Tue, May 12 2015, 7:34 AM
In some ways and in some instances , past precedent can have some sort of predictive value. 9 times out of 10 though, it's only the sort of thing ...
Tue, May 12 2015, 5:17 PM
Who can forget this classic quip when asked why rates are higher: "more sellers than buyers?" OK, so maybe that's not so classic, depending on your...
Tue, May 12 2015, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates moved disconcertingly higher again today, despite the fact that underlying market levels actually improved during the day. Guaran...
Tue, May 12 2015, 1:29 PM
Bonds were horribly weaker yet again overnight, and the same old factors are in play. These aren't glamorous, satisfying to understand, or easy to ex...
Mon, May 11 2015, 7:34 AM
Bond markets sold-off too far and too fast heading into last week's jobs report. In fact, even by Thursday morning (overnight), the sell-off had reac...
Mon, May 11 2015, 5:42 PM
As I check my mental inventory of recent headline titles, I find it interesting and scary that the only other times that compare historically have bee...
Mon, May 11 2015, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates moved quickly
back to their recent highs today as investors race to reposition for a
perfect storm of risks. The biggest risk i...
Mon, May 11 2015, 1:39 PM
This isn't the most enjoyable way to begin the new week, but it was one of the options suggested by recent trends. Specifically, this option was the ...
Fri, May 8 2015, 7:34 AM
Today is probably the most interesting of the year when it comes to long term implications for domestic bond markets. If you think about it, things m...
Fri, May 8 2015, 4:54 PM
The game is not over. We didn't just miraculously win against all odds. The sell-off that's plagued bond markets for the past 2 weeks can't yet be...
Fri, May 8 2015, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates had been under heavy attack for several weeks before finally striking back yesterday. The counterattack could only go so far with...
Fri, May 8 2015, 1:27 PM
If you observe nothing else from anything I've written this week, it should be the calls for a technical correction on Wednesday and Thursday. Those ...
Thu, May 7 2015, 7:34 AM
Yesterday's morning commentary contained a chart and discussion on Treasury yields breaking above the upper bollinger band for 5 consecutive days....
Thu, May 7 2015, 5:33 PM
Before the Fed wrapped up QE purchases last year, the amount of movement we saw in the first few minutes of the day would have bordered on catastrophi...
Thu, May 7 2015, 4:54 PM
Mortgage rates finally dug in their heels and made some slight improvements today . For the past 4 days, they'd moved higher at the fastest pace ...
Thu, May 7 2015, 1:35 PM
Move over Pontiac. Bond market volatility is driving excitement.
While that may be one of the worst s entences I've ever written, it has the red...
Wed, May 6 2015, 7:34 AM
The sell-off is getting old , literally and figuratively. Of course it's old in the sense that no one likes it, but what about it's objective age?
...
Wed, May 6 2015, 5:16 PM
Bonds sold off again. Don't look so surprised.
Yes, ADP data was weaker than expected, but it didn't matter due to pervasively weaker momentum ...
Wed, May 6 2015, 3:54 PM
Mortgage rates are having a rough couple of weeks. Yesterday saw rates approach the previous 2015 highs set on March 6th. Today's rates moved s...
Wed, May 6 2015, 1:38 PM
You'll notice an ongoing theme over the past few weeks as we talk about the selling pressure in bond markets, and that is that this sell-off should be...
Tue, May 5 2015, 7:34 AM
Everywhere you look, pundits are slamming the bond market , both at home and abroad. This is usually the first sign that we're about to bounce back ...
Tue, May 5 2015, 6:11 PM
Bond markets sold off again today, though it wasn't necessarily destined to be the case. In other words, it actually took several events working to...
Tue, May 5 2015, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates haven't been able to catch a break recently. Case in point, over the past 3 weeks, there have only been two days where rates manage...
Tue, May 5 2015, 1:22 PM
Ever have one of those days where it seems that the odds are hopelessly stacked against you? That's the sort of week and a half that bond markets hav...
