Fri, Sep 3 2021, 11:23 AM
Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 235k versus a median forecast of 728k. Poll a hundred market strategists about the likely market impact and 99 of them wo...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 4:05 PM
Particularly Calm Before a Particularly Important NFP
The widest trading range of the week has been 4.5bps (...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 2:51 PM
Mortgage rates are based primarily on bonds. Bonds take cues from economic data (among other things). And tomorrow's big jobs report is the most consi...
Thu, Sep 2 2021, 10:10 AM
Ah, the Thursday before a Friday jobs report--much like a Forest Gump box of chocolates. They're typically fairly boring with movement that tends to ...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 5:07 PM
Much like yesterday, mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher , depending on the lender. And once again, the differences in pricing strategies...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 5:06 PM
Bonds Waiting For More Relevant Inspiration
Today's ADP employment data missed the mark by quite a bit. If ...
Wed, Sep 1 2021, 11:00 AM
The stated goal of the ADP Employment Report is to predict the final revision of the US government's non-farm payroll number. Assessing its efficacy ...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. The differences in pricing strategies stem from the timing of changes...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 4:21 PM
Weaker Data Offset by European Tapering Fears
Bonds improved after weaker economic data this morning. Trade...
Tue, Aug 31 2021, 12:09 PM
Tuesday morning wasted no time in confirming the relevance of economic data to the current bond market environment. When Chicago PMI came out weaker ...
Mon, Aug 30 2021, 5:35 PM
Jackson Hole Follow Through Helps Bonds Hold The Range
Bonds were at the top of their recent range last Frid...
Mon, Aug 30 2021, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates drifted lower again today, with the average lender getting back down to the lowest levels since the first week of August. In a general ...
Mon, Aug 30 2021, 11:31 AM
Last week's theme was simple: sell bonds until hearing what Fed Chair Powell had to say in his Jackson Hole speech, then buy bonds when Powell simply ...
Fri, Aug 27 2021, 3:23 PM
Powell Sticks to Script. Bonds Like It
Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech has come and gone without caus...
Fri, Aug 27 2021, 10:00 AM
Much has been made of the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium in 2021 and in a general sense throughout the years. On some years, the anticipation has prove...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 3:43 PM
Bonds Leveling Off But Not Out of The Woods
Bonds began the day with a test of the important technical ceili...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 2:36 PM
Mortgage rates stabilized today after moving higher at a moderately quick pace over the past 2 days. To be sure, today's rates are definitely higher t...
Thu, Aug 26 2021, 10:51 AM
Bonds are either on the doorstep of critical line in the sand, or they soon will be. These lines are drawn on the technical ceilings at 1.37% and 1.4...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 4:09 PM
Yields Searching For a Pre-Fed Ceiling
Although the week began in forgettable fashion, Tuesday saw yields mo...
Wed, Aug 25 2021, 8:06 AM
Although the week began in forgettable fashion, Tuesday saw yields move up at a moderate pace with no overt provocation. Indeed a quick glance at the ...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 4:32 PM
Increasingly Defensive Ahead of Jackson Hole
Bonds sold off moderately and steadily all day without any clea...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 2:36 PM
After a sharp increase to start the year and significant improvements between April and mid July, mortgage rates have been fairly flat for more than a...
Tue, Aug 24 2021, 10:37 AM
MBS and Treasuries do such a good job traveling together that it's especially notable when they diverge. That's doubly true on days like today where ...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 4:49 PM
Mortgage rates are only adjusted once per day by default. From there, the underlying bond market would need to improve or deteriorate by a certain amo...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 4:40 PM
Treasuries Slide Sideways as MBS Outperform
The most notable development today was the outperformance on the...
Mon, Aug 23 2021, 11:36 AM
The Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium has often served as a venue for the Fed Chair to offer a sneak preview of impending policy changes or simply t...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 5:35 PM
Rates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn't to say rates perfectly flat--simply tha...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 4:07 PM
Moderate Weakness For Uneventful Reasons
Bonds lost some ground today with 10yr yields up roughly 2bps headi...
Fri, Aug 20 2021, 10:33 AM
It's a good time to revisit the primer on illiquidity unless the term is 2nd nature for you (here it is). Illiquidity is definitely a factor today as ...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 4:31 PM
Bonds Finally Have a Boring Day
10yr yields traded in a range of less than 3bps during the domestic session ...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 3:25 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower today as the bond market improved for the 2nd straight day. When bonds prices move higher, bond yields (or rates) m...
Thu, Aug 19 2021, 11:23 AM
In late July, bonds rode a wave of momentum toward lower yields with many traders targeting the 1.25% zone in 10yr Treasuries. That floor was broken o...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 4:31 PM
Bonds Sell Rumor, Buy New on Inconsequential Fed Minutes
A lot has happened in the past 3 months--especially...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates haven't been skyrocketing, by any means, but they have been moving up in fits and starts over the past 2 weeks. Today was just another ...
Wed, Aug 18 2021, 10:28 AM
The Fed has increasingly been discussing its tapering strategy. They haven't been shy about saying so. In fact, at least 5 members have vocally supp...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 3:51 PM
What's Up With MBS Underperformance Today?
As long as we're not dealing with big, obvious, unique market rea...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 3:19 PM
Mortgage rates experienced an uptick in volatility last week as the broader bond market was hit with a big dose of new supply. In other words, between...
Tue, Aug 17 2021, 10:06 AM
The Retail Sales report is generally considered to be in the upper echelon of economic reports when it comes to bond market impact. As such, it's som...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 4:46 PM
Drifty Day, Treasuries Hold Weekly Gains, MBS Underperform.
With a strong move last Friday, the bond market ...
Mon, Aug 16 2021, 10:55 AM
Just when you thought rates were bouncing higher after hitting 6 month lows, the new week begins with bonds re-staking a claim to the recent, strong...
Fri, Aug 13 2021, 4:29 PM
Unexpected Snowball Rally After Consumer Sentiment Data
Snowball moves in markets, by their nature, tend to ...
Fri, Aug 13 2021, 10:30 AM
The current week fills a corrective role in the bigger picture, helping to officially mark the end of 4 straight months of accelerating improvement (w...
Thu, Aug 12 2021, 5:05 PM
Less Volatility For Bonds (For Now)
As the week winds down, a potentially scary shift into a steeper rising ...
Thu, Aug 12 2021, 10:03 AM
Yesterday marked "the roll" for 30yr fixed UMBS (what's this?), but that's not all that was rolling. The proverbial "good times" began--well, you kno...
Wed, Aug 11 2021, 6:51 PM
By now, it's no mystery that mortgage rates are significantly higher than they were last week. The bigger mystery had to do with what comes next. In s...
Wed, Aug 11 2021, 5:32 PM
Great Bounce After Auction. What Now?
We were hoping--perhaps even expecting (to some extent)--to see the r...
Wed, Aug 11 2021, 11:30 AM
Bonds have recently been on a rather sharp selling spree leading up to and away from last Friday's jobs report. After that it was the following Wedne...
Tue, Aug 10 2021, 3:28 PM
Corporate Bonds Making Life Tough This Week
As feared and expected, the combination of Treasury auctions and...
Tue, Aug 10 2021, 2:24 PM
After hitting 6-month lows early last week, mortgage rates bounced and have been moving higher ever since. The increases were moderate at first, but t...
Tue, Aug 10 2021, 12:00 PM
Bonds are still in the process of trying to find a ceiling after embarking on a decisive uptrend that began in the middle of last week and accelerated...
