Thu, May 13 2021, 3:49 PM
Supply Storm Weathered (Could Have Been Worse)
After yesterday's brisk sell-off in the bond market, today's ...
Thu, May 13 2021, 10:10 AM
Bonds are off to a much better start today vs yesterday (it wouldn't take much, consider yesterday was the worst day in 2+ months). This morning's pr...
Wed, May 12 2021, 4:35 PM
After bottoming out at 2 month lows late last week, mortgage rates have been heading higher. At first, the move was relatively gradual, but the pace i...
Wed, May 12 2021, 4:20 PM
Inflation Data Throws Down Gauntlet. Markets Panic
It's easy enough to imagine or even expect that near-term...
Wed, May 12 2021, 10:51 AM
After last Friday's weaker jobs report, bonds rallied at first, but then bounced into weaker territory in just a few hours. That failure meant bond y...
Tue, May 11 2021, 4:02 PM
Bonds Still Struggling. 10yr Staging For a Bigger Move?
After holding ground admirably overnight despite the...
Tue, May 11 2021, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates had enjoyed a solid little run for almost all of April and again in the first week of May. By last Thursday, they were at their lowest ...
Tue, May 11 2021, 10:08 AM
Bonds lost ground moderately yesterday and blame was most easily assigned to the broad notion of "supply." More specifically, a record-setting round ...
Mon, May 10 2021, 4:02 PM
Heavy Issuance Weighs on Bonds
We knew bonds would be skittish about Treasury auctions this week, but the de...
Mon, May 10 2021, 9:44 AM
The week gets off to a slow start without any significant data on tap for Monday or Tuesday. The Treasury auction cycle becomes more relevant on Wedn...
Fri, May 7 2021, 3:44 PM
Bonds Fail to Capitalize on Super Weak Jobs Report
Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 266k compared to a median for...
Thu, May 6 2021, 4:06 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today, bringing the average lender to the best levels since late February. Despite the milestone, the day-over-day movement...
Thu, May 6 2021, 3:50 PM
Lock/Float Considerations Ahead of Jobs Report
Bonds made it through Thursday without any notable volatility...
Thu, May 6 2021, 10:13 AM
Thursday kicked off with several potential bond market threats. Asian markets fired up again after a week of holidays. The influx of volume could ea...
Wed, May 5 2021, 3:42 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. On average, rates were unchanged and remained very close to their lowest levels in nearly 2 ...
Wed, May 5 2021, 3:35 PM
MBS Near 2-Month Highs After Tame Econ Data
Coming into this week, Friday's jobs report was our best chance ...
Wed, May 5 2021, 8:50 AM
The bond market isn't tasked with underwriting any new long-term Treasury supply today, but it will have to digest the most recent refunding announcem...
Tue, May 4 2021, 4:38 PM
Last week fired warning shots across the bow of April's mortgage rate rally. New month, new momentum? No, not just yet. In fact, we haven't seen much ...
Tue, May 4 2021, 4:01 PM
Earnings Season in Full Swing as Bonds Hold Range
Have you heard the one about Ferrari moving the bond marke...
Tue, May 4 2021, 9:04 AM
Have you heard the one about Ferrari moving the bond market? Well, now you have. In an apparent mystery move before the start of the domestic sessio...
Mon, May 3 2021, 4:01 PM
Logical Reaction to Data Sets Stage For Interesting Week
The week began with bond markets reacting to weaker...
Mon, May 3 2021, 9:50 AM
One of the most notable themes of the past year is the relative unwillingness on the part of the bond market to make a big fuss over individual econom...
Fri, Apr 30 2021, 6:08 PM
Uneventful Month-End Friday. Next Week Could Be Different
Bonds recovered modestly but respectably after st...
Fri, Apr 30 2021, 10:02 AM
Bonds are starting the day in decent shape with 10yr yields just slightly lower than yesterday's latest levels. The bigger story is MBS outperformanc...