Mon, May 4 2015, 7:34 AM
After rising to the highest side of the long term trend last week, yields have a chance to explode higher, or re-commit to the range this week. "Expl...
Mon, May 4 2015, 5:29 PM
The last 5 days have been ugly for bond markets--not quite as the beginning of February, but this time around, we aren't bouncing off multi-year lows....
Mon, May 4 2015, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates continued higher today, extending a troubling move up to the highest levels since early March. Normally, movement in domestic inter...
Mon, May 4 2015, 1:28 PM
With UK and Japan bank holidays, cash Treasuries didn't really have an overnight session (London and Tokyo are the hubs for Treasury trading during th...
Fri, May 1 2015, 12:16 PM
Treasuries and MBS are at the weakest levels in exactly a month and a half. The time frame preceding the March FOMC Announcement saw markedly weaker ...
Fri, May 1 2015, 7:32 AM
Yesterday's morning headline asked if the recent move was weak enough that we should expect a bounce or so weak that it suggested further selling. In...
Fri, May 1 2015, 4:35 PM
Today wasn't necessarily a worst-case-scenario for bond markets, but it was reading from the same script. It's the version of the story where the e...
Fri, May 1 2015, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates are in the midst of a serious move higher . This requires some context though, because not all serious moves higher are the same. ...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 12:37 PM
During yesterday's bond market rout, a lousy reading on domestic data (GDP) effectively did nothing to stem the tide of overnight weakness. Today, th...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 7:32 AM
There are two ways to approach the weakness in bond markets over the past two days, and before we discuss them, I should warn you that I don't know ...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 4:45 PM
Mortgage rates held their ground today, and in some cases, managed to improve after yesterday's rout. This result was far from guaranteed during t...
Thu, Apr 30 2015, 4:43 PM
After defying overnight pressure from European bond markets to open in stronger territory, domestic bond markets were soon facing their own pressure ...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 7:34 AM
Atonal... without tone. That's what bond markets have been for nearly 6 weeks following the last FOMC Announcement. While today's is not the variety...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates moved firmly up to the highest levels since March 17th. Incidentally, there was a Fed Announcement on March 18th and another Fed An...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 5:07 PM
Heading into today, the afternoon's FOMC Announcement had the first right of refusal when it came to moving markets. As it happened, it was the morni...
Wed, Apr 29 2015, 1:13 PM
GDP was super weak (0.2 vs 1.0 forecast) and all of the important internal components were weaker as well. So naturally, bond markets rallied on the ...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 7:33 AM
We've made it! This will be the last day of the excruciatingly narrow range that we began discussing more than 2 weeks ago (the range itself is at le...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 4:47 PM
It was a fairly ugly day for bond markets. MBS are down nearly a half point. Most lenders repriced negatively at least once, and rate sheets are a...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates made it right to the doorstep of tomorrow's big-ticket events with very little movement over the past 5-6 weeks. Once at the door...
Tue, Apr 28 2015, 1:35 PM
Consumer Confidence numbers were much weaker than expected this morning at 95.2 vs 102.5 forecast. Normally, this would be a big benefit for bonds. ...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 7:32 AM
After a generally quiet week just passed, the week ahead offers significantly more market movement potential. There's more economic data, and several...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 4:37 PM
As has been the case on so many Monday's lately, today would have been better-used as a 3rd day of the weekend. Fannie 3.0s were 102-09 at their lowe...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 3:55 PM
Mortgage rates haven't been moving much lately, and today was no exception .
Some lenders were a hair better than Friday while others were just...
Mon, Apr 27 2015, 1:08 PM
Domestic bond markets are as quiet as quiet can be today. The silence was most deafening at the start of the overnight session where the range was ...
Fri, Apr 24 2015, 12:24 PM
The most notable feature of today's trading session has been the weaker than expected components of the Durable Goods data. In other words, the hea...
Fri, Apr 24 2015, 7:33 AM
After the March 18th FOMC Announcement, bond markets rallied. 10yr yields went from 2.05 to 1.90 on that Wednesday. The following day, they sold of...
