the pen? Whose opinion are you digesting as you build your sense of what "they" think is going to happen? If you're...
Wed, Feb 10 2016, 5:28 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged today, but did manage to gain just a bit of ground. That means another 1-year low, technically, although many lenders...
Wed, Feb 10 2016, 5:17 PM
To be fair to Fed Chair Yellen, it was too much to ask of her to concoct some secret combination of words that would magically help stem the tide of r...
Tue, Feb 9 2016, 7:34 AM
"It's the middle of the night on February 8-9th 2016, and 10yr yields are trading in the mid 1's."
That's not a phrase many people thought they'd ...
Tue, Feb 9 2016, 4:57 PM
Stock prices and bond yields closed at their lowest levels in more than a year yesterday. Today was largely spent consolidating that move. With Ch...
Tue, Feb 9 2016, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates kept moving lower today as global financial markets remain in distress. This time around, the improvement wasn't as much about the b...
Mon, Feb 8 2016, 7:34 AM
Depending on your point of view, this could end up being the most interesting week of the year for bond markets. If that turns out to be the case, ...
Mon, Feb 8 2016, 5:43 PM
Forget oil--mostly. There's a new bad boy in town over the weekend, and he's making just the sort of mess that Treasuries and MBS like to see. To ...
Mon, Feb 8 2016, 5:08 PM
Mortgage rates dropped significantly today, officially hitting the lowest levels in almost exactly 1 year. For most lenders, that means a conventio...
Fri, Feb 5 2016, 8:25 AM
First thing's first: NFP always reserves the right to move markets, even on occasions when it arguably shouldn't matter. Over the years, so many trad...
Fri, Feb 5 2016, 5:54 PM
Markets were confused by today's jobs data--at least bond markets were. The 151k vs 190k miss on headline NFP was ostensibly offset by the improvem...