Thu, Apr 29 2021, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Virtually every lender began the day with slightly higher rates, but most offered mid-day im...
Thu, Apr 29 2021, 3:59 PM
Awesome Bounce Back But Still a Cautionary Tale
Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several piece...
Thu, Apr 29 2021, 9:09 AM
Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several pieces of EU econ data came in much stronger than expected. Domestic data hasn't done anything...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 4:40 PM
The Federal Reserve released a new policy announcement today. This is one of the 8 times per year where the Fed can opt to change "rates," or adjust i...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 4:29 PM
Bonds Find Footing After Digesting Friendly Fed Message
Bonds were slightly cautious ahead of the Fed announ...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Apr 28 2021, 9:29 AM
Today's Fed announcement isn't likely to contain any major revelations for the bond market, nor to cause any significant volatility. Logical conclusi...
Tue, Apr 27 2021, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates have fallen almost every single day in April. By the end of last week, that meant the average lender was offering the lowest convention...
Tue, Apr 27 2021, 3:30 PM
Another Bad 7yr Auction Day, Even If We Can't Blame The Auction
Bonds were feeling a bit defensive ahead of ...
Tue, Apr 27 2021, 9:56 AM
7yr Treasury auctions haven't been great for bonds in 2021. Every time we've had one, bonds have sold off. In fact, the late February example proved...
Fri, Apr 23 2021, 2:49 PM
Winning Streak Thwarted, But Not By Much
This morning's Day Ahead pondered the possibility of a 4th straight...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 5:06 PM
Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels since March 2nd or 3rd (depending on the lender) yesterday and today they fell just a bit more. Most borrower...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 4:01 PM
Forget the ECB; Taxes Saved Bonds Today
First off, bonds didn't really need "saving." They were only modest...
Thu, Apr 22 2021, 10:04 AM
Today's only real significant market mover is/was the ECB Announcement and press conference. They weren't expected to change policy, but markets were...
Wed, Apr 21 2021, 3:39 PM
Last Thursday was the best day for mortgage rates in more than a month, and while they bounced back up on Thursday afternoon, they've been falling mod...
Wed, Apr 21 2021, 3:28 PM
4th Straight Day Inside Last Thursday's Range
Last Thursday was the best rally day we've seen in months and ...
Wed, Apr 21 2021, 10:04 AM
There are no major events on the econ calendar today and no compelling market movers in play so far this week--at least not for bonds. Stocks, on the...
Tue, Apr 20 2021, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in more than a month last Thursday, but reversed course later that afternoon. With that, it looked like rates w...
Tue, Apr 20 2021, 4:21 PM
Decent Day For Bonds as Stocks Sell
A good, old-fashioned "risk-off" rally has been hard to come by in 2021,...
Tue, Apr 20 2021, 9:39 AM
How can you avoid reading this prose when the headline is so gripping? Slow trading! Sideways grind! Lack of obvious near-term inspiration! If we'...
Mon, Apr 19 2021, 3:19 PM
Slow Start to a Potentially Slow Week.
Bonds did a good enough job of holding their ground today thus leavin...
Mon, Apr 19 2021, 10:02 AM
When the most recent leg of US bond market weakness began in February, US 10yr yields were around 1.1% and German Bund yields (effectively the "EU 10y...
Fri, Apr 16 2021, 5:21 PM
Still a Decent Week Despite Friday Slide
Thursday morning was exceptionally strong for bonds--perhaps too st...
Fri, Apr 16 2021, 10:06 AM
For virtually all of 2021 (and much of Q4 2020), we've been tracking an uptrend in Treasury yields. As the overall move grew to a size rarely seen in...
Thu, Apr 15 2021, 4:50 PM
It's no secret that mortgage rates had a rough month in March and a rough year in general. The average lender raised 30yr fixed rates by roughly half ...
Thu, Apr 15 2021, 3:56 PM
Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next?
Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore po...
