Mon, Jul 12 2021, 3:56 PM
Still on a Fence as Bonds Work Through Early-Week Risks
We closed out last week on a fence about the short t...
Mon, Jul 12 2021, 9:18 AM
Last week ended on a bittersweet note as a surprisingly strong rally was met with big push-back on Friday. The jury was out as to whether we were wit...
Fri, Jul 9 2021, 2:23 PM
Bigger Picture Bounce or Just Another Pre-Weekend Pause
Bonds were moderately to sharply weaker overnight an...
Fri, Jul 9 2021, 1:37 PM
Even though rates rebounded to slightly higher levels on Friday, the week generally brought pleasant surprises as the mortgage market returned to leve...
Fri, Jul 9 2021, 9:17 AM
Big changes in the economic landscape bring big opportunities to consider whether bonds are priced where they should be. The entire spring and summer...
Thu, Jul 8 2021, 4:20 PM
Impressive Move to Longer-Term Lows. What's Next?
The centerpiece of today's global trading session was an ...
Thu, Jul 8 2021, 2:58 PM
With yesterday's mortgage rates already near longer-term lows, all it took was a modest improvement for today's rates to officially hit their best lev...
Thu, Jul 8 2021, 8:59 AM
A more and more vocal contingent of traders and analysts began calling for "1.25% before 1.75%" over the past 2 months and they were rewarded overnigh...
Wed, Jul 7 2021, 4:04 PM
Traders Shrug Off Fed Minutes to Keep buying Bonds
Hindsight is 20/20 and it now seems clear that traders we...
Wed, Jul 7 2021, 3:04 PM
Mortgage rates have fallen fairly consistently over the past 2.5 weeks with the past 2 days seeing some of the better improvements. There haven't been...
Wed, Jul 7 2021, 9:38 AM
Whether it's an imperfect catch-all term like "tradeflows," or a similarly imprecise reference to the "unseen hand," bonds often find motivation from ...
Tue, Jul 6 2021, 4:00 PM
Strong Start to a Slow Week
Bonds rallied today, both before and after the weak ISM Non-Manufacturing data. ...
Tue, Jul 6 2021, 9:36 AM
2021 began with heavy selling pressure in bonds following the Georgia senate election (which gave full control of congress and the White House to one ...
Fri, Jul 2 2021, 3:34 PM
What To Make of The Post-NFP Rally
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) beat forecasts (850k vs 700k), which is normally s...
Fri, Jul 2 2021, 9:03 AM
While the headline for nonfarm payrolls (850k vs 700k f'cast) seems like cause for concern at first glance, the bond market is digesting it well so fa...
Thu, Jul 1 2021, 4:24 PM
Mortgage rates have had several good weeks now after being dealt a blow by the Fed announcement on June 16th. Said "blow" is relative , to say the lea...
Thu, Jul 1 2021, 3:14 PM
Uneventful Start to Q3, But Tomorrow is a Wild Card
There's always some risk that the first trading day of a...
Thu, Jul 1 2021, 9:36 AM
The simple concept of timing is often underappreciated as a market mover. For instance, 820am and 3pm ET can often be sources of volatility simply be...
Wed, Jun 30 2021, 4:29 PM
Mortgage rates fell again today--now officially below the lowest levels in the past 2 weeks. In order to accomplish that, rates had to fully erase the...
Wed, Jun 30 2021, 4:11 PM
Failed Breakout Puts More Emphasis on End-of-Week Events
Notice that the headline didn't invoke "the jobs re...
Wed, Jun 30 2021, 9:41 AM
Some people may pine for Fridays due to the end of a work week, or perhaps as the start of an extended weekend (as is the case with the impending exam...
Tue, Jun 29 2021, 4:10 PM
Strong Data, But Even Stronger Sideways Grind
Bonds started the day in slightly weaker territory but moved v...
Tue, Jun 29 2021, 3:12 PM
Mortgage rates are primarily a function of trading levels in the bond market and bonds have enjoyed (or suffered) an interesting mix of volatility and...
Tue, Jun 29 2021, 9:21 AM
Since the 2nd week of June, the bond market has been operating in a fairly narrow range with trading momentum being largely flat in the bigger picture...
