Fri, Sep 4 2020, 4:31 PM
Perfect Storm in Bonds Pushing Yields Quickly Higher
Between the 5-day rally running the risk of getting tir...
Fri, Sep 4 2020, 4:25 PM
Almost everywhere you look, low mortgage rates are in the news. Experts are claiming they'll remain low or move lower for years to come. They might be...
Fri, Sep 4 2020, 9:36 AM
Due to the "anything can happen" nature of financial markets AND the fact that traders can trade what we can predict, I rarely take an unequivocal sta...
Thu, Sep 3 2020, 4:58 PM
Lock vs Float Considerations Ahead of NFP and Holiday Weekend
Bonds did well at face value today, but there ...
Thu, Sep 3 2020, 3:41 PM
Mortgage rates have improved nicely over the past week. While a lot of this improvement is due to the delay of the new refinance fee announced earlier...
Thu, Sep 3 2020, 9:34 AM
The premise for today is remarkably simple. In fact, it really doesn't need many words by the time you see the first chart. After Powell and the F...
Wed, Sep 2 2020, 3:57 PM
Mortgage rates have improved noticeably in the past few business days, largely due to the delay of a new fee announced earlier this month. Ironically,...
Wed, Sep 2 2020, 3:40 PM
Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It
Today offers firm confirmation of the range brea...
Wed, Sep 2 2020, 9:20 AM
If you're like me, your initial impression of the financial market is that it's "thing" with a mind of its own-- always on , always moving, with thous...
Tue, Sep 1 2020, 4:22 PM
For most lenders, mortgage rates improved again today, adding to the 3-week lows achieved yesterday. We normally view mortgage rate movement primarily...
Tue, Sep 1 2020, 4:05 PM
New Month, New Trend?
We often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bo...
Tue, Sep 1 2020, 9:06 AM
While it's definitely not a hard and fast rule, we often see a clear bias toward strength or weakness during any given month in the bond market. July...
Mon, Aug 31 2020, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates improved nicely today with the average lender more convincingly back under the 3.0% threshold for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. In...
Mon, Aug 31 2020, 3:44 PM
Bonds Making Case For Friendly Technical Bounce
Last Friday, we were already eyeing the technical ceiling at...
Mon, Aug 31 2020, 9:28 AM
Just like early June, we're once again forced to consider that several weeks of upward movement in yields means the lows are behind us for now. Just ...
Fri, Aug 28 2020, 4:55 PM
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, and the direction of that movement depends greatly on how any given lender reacted to the week's big news from ...
Fri, Aug 28 2020, 4:45 PM
Nice Recovery Today, But Is It a Trap?
If the Fed is doubling down on its inflation goals, it makes sense fo...
Fri, Aug 28 2020, 10:06 AM
Yesterday was "interesting," to say the least. The Fed surprised markets with another unscheduled policy update and bonds traded accordingly. The su...
Thu, Aug 27 2020, 3:46 PM
Let's keep this short and simple. There are some major misconceptions out there today and for many of you, it's very important to address them. What a...
Thu, Aug 27 2020, 3:42 PM
Has Everything Changed After Powell Speech?
Powell's speech was the only Fed communication on the calendar t...
Thu, Aug 27 2020, 8:51 AM
If you don't want to read to the end to get the answer posed in the headline, here is a spoiler:
Yes, a new framework is both good and bad for bonds...
Wed, Aug 26 2020, 4:21 PM
LLPA Impact vs Powell Speech. Time to Lock?
Much has been made (by news media... not bond market participan...
Wed, Aug 26 2020, 4:05 PM
With several major developments and interesting milestones in the mortgage world, I'm seeing a lot more confusion than normal. So let's clear it up wi...
Wed, Aug 26 2020, 9:58 AM
There's a global pandemic. On the one hand, it seems to be improving. On the other, it's responsible for a potentially permanent shift in the US lab...
Tue, Aug 25 2020, 4:28 PM
Two weeks ago, Fannie and Freddie announced a new guaranty fee (aka "g-fee") for virtually all refinances. To say this has been a hot topic for the mo...
Tue, Aug 25 2020, 4:21 PM
New Curveball as LLPA Just Got Delayed Until Dec 1
There are two huddle videos today. The newest and most r...
