Fri, May 30 2014, 4:57 PM
Today was a good test for MBS and Treasuries. It spoke volumes to the current state of play in bond markets: traders are afraid to get too short ah...
Fri, May 30 2014, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates continued slightly higher
today. This had more to do with a market-based continuation of
yesterday's momentum than it did wit...
Thu, May 29 2014, 12:53 PM
We've been talking a bit about how yesterday's impressive rally could have had something to do with positioning for today's GDP revision . The thoug...
Thu, May 29 2014, 7:51 AM
Before yesterday, a break below 2.47 in 10yr yields was less likely than remaining in a narrower range. The big breaks would logically have their bes...
Thu, May 29 2014, 5:35 PM
GDP came out much weaker than expected this morning and Jobless Claims were noticeably stronger than expected. Pending Home Sales were stagnant and d...
Thu, May 29 2014, 3:49 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in even better shape than yesterday, but market volatility prompted most lenders to raise rates in the afternoon .
...
Wed, May 28 2014, 11:57 AM
Things had been pretty tame for MBS and Treasuries after the last round of excitement ended on May 15th. That was when the last major rally ended and...
Wed, May 28 2014, 7:39 AM
Even though yesterday had more going on in terms of scheduled events, today will likely see better participation among traders. The current order of...
Wed, May 28 2014, 4:53 PM
After starting the day just slightly stronger, and with absolutely nothing by way of major market-moving considerations, Fannie 3.5s moved up over hal...
Wed, May 28 2014, 3:28 PM
After tying the record for most consecutive days with no change, mortgage rates moved significantly lower today .
The significance isn't due t...
Tue, May 27 2014, 12:00 PM
Much like the magic that happens when you give an old wooden paddle-ball/string toy to a kid raised in the electronic generation, markets found a surp...
Tue, May 27 2014, 7:45 AM
A common quip on Wall Street is that financial markets will do what it takes to prove as many people wrong as possible. Variations of the same concep...
Tue, May 27 2014, 3:44 PM
Bond markets took their own sweet time getting back to business after the holiday weekend. Trading activity was lighter than normal and apart from ...
Tue, May 27 2014, 3:03 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher
this morning, but mid-day market improvements led many lenders to
adjust rates lower into the afternoon. T...
Fri, May 23 2014, 11:50 AM
Very little has happened so far on this holiday-shortened Friday (Monday's the holiday, but MBS/Treasuries close 3 hours early today). The lack of ac...
Fri, May 23 2014, 8:00 AM
In yesterday's recap, I mentioned that Treasuries have been trending higher in a 'fairly classic consolidation pattern' and that this was evidence tha...
Fri, May 23 2014, 1:24 PM
Mortgage rates didn't budge
today--not one little bit. It's one thing for lenders to be adjusting
rate sheets at various points in the day, be...
Thu, May 22 2014, 12:08 PM
As we frequently discuss, 10yr yields are the best technical benchmark for how rates are moving even though mortgage rates themselves are directly inf...
Thu, May 22 2014, 7:51 AM
Last week, bond markets shot the moon by improving substantially even when the odds were stacked against them. Those stacked odds consisted of stro...
Thu, May 22 2014, 3:48 PM
Markets close at 2pm tomorrow in observance of the Memorial Day Holiday, and will be fully closed on Monday. With that in mind, we've essentially mad...
Thu, May 22 2014, 2:58 PM
Mortgage rates ,
once again, are ending the day essentially unchanged compared to the
previous day. Morning rate sheets were in stronger territ...
Wed, May 21 2014, 12:38 PM
We haven't seen bond markets move this sideways all the way through morning hours in quite some time (weeks at least). 10yr yields have been within ...
Wed, May 21 2014, 8:00 AM
The drought of significant events this week finally ends today as the Fed releases the minutes from the April 29-30th policy-setting meeting. That me...
Wed, May 21 2014, 4:07 PM
Today's news was largely out yesterday: the Fed will probably reevaluate their exit strategy last spelled out in 2011--yes, the 2011 that was 3 years...
Wed, May 21 2014, 3:16 PM
Mortgage rates
held almost perfectly steady today, despite the potentially important
release of last month's meeting minutes from the FOMC (aka...