Mon, Jun 28 2021, 4:38 PM
Monday Giveth
Summertime weekend trading dynamics are sadly a source of motivation for bond markets--especia...
Mon, Jun 28 2021, 10:39 AM
This week brings good potential for volatility as Friday represents the confluence of several individual events that are normally worth some volatilit...
Fri, Jun 25 2021, 11:56 AM
Small, Defensive Shift Heading Into The Weekend
The highest core inflation in decades proved to be no big de...
Fri, Jun 25 2021, 10:07 AM
Much like the CPI data 2 weeks ago, today's PCE data showed the highest core inflation in decades. In fact, we'd have to go back almost 3 decades when...
Thu, Jun 24 2021, 3:26 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Data and Infrastructure Bill
The day began with a morning of lackluster econ data being...
Thu, Jun 24 2021, 10:22 AM
This week's supply of economic data is rapidly dwindling and we've yet to see a bond market reaction worth writing home about. This morning's crop pr...
Wed, Jun 23 2021, 3:58 PM
Sideways Grind Means More Focus on Next Jobs Report
As bonds continue to distance themselves from last week'...
Wed, Jun 23 2021, 9:25 AM
If Yesterday's big to-do was Fed Chair Powell's testimony, today's will be the 5yr Treasury auction. Notably, Powell didn't have a big impact. His c...
Tue, Jun 22 2021, 5:05 PM
No Whammies From Powell. Bonds Like It
Today's only notable calendar item was the congressional testimony fr...
Tue, Jun 22 2021, 10:50 AM
The Fed's messaging is in a state of flux to some extent, as they move away from the "full speed ahead until further notice" and toward an evolving co...
Mon, Jun 21 2021, 4:29 PM
10yr yields may have hit their lowest levels in months in the wee hours of the morning and people may always perceive a bit too much correlation betwe...
Mon, Jun 21 2021, 4:23 PM
Treasury Trading Trends Coming and Going
Way back in early 2021, steepening was all the rage. That refers t...
Mon, Jun 21 2021, 11:24 AM
Last week was volatile for bonds with trepidation heading into (and out of) the Fed Announcement. A surprisingly strong reversal on Thu/Fri brought y...
Fri, Jun 18 2021, 3:52 PM
MBS Only Slightly Better While 10yr Shines
As discussed in the day ahead, the bond market is in the midst of...
Fri, Jun 18 2021, 11:04 AM
Our typical definition of "repricing" has to do with mortgage lender reprices, but the term has always existed beyond our little corner of the market....
Thu, Jun 17 2021, 4:31 PM
Strong Showing For Longer-Dated Bonds
With the Fed's dot plot in focus yesterday, the associated drama was h...
Thu, Jun 17 2021, 4:23 PM
It's Thursday on a volatile week for the bond market and thus time, once again, to play our favorite game: "no, rates didn't really do that." Sometime...
Thu, Jun 17 2021, 10:55 AM
After Wednesday's Fed-inspired rout, bond yields have done a great job finding support in the 1.56-1.59% area overnight amid high volume trading. All...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates were already drifting higher in the first half of the week, but that was nothing compared to today. This afternoon's Fed Announcement w...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 4:18 PM
Fed's Salty Dots Rock Bonds
As feared/anticipated, today was all about the "dots" (the dot plot that shows F...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 2:00 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jun 16 2021, 9:52 AM
There are 8 Fed announcements per year (barring emergencies). Today's announcement is one of the 4 that include updated economic projections (the "do...
Tue, Jun 15 2021, 4:15 PM
Mortgage rates had a great week last week, ultimately getting very close to the lowest levels since March. One of the main sources of motivation was t...
Tue, Jun 15 2021, 4:10 PM
Pre-Fed Paralysis Despite Some Interesting Data
Retail Sales down 1.3% and last month revised up to 0.9%? C...
Tue, Jun 15 2021, 9:00 AM
On weeks that close out with the big jobs report, an inordinate amount of headlines include a reference to the impending data. The same is true with ...
Mon, Jun 14 2021, 4:19 PM
New Week, New Sense of Urgency
The new week wasted no time in differentiating itself from the previous week ...