Tue, Aug 25 2020, 10:08 AM
Any conversation about momentum, victory, or defeat in the bond market must be prefaced with the acknowledgment that we're dealing with what would his...
Mon, Aug 24 2020, 3:49 PM
More Defensive But Not Without Hope
2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in...
Mon, Aug 24 2020, 10:21 AM
Last week did a nice job of confirming a ceiling in Treasury yields after the previous week saw rates move sharply higher. At the same time the S&P...
Fri, Aug 21 2020, 5:18 PM
Several new reports confirm the housing market is soaring right now, but the headlines don't tell the whole story. On Friday, the National Association...
Fri, Aug 21 2020, 5:17 PM
A Week of Reassurance For The Bond Market
Last week saw the first major break higher after a calm, sustained...
Fri, Aug 21 2020, 9:19 AM
Coronavirus obviously ushered in an era of record low rates. The ongoing challenges and uncertainties are fairly well understood. They have a wide s...
Thu, Aug 20 2020, 4:58 PM
Mortgage rates moved a bit lower today, on average, but that's not what most of the mortgage-related headlines are saying today. Reason being, journal...
Thu, Aug 20 2020, 4:49 PM
MBS Underperforming Treasuries, But Broader Trends Are Decent
The mortgage market continues coping with the ...
Thu, Aug 20 2020, 10:01 AM
Realistically, Europe has been as big of a friend to US bond markets as the Fed. If it weren't for Greek concerns and the mounting systemic crisis, U...
Wed, Aug 19 2020, 4:43 PM
Fed Minutes and LLPA Hangover Hurting Rates
Mortgage rates have been quite rebellious in 2020 when it comes ...
Wed, Aug 19 2020, 3:43 PM
Mortgage rates are still coping with the after-effects of last week's surprise implementation of a new fee on refinances. The fee in question is techn...
Wed, Aug 19 2020, 9:02 AM
I talked yesterday about rates "reconnecting with the bond market," and that's an assertion that needs some more clarification on several levels. By ...
Tue, Aug 18 2020, 4:55 PM
Rates Are Reconnecting With Bond Market Movement
After last week's LLPA news, lenders pulled back pricing fo...
Tue, Aug 18 2020, 9:29 AM
It's age-old conventional wisdom. Buy stocks, sell bonds, vice versa, risk-on vs risk-off. One of the most common questions I receive over the years...
Mon, Aug 17 2020, 4:30 PM
Mortgage rates managed to improve modestly for the average lender today, but they remain significantly higher than they were before last week's regula...
Mon, Aug 17 2020, 3:57 PM
Mortgage Market Looking For a Better Week For Two Reasons
Last week was unpleasant in the mortgage world, to...
Mon, Aug 17 2020, 9:25 AM
Last week was unpleasant in the mortgage world, to say the least. Rates suffered a double whammy due to the surprise 50bp LLPA on refis and the trend ...
Fri, Aug 14 2020, 5:47 PM
Boring Day For Bonds, But Tension Remains For Mortgages
Rates continued reeling (depending on the lender) fr...
Fri, Aug 14 2020, 5:46 PM
Some mortgage companies have generated buzz by advertising 30yr fixed rates of 1.99%. While it is possible to obtain such a rate, there is definitely ...
Fri, Aug 14 2020, 9:57 AM
First thing's first, any conversation about rates in a mortgage market context would be incomplete without considering this week's regulatory drama. ...
Thu, Aug 13 2020, 6:04 PM
At face value, the bonds that underlie the mortgage market didn't sustain too much damage today. If there was nothing else to inspire lender rate chan...
Thu, Aug 13 2020, 5:42 PM
Mortgage Market Rocked by Instant Doubling of Regulatory Fees
Consider this: the average guaranty fee (charg...
Thu, Aug 13 2020, 12:14 PM
This began as my normal daily "day ahead" article, but as you can see based on the time of day and the following content, it turned into something els...
Wed, Aug 12 2020, 9:04 PM
In what can only be described as a cash grab, Fannie and Freddie's regulator just announced a new tax on refinances. Granted, it's not technically a t...