Tue, May 20 2014, 12:03 PM
In general, Treasuries--or better yet, 'overall bond market momentum'--leads and MBS follow. But it does happen the other way around sometimes. Toda...
Tue, May 20 2014, 8:00 AM
The first two days of the week have essentially no actionable data on the schedule. The effects were made painfully obvious yesterday as bond markets...
Tue, May 20 2014, 4:39 PM
Bond markets started the domestic session in line with yesterday's latest levels, which were also yesterday's lows. Trading levels maintained a somew...
Tue, May 20 2014, 3:37 PM
Mortgage rates
improved modestly today, making it back in line with Friday's levels.
These aren't the very best rates of 2014, but they're clo...
Mon, May 19 2014, 11:49 AM
Both Treasuries and MBS hit the 8am mark right in line with Friday's latest levels. As the domestic bond market session officially got underway with ...
Mon, May 19 2014, 7:55 AM
So far in the month of May, MBS have been making much bigger day to day moves than in April. But it's worth remembering that things can get a lot m...
Mon, May 19 2014, 4:06 PM
Heading into the last hour of trading, MBS have undone the past three days of gains. Such a statement is a bit more palatable when the MBS hit their ...
Mon, May 19 2014, 3:10 PM
Mortgage rates
began the day in roughly the same territory as Friday afternoon. Some
lenders were in slightly better shape while others were s...
Fri, May 16 2014, 12:54 PM
Thank goodness for a boring day. The alternatives would be that the mega-rally of the past two days extends further, which causes all sorts of probl...
Fri, May 16 2014, 7:54 AM
Despite an abundance of economic data yesterday, domestic bond markets were instead focused on navigating trading ranges past and present. The stron...
Fri, May 16 2014, 3:58 PM
Although it's true that bond markets moved into weaker territory after this morning's data, it's even more true that the weakness looks like a mere c...
Fri, May 16 2014, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates
were slightly higher today, continuing a move from yesterday that saw
most of the early gains evaporate by the end of the day. ...
Thu, May 15 2014, 12:37 PM
Even seasoned market-watchers might be thrown for a bit of a loop by today's surprisingly strong bond market rally. After all, we just had a surprisi...
Thu, May 15 2014, 8:00 AM
Today is by far and away the busiest day of economic data this week. This presents a good opportunity to feel out what's important to the bond market...
Thu, May 15 2014, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates
kept moving lower today as European markets continued to provide an
unexpectedly large boost in demand for domestic bond markets...
Thu, May 15 2014, 4:11 PM
To be fair to the entire bond market, Treasuries actually didn't fade that much. After making it into the 2.47's, 10yr yields are drifting sideways...
Wed, May 14 2014, 12:08 PM
Even if we were being as pessimistic as possible and making every excuse for the 2014 trading range, there's no way to put a caveat on today's levels....
Wed, May 14 2014, 7:51 AM
Heading into the end of last week, bond markets were like a space shuttle preparing for launch. The earth was like a 10yr Treasury yield at 2.57 and ...
Wed, May 14 2014, 5:31 PM
Even though mortgage rates hit multi-month lows several times in the past 2 weeks, today is significant in that Treasuries finally broke the range. S...
Wed, May 14 2014, 3:40 PM
Mortgage rates fell today
as the European Central Bank looks increasingly ready for a new round
of easing in June. More accommodative moneta...
Tue, May 13 2014, 12:00 PM
MBS and Treasuries began the day in unchanged territory. There was a bit of a positive backdrop in place from overnight news that Germany's central b...
Tue, May 13 2014, 7:54 AM
Bond markets have arguably been trading in accordance with the mainstream technical suggestions. Specifically, there are several technical studies so...
Tue, May 13 2014, 3:57 PM
Until this morning, recent momentum in bond markets was clearly and cleanly pointing to a correction within the recent range, where rates would move h...
Tue, May 13 2014, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates
moved lower today after an especially weak report on Retail Sales
fueled demand for fixed-income investments like
mortgage-bac...
Mon, May 12 2014, 11:58 AM
It's been a slow morning so far, and utterly lacking in overt inspiration. More simply put, we haven't seen any movement in Treasuries or MBS linked ...
