Fri, Feb 19 2021, 5:54 PM
There's no precedent for the winning streak enjoyed by mortgage rates in the 2nd half of 2020. We've never seen so many new record lows in the same ye...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 3:22 PM
Surprisingly Swift Selling in The Bond Market; What's Next?
This week has been one of the most surprising se...
Fri, Feb 19 2021, 10:13 AM
Given recent temperature trends, we're well within our right to expect actual bears to be in hibernation. How about bond market bears? They've eaten...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 4:43 PM
No Easy Answers Today; Still Anyone's Game
Bonds were weaker earlier in the trading session but rallied back...
Thu, Feb 18 2021, 10:12 AM
We talked about momentum indicators being 'oversold' yesterday--a possible prelude to a friendly bounce in bonds. If that narrative is going to play ...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 4:18 PM
Volatility has returned to the mortgage market in grand fashion this week with many lenders quoting rates that are as much as a quarter of a point hig...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 4:13 PM
Looking For Silver Linings Despite Falling Sky
After a huge day of snowball selling yesterday, bonds started...
Wed, Feb 17 2021, 11:08 AM
Bonds have been hammered by selling pressure in 2021--especially in February. When it comes to many parts of the financial market, and especially bon...
Tue, Feb 16 2021, 4:18 PM
Recovery prospects, renewed focus on stimulus, inflation concerns, a brighter covid outlook, etc... All of these are reasons for an ongoing, gradual t...
Tue, Feb 16 2021, 4:06 PM
Panic In The Bond Market
It's no mystery that longer-term Treasury yields have been trending higher since Au...
Tue, Feb 16 2021, 9:28 AM
Last week ended with snowball selling in the bond market. Given the approach of a holiday weekend, there was a chance that the weakness was overdon...
Fri, Feb 12 2021, 1:10 PM
Snowball Selling in Bonds After Mid-Week Rally Fizzles
We were looking for a friendly correction in bonds th...
Fri, Feb 12 2021, 9:38 AM
As of Monday, bonds had closed at higher yields for 8 straight days. Such streaks beg for a correction. They rarely last longer. The correction bec...
Thu, Feb 11 2021, 3:24 PM
Friendly Bounce May Already Have Run Its Course
Friendly bounces after strong selling sprees are slightly mo...
Thu, Feb 11 2021, 9:27 AM
For the most part, this week has been "so far, so good" through Wednesday. Yields have pushed back nicely after topping out at the highest levels in ...
Wed, Feb 10 2021, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates haven't been moving much recently, but they've logged enough small victories to make it back to the lower levels seen on February 1st ....
Wed, Feb 10 2021, 3:23 PM
CPI and 10yr Auction Make a Case For a Near-Term Rate Ceiling
NOTE: charts look weak this morning despite st...
Wed, Feb 10 2021, 9:29 AM
Contrary to some of the wholesale price pressures suggested by recent reports (like the ISM manufacturing "prices paid" component, which rose to the h...
Tue, Feb 9 2021, 3:18 PM
Locking vs Floating After Underwhelming "Rally Day."
The recent losing streak in the bond market made it inc...
Tue, Feb 9 2021, 9:27 AM
After 8 straight days with yields closing higher than they opened, bonds are starting out in stronger territory with a chance to reverse the curse. T...
Mon, Feb 8 2021, 4:03 PM
Reasons For Both Hope and Fear In Today's Trading
Bonds have been in a consistent trend leading toward highe...
Mon, Feb 8 2021, 10:25 AM
There were spooky stories told around bond market campfires late last week. The monster in those stories was the looming specter of the Treasury au...
Fri, Feb 5 2021, 5:16 PM
Treasury Slide Transcends NFP; MBS Outperform
Bond yields rose overnight--well before NFP came out--followin...
Fri, Feb 5 2021, 10:03 AM
The day is young, but off to an uncommonly volatile start following 2 key inputs. The overnight session brought news of the Senate passing the $1.9 t...
