Wed, Jun 17 2015, 12:50 PM
Should I lock or float? Should I be advising clients to lock or float? Is the Fed going to help or hurt rates?
2 of these 3 common pre-Fed que...
Wed, Jun 17 2015, 7:34 AM
Market participants and pundits alike knew that the Fed wouldn't hike rates at the April meeting. Even then , that meeting served as the starting po...
Wed, Jun 17 2015, 5:20 PM
Mortgage rates had a wild ride today. Underlying bond markets were significantly weaker leading up to the afternoon's Fed events. During this t...
Wed, Jun 17 2015, 4:42 PM
Today turned out to be a fun little diversion for US traders. It's as if they were turned loose to play in the sandbox without the oversight of their...
Tue, Jun 16 2015, 12:16 PM
Europe has been in the driver's seat throughout the day as far as domestic bond markets are concerned. While Treasuries were doing fairly well as the...
Tue, Jun 16 2015, 7:33 AM
Let's see... What can we talk about other than tomorrow's FOMC events? I sprinkled Fed references into headlines as early as last week because, apar...
Tue, Jun 16 2015, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates moved only slightly lower today, belying the amount of positive market movement in the mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) that nor...
Tue, Jun 16 2015, 4:54 PM
Nice rally today. 10yr yields hit their lowest levels since June 5th and MBS hit their 'roll-adjusted' highs over the same time frame. Gains were in...
Mon, Jun 15 2015, 12:17 PM
The overnight and early domestic sessions were both strongly positive for bond markets. A more substantive Greek debt impasse kicked off the overni...
Mon, Jun 15 2015, 7:33 AM
This is one of the biggest weeks of the year. The main reason for that is Wednesday's series of FOMC events. At every other meeting, the Fed adds ...
Mon, Jun 15 2015, 6:24 PM
The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates , but changes in Fed policy are more than capable of sending shockwaves
through the markets that affect mo...
Mon, Jun 15 2015, 6:21 PM
Markets were abuzz --relatively speaking--with overnight news that the latest hopes for a Greek debt deal were dashed over the weekend. This was the...
Fri, Jun 12 2015, 7:33 AM
Yesterday was great! While we could poke holes in motivation for such a big rally by pointing out that it began from the weakest levels in 8 months...
Fri, Jun 12 2015, 6:10 PM
Mortgage rates looked like they might come down a bit today. The morning hours were generally positive for bond markets, including mortgage-back...
Fri, Jun 12 2015, 5:25 PM
Due to the timing of today's weakness and the necessity of a few alerts on MBS Live , the mid-day commentary was out later than normal. By the time ...
Fri, Jun 12 2015, 2:22 PM
Bond markets began the day in weaker territory , following a pull-back in European bond markets overnight. The tenor would soon change as the the ru...
Thu, Jun 11 2015, 12:49 PM
There's a nice rally underway today, with 10yr yields down 6.2bps and Fannie 3.5s up just over 3/8ths of a point. The underlying motivation is an eve...
Thu, Jun 11 2015, 7:32 AM
Every time we have a big, nasty sell-off --not the garden variety 15-20bps over a few days, but kind that takes 60bps higher in several weeks and sti...
Thu, Jun 11 2015, 5:24 PM
Mortgage rates were at their highest levels since early October as of yesterday afternoon, and in general, have been in the throes of the most aggr...
Thu, Jun 11 2015, 5:24 PM
Given the pace and scope of recent bond market weakness, there are more than a few traders that have open bets on rates moving higher--aka "shorts." ...
Wed, Jun 10 2015, 7:33 AM
It's been a while since we've had a good, old-fashioned MBS chart . There's no particular reason for that. It's just that Treasuries have been and ...
Wed, Jun 10 2015, 5:26 PM
Another day, another chance for bond markets to continue their selling spree. It began in a bad way, no matter when you woke up . Asian markets onl...
Wed, Jun 10 2015, 5:25 PM
Mortgage rates continued pressing into new highs for 2015. Most lenders are now quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates 4.25% on top tier scenarios....
Wed, Jun 10 2015, 1:20 PM
The financial world is abuzz yet again with Greek debt deal headlines. And yet again, they are almost completely meaningless . Before you say to yo...
Tue, Jun 9 2015, 12:56 PM
The pain continues for bond markets, as does the phenomenon of movement being driven by the unseen hand . In other words, there hasn't been any sign...
