Fri, Sep 28 2018, 4:25 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly lower again today, but there are some caveats. First of all, the average lender wasn't in substantially better shape comp...
Fri, Sep 28 2018, 8:31 AM
September has been a long month for the bond market as rates quickly trudged back up to levels that aligned with our more pessimistic assumptions for ...
Thu, Sep 27 2018, 4:43 PM
In the past week, we've seen 10yr yields rise up and over 3.06%, flirt with 3.10%+ and come back down. This has happened only one other time since ...
Thu, Sep 27 2018, 4:13 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly again today. Over the past 2 days, we've managed to undo more than a week of damage, with rates back at their best levels...
Thu, Sep 27 2018, 9:09 AM
Yesterday's Fed announcement--specifically, Fed Chair Powell's press conference remarks--set bonds up for a potential bounce. This would come at a c...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 4:59 PM
For a while, it looked like today would turn out to be one of those "dud" Fed days where actual market movement woefully undershoots potential market ...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates improved in a somewhat noticeable way for the first time in weeks following today's policy announcement from the Fed. Actually, to be f...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 2:08 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and th...
Wed, Sep 26 2018, 9:22 AM
In trying to put together a chart for this morning, I kept running into a wall. It had to do with the likely outcomes associated with different Fed f...
Tue, Sep 25 2018, 4:35 PM
Bonds began the day in weaker territory this morning, and they didn't need anyone to twist their arm in getting there. That was our first clue that...
Tue, Sep 25 2018, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged for some lenders today while others were in slightly higher territory. Either way, that leaves the average lender at the...
Tue, Sep 25 2018, 9:11 AM
We talk sometimes about bonds taking a "lead-off" (like in that sport that a few of us still remember). Well, at least I talk about bonds taking a le...
Mon, Sep 24 2018, 4:36 PM
Have you heard? The Fed announcement is coming up on Wednesday. While you've undoubtedly heard about that more than a few times (unless this is yo...
Mon, Sep 24 2018, 3:38 PM
Mortgage rates are having a bleak September, having risen at least an eighth of a percentage point in all cases and by a quarter of a point in many ca...
Mon, Sep 24 2018, 9:11 AM
It would be a tad dramatic to say that rates are at a crossroads as we head into the end of September, unless there's any additional weakness this wee...
Fri, Sep 21 2018, 5:28 PM
By today, it became clear that bonds were fully locked into a sideways consolidation in a range defined by the highs seen on Wed/Thu and the lows mark...
Fri, Sep 21 2018, 4:46 PM
Mortgage rates actually fell today, on average--something they haven't been able to say all week, or indeed at nearly any time during the past 4 weeks...
Fri, Sep 21 2018, 10:15 AM
More often than not, when I use the word "believe" (or belief), it's in some vague and positive context. For instance, something like "bond buyers ar...
Thu, Sep 20 2018, 5:28 PM
After a series of demoralizing losses, it feels like some small victory for bonds to simply remain sideways today. That wasn't necessarily a given ...
Thu, Sep 20 2018, 4:40 PM
Mortgage rates were mostly able to hold steady today, although they technically moved just a bit higher and that technically leaves them at the highes...
Thu, Sep 20 2018, 8:18 AM
One of the themes we often revisit in times of trouble is the long-term bull market in bonds. This traces back to the 80's and provides a shockingly ...
Wed, Sep 19 2018, 4:36 PM
The titular question could be taken two ways . Is the selling pressure in bonds over? Is the "low rate environment" that's been in effect since mid-2...
Wed, Sep 19 2018, 3:37 PM
Mortgage rates are in bad shape . At some point in the past 3 days (depends on the lender), top tier 30yr fixed rate offerings hit their highest level...
Tue, Sep 18 2018, 4:17 PM
Remember early 2018 when the fear was compounded by this list of bad actors?
increased Treasury issuance to pay for the revenue shortfall in the...
Tue, Sep 18 2018, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates edged up to 4-year highs with yesterday's bond market losses and things went from bad to worse today. Bond markets (which underlie and ...