Thu, Feb 4 2021, 3:54 PM
Markets May Be Underestimating Tomorrow's Jobs Report
Today's trading session was rather uneventful for b...
Thu, Feb 4 2021, 10:05 AM
This is a bit of a paradoxical outlook. In short, things have been consistently downbeat enough for the bond market that we're due to see a friendly d...
Wed, Feb 3 2021, 4:20 PM
Bad Vibes Persist For Bonds and Rates
Bonds began the day in weaker shape, thus keeping the threat of an ong...
Wed, Feb 3 2021, 9:52 AM
Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the bond market is in the midst of a big-picture correction from the all-time lows seen in the middle of ...
Tue, Feb 2 2021, 3:44 PM
Mortgage Rates were steady to slightly lower yesterday even though prevailing trends in the bond market suggested caution. Today's trading is a differ...
Tue, Feb 2 2021, 3:39 PM
Mid-Day Recovery, But Broader Risks Remain
Bonds did well enough yesterday to suggest yields might not be in...
Tue, Feb 2 2021, 9:47 AM
Between Friday and Monday, it looked like the bond market might try to hold at slightly better levels than those implied by the recent bounce at 1.0% ...
Mon, Feb 1 2021, 3:42 PM
Fairly Balanced Day For Bonds and Fairly Balanced Outlook For Now
This morning's commentary discusses the tw...
Mon, Feb 1 2021, 3:40 PM
Mortgage Rates did well last week, with the average lender getting very close to long-term lows by Wednesday. After that, however, volatility in the b...
Mon, Feb 1 2021, 9:14 AM
Bonds find themselves in an interesting position heading into February. On the one hand, there's a well-established tepid recovery narrative that coi...
Fri, Jan 29 2021, 5:35 PM
Decent Recovery After Scary Start But Risks Remain
10yr yields were as high as 1.105% at one point today, bu...
Fri, Jan 29 2021, 4:52 PM
After spiking in early January, interest rates returned to near-all-time-low levels by the middle of the week. By the end, however, the market began t...
Fri, Jan 29 2021, 9:40 AM
Yesterday's bond market weakness ran the risk of signalling an end to the winning streak enjoyed since January 12th. Those gains were fairly steady a...
Thu, Jan 28 2021, 3:52 PM
Why Are We Losing Ground Today and What's The Implication?
Due to its timing and size, today's bond market w...
Thu, Jan 28 2021, 8:31 AM
Bonds have rallied or held steady every day this week and the net effect is a visit to the 1.0% psychological floor for 10yr yields. Psychology aside...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 4:59 PM
Very Tame Reaction to The Fed Despite Bond-Friendly Message
Bonds took a bit of a lead-off heading into toda...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 2:02 PM
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum ...
Wed, Jan 27 2021, 9:42 AM
With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%. Today's early gai...
Tue, Jan 26 2021, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates were mixed to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. "Higher" is a relative term, in this case as the average loan seeker is u...
Tue, Jan 26 2021, 3:58 PM
MBS Outperform Treasuries Thank to Light Supply at Fed Buying Operation
Treasuries didn't gain any new groun...
Tue, Jan 26 2021, 9:44 AM
10yr yields broke below 1.075% yesterday--a level that had proven tough to break despite multiple attempts in the past 2 weeks. The move followed sev...
Mon, Jan 25 2021, 4:24 PM
What's a bond market rally and why should mortgage rates care? There are all kinds of bonds. US Treasuries would be the quintessential example, but th...
Mon, Jan 25 2021, 4:17 PM
Strong Move in Treasuries But MBS Underperform (Significantly)
While much of the world of finance and instit...
Mon, Jan 25 2021, 9:31 AM
Another week, another chance to see if bonds will continue to avoid confrontation with the boundaries of the recent range. 1.075% emerged as the floo...
Fri, Jan 22 2021, 4:24 PM
Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note
It's rare to see non-holidays Fridays in January be quite as underwhel...
Fri, Jan 22 2021, 4:23 PM
While it wasn't quite the biggest surprise of 2020, the strength of the housing market was one of the best. The just-released numbers for December kee...