Tue, Jun 9 2015, 7:34 AM
The most striking features of last month's trading levels were the clearly defined consolidations in rates, both at home and abroad. Not only were th...
Tue, Jun 9 2015, 5:31 PM
On an intraday basis, trading levels in Treasuries and MBS hit their weakest levels of the year today. The biggest moves of the day happened at 8:...
Tue, Jun 9 2015, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back up to the highest levels of 2015 today. Yet again, it was a frustrating and seemingly serendipitous move, unable to be...
Mon, Jun 8 2015, 12:43 PM
Bond markets were mixed overnight with European yields rising slightly and US yields falling slightly. This could be chalked up, rather simply, to th...
Mon, Jun 8 2015, 7:34 AM
The European-led move lower in yields that began in early 2014 was like nothing we've seen in more than a decade. In terms of the market momentum it...
Mon, Jun 8 2015, 4:54 PM
Thanks for reading, this has been my attempt to write a headline that made absolutely no one want to click and read the story. But facts are facts, a...
Mon, Jun 8 2015, 3:46 PM
Mortgage rates were just slightly lower today, but only erased a small portion of Friday's move to 2015 highs. Friday notwithstanding, today's rat...
Fri, Jun 5 2015, 7:35 PM
If we went back to the beginning of June and asked ourselves "where do we think 10yr yields would be on Friday if Draghi doesn't commit to maintaining...
Fri, Jun 5 2015, 7:25 AM
NFP day is great. Nothing causes more widespread speculation on how a certain piece of economic data will report and how markets might react. Someti...
Fri, Jun 5 2015, 5:12 PM
Mortgage rates are officially having a bad June. It's not quite as bad as February, but February began with rates very close to all-time lows, and...
Fri, Jun 5 2015, 1:43 PM
Bond markets tanked after NFP this morning. This sort of thing is to be expected when payrolls print 280k vs a 225k forecast (and a 201k ADP print ...
Thu, Jun 4 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday was a bad day. If you need to revisit it, or if you happened to knock yourself unconscious the first time or two you fell out of your chai...
Thu, Jun 4 2015, 5:25 PM
Most of today's trading activity was a function of previous trading--at least as far as the domestic session was concerned. If we count the overnight...
Thu, Jun 4 2015, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates bounced back ever-so-slightly today, ultimately doing very little to erase the damage done so far this week. The most prevalently-q...
Thu, Jun 4 2015, 1:03 PM
At the end of this morning's commentary, I discussed the possibility that the past few days have been an over-correction to May's month-end strength, ...
Wed, Jun 3 2015, 7:07 AM
By the time you read this, things may already have gotten serious. The ECB announcement is at 7:45am Eastern, and although global markets are highly ...
Wed, Jun 3 2015, 6:18 PM
Mortgage rates had an awful day today , and they were among the lucky ones. The true pain emanated from Europe, as has been the case so many times ...
Wed, Jun 3 2015, 5:37 PM
If you missed it, or are otherwise looking for a recap on why bond markets got crushed today, here it is . Nothing materially changed from that up...
Wed, Jun 3 2015, 1:00 PM
This morning's commentary said " things get serious ," and that we could well expect to depart the recent range in a big way . Now, we are. 10yr yie...
Tue, Jun 2 2015, 7:34 AM
On some occasions, we look ahead to big-ticket events like central bank announcements and NFP reports with more anticipation and anxiety than they des...
Tue, Jun 2 2015, 5:25 PM
Mortgage rates jumped significantly higher today, bringing most lenders to their highest levels of 2015. The most prevalently-quoted conventional ...
Tue, Jun 2 2015, 5:20 PM
Bond markets were in bad shape right from the outset today. By the end of it, 10yr yields had fully traversed THE range laid out in this morning's ...
Tue, Jun 2 2015, 1:50 PM
In terms of the event calendar, today was supposed to be quiet. One of the wild cards laid out in this morning's commentary was an unexpected head...
Mon, Jun 1 2015, 7:34 AM
Last week helped the month of May recover a few shreds of its dignity. As hard as it is to believe, it was the first week in 2015 where each day's cl...
Mon, Jun 1 2015, 5:33 PM
Welcome to the 1st half of 2015. This is the 6 month period where European interest rates defied even the most bullish expectations after Europe bega...
