Fri, Jul 17 2020, 4:46 PM
Markets continue to focus on coronavirus numbers first and foremost. When the news is good , we tend to see stocks and rates move higher. When the new...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 3:06 PM
Very Uneventful Week in The Bigger Picture
Heading into this week, we were hoping to see some consensus betw...
Fri, Jul 17 2020, 8:59 AM
One of the market themes that has been most noticeable and most reliable post-covid is that of the "stock lever"--our in-house term for the phenomenon...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower this morning as lenders got caught up with recent improvement in the bond market. The bond market is the primary considerat...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 3:31 PM
The Downside of Ultra Low Rates
Actions and reactions are as true in the bond market as in the natural world...
Thu, Jul 16 2020, 8:31 AM
It used to be that rate watchers and mortgage originators could simply tune in to the economic data on any given day and expect a fairly logical and...
Wed, Jul 15 2020, 3:27 PM
Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook
Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused...
Wed, Jul 15 2020, 8:58 AM
Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused such a huge paradigm shift that it's easy to lose sight of its importance as a day-to-day mark...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 4:56 PM
Mortgage rates recovered to some extent today, after moving slightly higher on Friday and yesterday. The bond market (which underlies rate movement) w...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 3:36 PM
Bonds Surprisingly Resilient After Last Week's Scare
After last week's somewhat scary move higher in rates, ...
Tue, Jul 14 2020, 8:49 AM
Once again, stocks and bonds were largely flat in the overnight session and domestic trading begins with both sides of the market close to yesterday's...
Mon, Jul 13 2020, 3:38 PM
Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought...
Mon, Jul 13 2020, 8:51 AM
Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on all of thi...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:46 PM
It should no longer come as a surprise that the pandemic continues to create never-before-seen circumstances in all corners of society. Here in the ho...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 4:28 PM
Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary)
Just as bonds were settling into a nice ne...
Fri, Jul 10 2020, 9:04 AM
Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted s...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:25 PM
There are two kinds of headlines about mortgage rates today: those that rely on the weekly survey-based data published each Thursday by Freddie Mac, a...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 4:03 PM
Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in...
Thu, Jul 9 2020, 9:18 AM
We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yi...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:08 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged today for the average lender. That means they remain at all-time lows that are even lower than the all-time lows seen du...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 4:07 PM
Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game
Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain s...
Wed, Jul 8 2020, 8:49 AM
There really wasn't much by way of riveting new developments on the radar heading into this week. A smattering of Fed speakers and relatively inconse...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 4:28 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates were already at all-time lows yesterday, and had been holding at those levels for at least 3 business days for the average lender. I no...
Tue, Jul 7 2020, 8:52 AM
Conventional wisdom holds that stocks tend to do better when bonds do worse. The logic is simple. When investors feel more optimistic or more risk-t...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 3:58 PM
Mortgage rates barely budged for the third straight day, which is welcome news considering they are at all-time lows. The stability comes in spite of ...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 3:44 PM
Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?
Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data...
Mon, Jul 6 2020, 8:50 AM
Last week ended with a paradoxical reaction to a jobs report that was much stronger than expected. Although bonds did lose ground at first, they end...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 3:26 PM
This week's economic data included the biggest-ever gain in Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market. Meanwhile, mortgage rates ...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 3:26 PM
Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for...
Thu, Jul 2 2020, 8:19 AM
Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation (2.509m) and for the gap between job growth and forecasts. ...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 4:48 PM
Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, thus leaving the average lender at all-time lows for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. It continues to...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 4:36 PM
Limited Reaction to Headlines and Fed Minutes
After a quiet trading day yesterday, today proved to be even q...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 3:32 PM
The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting were released today. While there's not much left to be said when they've already been so clear about kee...
Wed, Jul 1 2020, 8:37 AM
After a very slow start on Monday, yesterday's month-end trading session proved to be more consequential for Treasuries with yields ultimately rising ...
Tue, Jun 30 2020, 4:46 PM
Surprisingly Quiet Quarter-End Trading. No Objections Here
The last trading day of any given month (especia...
Tue, Jun 30 2020, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates managed another slight improvement today, which means the average lender is offering new all-time low rates for the 4th time this month...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 3:52 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today, bringing the average lender right in line with all-time lows . Averages aside, several lenders ...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 2:59 PM
Lock vs Float Considerations With Rates at All-Time Lows
Stocks and bond yields are still in holding pattern...
Mon, Jun 29 2020, 8:51 AM
This will be a deceptively informative week for financial markets. The biggest consideration continues to be the exponential growth of covid cases in...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:44 PM
The fates of the economy, the housing market, and interest rates remain closely intertwined with coronavirus. The pandemic is clearly responsible for ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 4:41 PM
The Trend is Officially Broken. Welcome Back To The Range
Bond yields moved lower today, thus breaking out ...
Fri, Jun 26 2020, 8:31 AM
Although markets are still sideways relative to the bigger volatility of the previous 3 weeks, bond yields have trickled lower this week. This brought...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower today, bringing the average lender very close to all-time lows . The caveat continues to be that day-to-day rate c...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 2:50 PM
Lots of Indecision, But The Outcome Should Make Sense
Both stocks and bonds are trading sideways after takin...
Thu, Jun 25 2020, 9:08 AM
Let's get the housekeeping out of the way first. With so much talk in the news about the coronavirus effect on GDP, I figured I'd point out that toda...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 3:28 PM
Rising Rates Thwarted By Coronavirus Concerns
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 3:26 PM
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower today, but face an uphill battle in general. They fell very quickly as coronavirus first hit financial markets. Th...
Wed, Jun 24 2020, 9:30 AM
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but rates are low due to an unprecedented global emergency. Unless coronavirus situations deteriorates signif...
Tue, Jun 23 2020, 4:16 PM
It seems almost melodramatic to refer to any modest increase in mortgage rates these days. If we were to go over each lender's rate sheet with a fine ...