Tue, Sep 18 2018, 9:14 AM
Not to be confused with the Red Sea, which is an actual place, the sea of red in the title is merely a reference to general bias toward weakness in bo...
Mon, Sep 17 2018, 5:06 PM
10yr yields briefly hit their highest levels since May 23rd this morning after one large trade started a snowball sell-off in Treasuries. Before th...
Mon, Sep 17 2018, 4:39 PM
Mortgage rates may have had a fairly bad day last Friday, but today was worse . Today officially saw the average lender back at rates not seen since M...
Mon, Sep 17 2018, 9:18 AM
September continues to be an unfriendly month for bonds, marked by an unfriendly trend that has carried yields almost exclusively higher. Some of t...
Fri, Sep 14 2018, 4:48 PM
August was nice. September is mean... at least if you're a bond.
Investors wanted you in August when it was still unclear whether or not Turkey...
Fri, Sep 14 2018, 4:18 PM
Mortgage rates had a bad day. Even after a weaker reading on Retail Sales (something that normally helps), the bond market lost ground. Unfortunately,...
Fri, Sep 14 2018, 8:32 AM
The question posed in the title is just a bit too big for us to cover in this humble "day ahead" post, but we can touch on a few key points. I just t...
Thu, Sep 13 2018, 4:53 PM
Bond markets were clearly interested in today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. It generated a larger single minute of volume than the minute follow...
Thu, Sep 13 2018, 3:34 PM
Mortgage rates fell modestly today, following a weaker-than-expected report on inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices...
Thu, Sep 13 2018, 9:12 AM
Right off the bat, with respect to the headline, I'll let you know that the answer is going to be "it depends." More on that in a moment. Bonds are...
Wed, Sep 12 2018, 4:06 PM
Today brought two events that should theoretically have helped bonds: a much weaker producer level inflation reading (2.4 vs 2.7 forecast for core...
Wed, Sep 12 2018, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates managed to remain unchanged today despite the fact that underlying bond markets were stronger. Stronger bond markets are typically asso...
Tue, Sep 11 2018, 4:43 PM
With no intent of drawing any parallels to Hurricane Florence, bond markets are battening down their hatches in advance of a perfect storm of data and...
Tue, Sep 11 2018, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates held fairly steady this morning, keeping them in line with the highest levels since early August. As the day progressed, underlying bon...
Tue, Sep 11 2018, 9:18 AM
Overnight weakness in bonds sets us up to test some more serious boundaries today. As seen in the chart below (the same chart we've been watching f...
Mon, Sep 10 2018, 4:45 PM
Perhaps traders were tired? Perhaps they are still on high alert but just haven't gotten to the week's more meaningful events yet? Either way, the...
Mon, Sep 10 2018, 3:10 PM
Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, depending on the lender . Many lenders ended up raising rates last Friday afternoon as underlying bond mark...
Mon, Sep 10 2018, 10:58 AM
Bonds/rates are in the process of defending their castle. Their way of life inside those walls could be thought of as the general maintenance of a lo...
Fri, Sep 7 2018, 4:27 PM
Today's bond market wrap is as simple as the headline. Average hourly earnings or AHE is occasionally responsible for some impressive moves in bond...
Fri, Sep 7 2018, 2:53 PM
Mortgage rates rose moderately today (depending on the lender). It was enough to bring them back to the highest levels since early August. Additionall...
Fri, Sep 7 2018, 8:33 AM
This morning's first chart is actually Private Payrolls (as opposed to nonfarm payrolls). Reason being: NFP accounts for Census Bureau hiring which c...
Thu, Sep 6 2018, 4:39 PM
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session, but only slightly. The onset of domestic trading saw a stronger contingent of traders lined up to buy bon...
Thu, Sep 6 2018, 4:06 PM
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. The discrepancy stems from mid-day bond market gains that were just bar...
Thu, Sep 6 2018, 10:24 AM
I've been pretty bearish on bonds, in general, since the end of 2016. Against that backdrop, we can of course still look for tactical opportunities, ...
Wed, Sep 5 2018, 4:45 PM
The first two trading days of September introduce a somewhat serious threat to the calm, sideways range that dominated the past 3 weeks. Granted, the...
