Thu, Apr 15 2021, 10:19 AM
Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore potentially stronger Retail Sales data. Not only did bonds overlook the big beat (9.8 vs 5....
Wed, Apr 14 2021, 4:44 PM
Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales
Retail Sales used to be a big ticket report, but like so many others, h...
Wed, Apr 14 2021, 10:09 AM
Yesterday was good for bonds with 10yr yields covering more ground toward lower yields during domestic trading hours than any other day since February...
Tue, Apr 13 2021, 4:04 PM
Slow and steady wins the race, and mortgage rates have been making slow, steady progress back down from recent long-term highs seen at the end of Marc...
Tue, Apr 13 2021, 4:03 PM
Strong Showing With Help From Vaccine Drama and a Solid Bond Auction
The day began with bonds falling back t...
Tue, Apr 13 2021, 9:01 AM
It's a sign of the times that the bond market responded with a modest rally following a stronger reading on CPI and a looming record-size 30yr bond au...
Mon, Apr 12 2021, 4:04 PM
Bonds Look Past Weaker Treasury Auction
Treasury auction have been more important than normal so far in 2021...
Mon, Apr 12 2021, 9:43 AM
Three weeks ago, the bond market made its first attempt to rally toward lower yields after ending the previous week bouncing at a ceiling of 1.75% in ...
Fri, Apr 9 2021, 4:40 PM
Respectable Recovery After Morning Drama
"Drama" may be a bit of an overstatement, but bonds were weak enoug...
Fri, Apr 9 2021, 10:50 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary, entitled "Stronger Case For Stability But Not Complacency" acknowledged the reassuringly sideways vibe offered by the ...
Thu, Apr 8 2021, 4:02 PM
Mortgage Rates had another decent day on Thursday with the average lender offering modestly better terms compared to yesterday. Improvements continue ...
Thu, Apr 8 2021, 4:00 PM
Stronger Case For Stability, But Not Complacency
With today's solid gains, this week becomes the best argume...
Thu, Apr 8 2021, 9:46 AM
2 weeks ago, we talked about 2021's Thursday curse. It was finally broken last week. Today's early gains mean we may be looking at a second consecut...
Wed, Apr 7 2021, 4:33 PM
Mortgage Rates have been doing pretty well so far in April. They bounced at long-term highs on March 31st (matching the highs from 2 weeks prior), but...
Wed, Apr 7 2021, 4:30 PM
No Reaction to Fed Minutes (Or Anything Else For That Matter)
It's been a light week in terms of scheduled d...
Wed, Apr 7 2021, 10:32 AM
The longer-term rising rate trend kicked into higher gear in February. After several false starts, bonds are in the midst of their best attempt yet a...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 4:25 PM
Things have been bad for mortgage rates in 2021. That assertion has nothing to do with the outright level of mortgage rates--indeed, that's still very...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 4:25 PM
Evidence For a Ceiling Continues to Accumulate
All the normal disclaimers are in order:
- This is a rising...
Tue, Apr 6 2021, 10:26 AM
Global financial markets are entirely open today for the first time since last Thursday, thus giving us a chance to see if this month's momentum will ...
Mon, Apr 5 2021, 3:57 PM
Rates Still Trying to Establish a Ceiling
The rising rate trend of 2021 is increasingly being called into qu...
Mon, Apr 5 2021, 9:59 AM
The rising rate trend of 2021 is increasingly being called into question--even if only temporarily--due to the inability of 10yr yields to quickly bre...
Fri, Apr 2 2021, 2:41 PM
Huge Jobs Numbers and a Logical (But Muted) Bond Reaction
There were "whisper" numbers earlier this week sug...
Fri, Apr 2 2021, 9:40 AM
There were "whisper" numbers earlier this week suggesting nonfarm payrolls could come in closer to 1 million as opposed to the median forecast of 647k...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates have been trying to find a ceiling in the past 3 weeks after rising at the quickest pace in years. That search seemed to be going well ...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 4:09 PM
Thursday Curse Broken. NFP Friday
Thursdays have been almost universally bad in 2021--a point that was drive...
Thu, Apr 1 2021, 10:55 AM
March's month/quarter-end trading got more credit than normal for moving markets in the past week or two. As such, it's fair to hope for April to bri...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today after failing to capitalize on a hopeful move in bond markets yesterday. Bonds--particularly mortgage-bac...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 4:21 PM
Month/Quarter-End Trading Refresher; More Stimulus Details
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. ...
Wed, Mar 31 2021, 11:10 AM
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. That means more for financial markets than it does for many other sectors. While there is no hard an...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 3:50 PM
There are a few interesting developments for mortgage rates today--especially in light of last week's striking discrepancy between Freddie's weekly su...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 3:49 PM
'Unchanged' Feels Like a Victory
Bonds began the day at the highest yields in more than a year and slowly wo...
Tue, Mar 30 2021, 9:36 AM
Bonds remain in the midst of a very large and sustained sell-off. Generally speaking, the rising rate environment is a logical byproduct of pande...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 4:27 PM
New Week, New Weakness
The new week wasted very little time in reinforcing the realities of 2021. This is a...
Mon, Mar 29 2021, 10:21 AM
Last week ended on a sour note with moderately brisk selling on Friday erasing what had been a relatively hopeful trend up until that point. Bonds co...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 5:14 PM
The biggest story for the mortgage and housing market so far in 2021 has been the big spike in mortgage rates. It has been more abrupt and covered mor...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 5:13 PM
Valiant Effort But This Week's Bounce-Back Effort Falls Short
Insult, meet injury? Oh, you're already acqua...
Fri, Mar 26 2021, 10:46 AM
1.62% has been one of the most important technical levels for 10yr yields in the past month. After breaking above last week, we had a chance to confi...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 3:37 PM
Thursday Curse Continues But It Was Still a Good Day for Bonds
Although bonds won't be able to say they b...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 2:52 PM
It's no secret that 2021 has been a rough year for mortgage rates so far. They've moved higher on all but a few weeks, and exclusively higher if we on...
Thu, Mar 25 2021, 10:06 AM
Today could be the day. If markets were to close right now, it would be the first day in 2021 where bonds could say they'd rallied 4 days in a row or...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates put in their 3rd decent performance of the week today amid relatively calm conditions in the underlying bond market. These sorts of win...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 3:44 PM
Decent Day Despite Lukewarm Treasury Auction. Dovish Fed Helps
This morning's weaker Durable Goods data had ...
Wed, Mar 24 2021, 9:27 AM
Bonds are starting the day in roughly unchanged territory after trying to go on a stronger run in the overnight session. If the remainder of the week...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower at a decent pace today for the 2nd day in a row. The average lender is still offering the same "note rate" compared to yest...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 3:33 PM
Strong Move Today. Need Confirmation in Coming Days
Bonds walked their own path today with gains overnight h...
Tue, Mar 23 2021, 10:40 AM
Fed Chair Powell will be in the hot seat again today, only this time in the form of congressional testimony on the CARES Act. The prepared remarks fo...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 4:24 PM
Not a Bad Day, But We Need More Convincing
Rates have tried to convince us that the worst is over on several...
Mon, Mar 22 2021, 9:51 AM
Last week was the 7th straight week of higher bond yields--something we haven't seen since Q2 2009, when bonds were undergoing their first correction ...
Fri, Mar 19 2021, 4:47 PM
Fed Confirms Market's Fear; Bonds Manage to Hold This Week's Range
The last time bonds sold off for 6 consec...
Fri, Mar 19 2021, 10:36 AM
Based on the number of times members have searched the term "SLR" on MBS Live in the past week, we'll go ahead and cover it here again. SLR = Supplem...
