Thu, Jul 20 2023, 5:02 PM
Some of today's news says mortgage rates are much lower than last week. And here I am telling you they're higher. Who should you believe? Easy one! ...
Thu, Jul 20 2023, 11:55 AM
Watching the bond market in real time can be stressful if you work in a highly rate-sensitive industry. There's a tendency to get caught up in the in...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:24 PM
Mortgage rates may have spiked to the highest levels in roughly 8 months two weeks ago, but they fully recovered as of last Thursday. Since then, ver...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 5:07 PM
Working Our Way Back to Powell
The last Fed meeting in June wasn't a huge market mover in and of itself, but...
Wed, Jul 19 2023, 11:51 AM
After bonds rallied hard last week, EU bonds began to rally harder. This was most noticeable in the current week where 10yr Bund yields fell all the ...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 4:33 PM
Mixed Reaction to Data. Range Remains Intact
European bonds set the tone in the overnight session after a no...
Tue, Jul 18 2023, 1:27 PM
Today's session was off to a stronger start thanks to a sharper rally in European bonds overnight, but domestic economic data pushed back early. This...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates jumped a bit higher last Friday after dropping triumphantly during the first four days of the week. That bounce may have cast some dou...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 4:17 PM
Slightly Stronger, Sideways, and Still Waiting
Monday's trading session offered little by way of anything si...
Mon, Jul 17 2023, 12:33 PM
With the heightened focus on economic data as a means to track progress on the Fed's inflation-fighting policies, and the reality of the data calendar...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 4:12 PM
Good Times Still Mostly Rolling Despite Token Correction on Friday
Bonds sold off on Friday, with the easies...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates spiked abruptly last week after several economic reports showed the economy doing better than expected. Now this week, key inflation da...
Fri, Jul 14 2023, 11:59 AM
Bonds rallied fairly hard during the first four days of the week, entirely restoring the ground lost in the previous week. Yesterday afternoon, we di...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 5:13 PM
Farther vs further... One is for distance and the other means "additional/additionally." The dictionary may disagree, but only because too many of y...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 4:58 PM
Willingness to Rally Without Much Motivation
Bonds put in a nice day of gains after a mixed performance in t...
Thu, Jul 13 2023, 11:50 AM
Thursday begins with 2 data points that could be traded either way. In one corner, we have another resilient reading in the Jobless Claims data (237k...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates had been moving higher fairly rapidly over the past 2 weeks with the average lender easily into the 7% range for a top tier conventiona...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 3:40 PM
Great Reaction to CPI, But What's Next?
Today's CPI data serves the important role of pushing back on the na...
Wed, Jul 12 2023, 10:49 AM
After plenty of anticipation over the past few days, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrived this morning with fairly good news for the bond market. C...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:48 PM
Bonds Will Rally After CPI (Or They'll Sell Off)
Let's not build up the upcoming CPI data too much. It's im...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 3:47 PM
While experts might be able to debate the underlying causes, they can all agree that inflation is the key reason that rates skyrocketed at the fastest...
Tue, Jul 11 2023, 9:43 AM
After last Friday's jobs report, it was clear that we'd be waiting for this Wednesday's CPI data as the next relevant input for the bond market. Desp...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 4:10 PM
The most important thing to know about mortgage rates so far this week is that they lived through last week. Living through last week means rates rea...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 3:53 PM
Sideways at Weak Levels Despite Monday's Rally
If we wanted to make the case for anything about the first tw...
Mon, Jul 10 2023, 11:30 AM
The week begins with bonds in modestly stronger territory after a bit of initial volatility. None of the trading after last Friday's NFP has mattered...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 6:10 PM
Until a few weeks ago, it looked like we might have seen the last of 7% mortgage rates, but the last 2 weeks have been brutal. The culprit has been a ...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 4:08 PM
NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally
Things could have gone better or worse today following t...
Fri, Jul 7 2023, 12:13 PM
Despite missing the forecast by just a bit, today's NFP number is largely as expected (209k vs 225k f'cast and unemployment 3.6 vs 3.6). Bonds initia...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:51 PM
It seems like just last week (because it was) we were commenting on the extreme LACK of volatility in the mortgage rate landscape. Starting last Thur...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 4:29 PM
Data Confirms Bond Market Fears
Yesterday's recap suggested that bonds were bracing for impact from incoming...
Thu, Jul 6 2023, 11:29 AM
We already know that bonds are especially sensitive to economic data right now, and we knew that today offered an uncommonly condensed schedule with s...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:59 PM
While the mainstream mortgage rate indices continue operating in the mid-to-upper 6% range, actual rates are moving higher into the 7% range by the ti...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 3:51 PM
Bonds Brace For Impact From Data
Bonds sold off somewhat abruptly on Wednesday with little by way of overt j...
Wed, Jul 5 2023, 12:00 PM
It may be Wednesday--a day that typically marks the midpoint of the bond market's work week--and it may be the week of the month with several of the b...
Mon, Jul 3 2023, 11:55 AM
Monday brings a courtesy trading day for bond market participants. Those who want/need to trade can do so while those who wanted the 4 day weekend do...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 4:20 PM
Month/Quarter-End Came Early
As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME clo...
Fri, Jun 30 2023, 9:27 AM
Whereas Thursday's data was clearly bad for bonds/rates (ultimately creating a challenge to the 3.84 range ceiling), Friday's key morning data is rela...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:50 PM
Despite other indices showing the average 30yr fixed rate in the 6.7 range, the actual average (after accounting for points) is once again over 7%. W...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 4:33 PM
Bonds Crushed by Data, But Technically Still in The Range
At many points in the past week, we've lamented th...
Thu, Jun 29 2023, 9:44 AM
Technical analysis provides an easy entry point for folks who want to talk about what the markets might do next. It is made all the more alluring due...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:25 PM
The bond market is waiting for bigger news on inflation and the economy, and traders aren't pretending otherwise. Why does that matter? Traders dete...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Modest Relief Rally as Headline Risk Comes and Goes
Unlike yesterday, bonds didn't have any market moving ec...
Wed, Jun 28 2023, 12:54 PM
Unlike yesterday, there is no meaningful economic data to move the needle this morning. Bonds continue biding their time, waiting for "meaningful." ...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:25 PM
Tuesday continued the same theme of incredibly modest movement inside an incredibly narrow range. The average lender is still just under 7% for a con...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 5:11 PM
Logical Weakness After Stronger Data
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot a...
Tue, Jun 27 2023, 11:29 AM
Forget "love." Today data hurts. Durable Goods fired a warning shot at 8:30am. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales finished the job at 10am. Wi...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:23 PM
Only So Many Ways to Say Sideways
It was an uneventful, boring, uninspiring, and unenlightening summertime M...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 4:03 PM
The average 30yr fixed mortgage rate has been holding just under 7% for the entire month, making June the least volatile month in well over a year. A...
Mon, Jun 26 2023, 12:46 PM
Here we are (still) with 30yr yields closer to 4% than 3%, economic growth softening, leading indicators pointing to further contraction, and inflatio...
Fri, Jun 23 2023, 5:17 PM
A majority of the housing market data on any given month tends to come out mostly on the same week. This was that week and the takeaway was that the h...
